Week 12 looks like a low scoring week on paper with only 4 teams projected to score over 26 points. It looks like lots of value at RB with underperforming studs like Barkley and Elliott both sub $8k. There are lots of injuries to monitor which may lead to some value opening up as more news becomes available. Let’s keep our ears to the ground. Also…Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 


Matt Ryan, $6700, Atlanta Falcons

15% projected ownership

Ryan is the second highest priced quarterback on the slate and is deservedly so. After starting the season white hot, “Matty Ice” has cooled off with 2 sub 20 fantasy point performances. This spot couldn’t get any better for Ryan. The Falcons are at home in the dome, taking on the Buccaneers, who rank 2nd worst in passing TDs allowed (25), 2nd worst in passing yards allowed (3034), 3rd worst in completions allowed (263) and 2nd worst in DKPts allowed (25.9 avg/game.) Eat the good chalk with the Ryan/Julio stacks.

Baker Mayfield, $5900, Cleveland Browns

11% projected ownership

Mayfield finally makes his debut to the article for 2019 and it only took 12 weeks! A massive bust in seasonal leagues, Baker gets the luxury of a roads Dolphins team to help get things going. The visiting Dolphins have been (how to put this lightly…) generous through the air and on the ground. The Fins are giving up a 22.6 per game/avg to opposing QB while ranking bottom 4 in passing touchdowns allowed. At $5900, Mayfield’s got 4x “Baked” into his price. And I’m not sorry for all the puns, you guys!

Chalk QB:


Also Consider: 

Winston, Tannehill, Trubisky


Rex Burkhead, $3700, New England Patriots

.10% projected ownership

Burkhead may go sub 1% owned Sunday and I wouldn’t be surprised. When looking at team totals, I like to uncover which players will produce with higher team totals. In this case, it’s lead me to Burkhead. Sony Michel has been horrible for awhile now and the Pats are 6.5 point home favorites with a team total of 26.25. The Cowboys are bottom 10 in FPts, receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. Burkhead ranks 3rd in DVOA at the position this week. I think Bellichick gives Rex some run at home against the Cowboys. Remember the old adage in fantasy football, always play the Pats running back that Dookie suggests. 

Alvin Kamara, $8200, New Orleans Saints

22% projected ownership

We haven’t seen a ceiling game from Kamara since week 3’s 37 point outburst. This week’s matchup against Carolina is setting up for a very nice spot for such a situation. The Saints’ offensive identity continues to be the big 3 Brees/Kamara/MT. After missing 3 games with injury, Kamara finally handled his roughly 40% MS of touches workload including 40% of Red Zone rushes in Week 11.  The rival Panthers are allowing a league worst 15 touchdowns to opposing running backs.  

Derrick Henry, $6900, Tennessee Titans

16% projected ownership

Coming off 2 dominant performances against porous, rush defenses of CAR and KC, Henry will take on the Jags. The last time these two teams faced off, Henry was held to only 11.6 DKPts. Since then, Tannehill has become the new starting quarterback and has breathed some life back into this offense. Over the last month, Henry ranks 2nd in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. The Jags are 5th worst against the run over the past month and have given up the 9th most DKPts to opposing running backs on the season. They are also giving up a per/game average of 27.2 DKPts which would put Henry at 4x his salary (given he can reach that average.) 

Chalk RB:


Also Consider:

CMC (matchup proof yet matchup is worrisome), Conner (if he goes)


Julio Jones, $8000, Atlanta Falcons

23% projected ownership

Julio is the lock of locks this week, in the dome against the Bucs. No team gives up more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Buccaneers and it’s not close (31.7 game/avg). While the Bucs allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends, they have been proudly stout against the run (ranking 6th best versus the rush). The O/U is the highest on the slate sitting at 51. This game sets up as an obvious shoot out and I want all the players from both sides of the ball. 

Allen Robinson, $6500, Chicago Bears

7% projected ownership

Game log watchers (and Mitch Trubisky watchers) will be reticent to roster Allen Robinson despite his great matchup. Having failed to reach 15 DKPts since Week 7 and given the absolute dreadful quarterback play, can you really blame them? I’m willing to take a chance with A-Rob here because of this great matchup though.  Robinson is expected to see quite a bit of Deandre Baker, who according to PFF is the best WR/CB Matchup. Baker is 7th worst in yards allowed and the Giants overall give up the 3rd most FPts to opposing wide receivers.  

Chalk WR:

Evans, OBJ

Also Consider:

Godwin, Ridley, Marvin Jones, Landry, Tyrell Williams, Gabriel, Chark, Parker


Zach Ertz, $6000, Philadelphia Eagles

13% projected ownership

Another player who hasn’t lived up to his draft capital is Eagles’ tight end, Zach Ertz. For much of the season, he has had middling success as has the rest of the team. He does seem to be coming on as of late, however. Having logged back to back games with 28.3 and 18.4 DKPts. In these 2 outings, he has caught at least 9 balls on 11 targets.  The opposing Seahawks aren’t normally known as a place to attack with tight ends but over the last 4 weeks, they rank last in the league to the position. I have him projected for 100 yards and a score which would smash his salary of $6k. 

Also Consider:




Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!


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