Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty
This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 12 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues. I combined all together rankings which I call my all in one ranking (AIO). I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty.
Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 12 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.
The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labeled.
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These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays from High Shoot-out games.
KEY Predicted High Shoot Out Week 12 Games – 2 this week.
Notes for this week.
PHI vs SEA is High Shoot-out but both teams have tougher defenses. Vegas is saying these teams can score many points even against tough game scripts.
OAK v NYJ. Easy defenses but Vegas suggest the offensive output capability is still less than what it would take to bring the game up to High Shoot Out.
CLE vs MIA low total predicted but Miami has been an improving production team
I lean-to moving OAK vs NYJ/CLE vs MIA up in point totals but suggest caution for the PHI vs SEA game as being a lower total.
Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics
The following tables highlight the Week 12 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 11 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).
An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have Easy defenses (Green), Above Average Easy defenses (Light Green), Below Average Tough defenses (light red), and Very Tough Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs Tough).
- Deeper Positional DAPs can spot flaws in tough defenses.
- Also extreme weakness in a poor defense.
- Find the extremes as use for week 12 lineups or DFS adjustments.
Interesting Fun Facts for DFS etc.
- Easiest TB except the toughest in RB DAP- 0 DAP?
- KC average but so easy to RBs 100 RB DAP?
- CAR/LAC/BUF Tough except for the RB at 67/83/75 RB DAPs
- MIN seems tough but 88 WR DAP?
- CHI Tough except for RB at 77 DAP.
- CIN Easy except for 64 WR DAP
- PIT Tough but 80 TE DAP?
- TB/ARI 120 TE DAPs. All-day Play. Missing Hooper this week-Sad
- Extremes are Key
Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs DAPs Combinational Landscape
The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in a week 11. Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics?
The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups and DFS plays as well.
These figures highlight the landscapes for week 12. Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings.
Vegas with DAP Metrics Intersections
Use these charts to plan week 12 seasonal lineups and DFS plays. Hunt for these Hot-spots for key DFS moves/Trade/Waivers.
HIGH Shoot-Out Week 11 Games
This week is of extremes 2 High vs 5 Low Games. I would then move to the 2 and away from the low. Please consider my Notes above on the SEA vs PHI game etc.
The DFS key may be collecting surprises in the other games. Find surprises!
Note Passing excepted in TB vs ATL as both defenses tough on RBs.
Above Average Scoring Week 11 Games
I consider the DAPs above 60 in a tough background deserve extra thoughts. I use landscape top down analysis using the Vegas suggestions with DAPs. See the positive scripts below.
- NO RB WRs
- NE RB TE
- SF RB TE
Below Average Scoring Week 11 Games
See the positive scripts below.
- IND QB/WR passing
- OAK QB/WR
- NYJ RB/QB/WR/TE- All-day Plays
- MIA WR
- CLE RB/QB/WR
Low Scoring Week 11 Games
I note the WAS vs DET are a battle of easy defenses and thus more shoot-out than thought in this group. I might focus more on this game for DFS as well.
See the positive scripts below.
- WAS RB/QB/WR
- DET RB/TE
- TEN RB
- JAX TE
- NYG RB
- CHI RB/QB/WR
- PIT RB/QB/WR
- CIN TE
- DEN RB
Team Player Rankings Averages Week 12
My Landscape fantasy painting for week 12 also includes an overview of each team and a grand player FSP Ranking (Fantasy Sports Professor Rankings) average. These rankings should move you to the top teams and away from the lower teams.
In beginning my weekly rankings I obviously use Vegas Metrics and DAPs (See Above). Also, I calculate all players I rank in the week and get the average FSP Ranking. The raw averages and scaled averages give us a nice Team Level landscape which is useful I think about generating DFS and seasonal lineups.
In general, these metric points to the direction of my choices on average. DFS Stacks might be better within positive teams this week. I highlighted the week 12 high average teams Bright Green vs low teams Red Stained.
Visual Plot for Week 12 Team Scaled FSP Ranks
NO seems a powerful team this week. Cautions for DEN/CHI/MIA/WAS.
Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team
The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:
- In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
- Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
- Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
- You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty
- Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
- Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
- However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
- *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty
Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels
Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my rankings would be less accurate!
You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays.
Uncertainty Levels for Week 12 Teams
I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Avg, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, %A and %L. The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 12 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Colorized Teams are more uncertain this week!
I annotated for week 12 the teams
- Low in uncertainty ( green colorization)
- High in uncertainty (red colorization)
The table and graph display the week 12 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams with highly ranked players. Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings.
The Plot of Week 12 Uncertainty Teams
Nice Visual for UNC levels. Focus on these for DFS move to the lower UNC teams if all else is equal! Extremes in NYG/TEN/CAE/GB/IND/PIT and that implies caution as your plays.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty
I present my week 12 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (Purple) to Low (Yellow). I combine my PPR/HALF PPR/Non-PPR rankings for an all in one (AIO) experience. I have metrics that suggest it may be better for fantasy players to see/use a global ranking.
Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view for your analysis.
The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system and thus they have only one UNC level for week 12.
RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 12 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for deeper analysis.
Overall, use these metrics for tiebreakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.
DST, K, and QBs
Team Level Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty
Players within their team environment is shown below. These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, usages within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses. Stroll through and get the vibes for the team! I like to roll through and note the averages and green colorizations.
All sections should be in contexts of VEGAS/DAP/UNC levels.