Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings

Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 11 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues. I combined all together rankings which I call my all in one ranking (AIO).  I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty.


Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 11 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labeled.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays from High Shoot-out games. 

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KEY Predicted High Shoot Out Week 11 Games –  6 this week.

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Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics 

The following tables highlight the Week 11 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 9 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).

An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have Easy defenses (Green), Above Average Easy defenses (Light Green), Below Average Tough defenses (light red), and Very Tough Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs Tough).

  • Deeper Positional DAPs can spot flaws in tough defenses.
  • Also extreme weakness in a poor defense.
  • Find the extremes as use for week 11 lineups or DFS adjustments. 

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Interesting Fun Facts for DFS etc.

  • Easiest TB except the toughest in RB DAP? 
  • KC average but so easy to RBs 100 RB DAP?
  • CAR/LAC/BUF Tough except for the RB at 85/88 RB DAP
  • MIN Tough but 93 WR DAP?
  • CHI Tough except for TEs at 58 DAP.
  • CIN easy except 51 WR DAP
  • Extremes are Key

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Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs DAPs Combinational Landscape

The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in a week 11.  Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics?

The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups and DFS plays as well. 

These figures highlight the landscapes for week 11. Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings.

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Vegas with DAP Metrics Intersections

I highlight the hot spots with yellow circles. Use these charts to plan week 11 seasonal lineups and DFS plays. Hunt for these Hot-spots for key DFS moves/Trade/Waivers.

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HIGH Shoot-Out Week 11 Games 

This week is of extremes 6 High vs 5 Low Games. I would then move to the 6 and away from the low. The DFS key may be collecting surprises in the other games. Find surprises!

I do note the CIN vs OAK and DAL vs DET seem to have easy vs easy defenses thus more offense than expected? 

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Above Average Scoring Week 11 Games

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Below Average Scoring Week 11 Games

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Low Scoring Week 11 Games

I note the WAS vs NYJ are a battle of easy defenses and thus more shoot-out than thought. I might focus more on this game for DFS as well.

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Team Player Rankings Averages Week 11

In beginning my weekly rankings I obviously use VEGAs Metrics and DAPs (See Above). Also, I calculate all players I rank in the week and get the average FSP Ranking (Fantasy Sports Professor Rankings). The raw averages and scaled averages give a Team Level nice landscape which is useful I think about generating DFS and seasonal lineups. 

In general, these metric points to the direction of my choices on average. DFS Stacks might be better within positive teams this week. I highlighted the week 11 high average Teams  Bright Green (LAC/NO/KC/CAR/OAK/BUF/LAR/DAL) vs low teams Red stained (MIA/WAS/ARI/CIN). 

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Visual Plot for Week 11 Team Scaled FSP Ranks

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Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
  • Week 9  Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

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Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my rankings would be less accurate! 

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 


Uncertainty Levels for Week 11 Teams 

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Avg, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, %A and %L.  The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 10 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Colorized Teams are more uncertain this week! 

I annotated for week 11 the teams

  • Low in uncertainty ( green colorization)
  • IND/CHI/CLE/OAK/NO/BUF
  • High in uncertainty (red colorization)
  • ARI/NE/SF/PIT.

The table and graph display the week 11 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams with highly ranked players. Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings.

Interesting that my UNC for ARI falls with Vegas’s idea of ARI being the lowest-scoring team this week? ARI has an 11 H/L which is an extreme warning for all to see! If you would gamble then picking ARI player would be going against the flow in tournament play? 

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The Plot of Week 11 Uncertainty Teams

Nice Visual for UNC levels. Focus on these for DFS move to the lower UNC teams if all else is equal! Extremes in ARI/NE/SF/PIT and that implies caution as your plays.

 

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Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

I present my week 10 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (Purple) to Low (Yellow). I combine my PPR/HALF PPR/NonPPR rankings for an all in one (AIO) experience. Metrics that suggest it may be better for fantasy players to see/use a global ranking.

Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view for your analysis.

The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system and thus they have only one UNC level for week 11.

RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 11 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for deeper analysis. 

Overall, use these metrics for tiebreakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.

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DST, K, and QBs

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Running Backs

 

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

 

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Team Level Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

Players within their team environment. These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, usages within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses. Stroll through and get the vibes for the team! I like to roll through and not the averages and green colorizations. 

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Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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