Another CFB DFS night contest is upon us. This time, I may need to be talked off the ledge of repeating an egregious error from earlier this season. I’ll give you a hint. It involves the Cougar and Bear species. And, a stack.
As always, I post my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
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Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the Saturday night DK contest:
|[email protected]OU 8:00PM ET|||||14.5|||||68.5|
|WSU@CAL 7:00PM ET|||||7.5|||||51.5|
|ND@DUKE 7:30PM ET|||||7.5|||||51|
|CLEM@NCST 7:30PM ET|||||34|||||54|
|[email protected]UGA 7:00PM ET|||||17|||||48|
|[email protected]SCAR 7:00PM ET|||||6.5|||||51|
|[email protected]FRES 7:00PM ET|||||5.5|||||58.5|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Jalen Hurts and Anthony Gordon. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky quarterback duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,411.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. Onto to the targets!
Deshaunte Jones | WR | Iowa State $5,700
As the highest projected scoring game on the board, it is advisable to get your LUs as heavily involved as you are able. Jones makes for a relatively cheap date/high floor play, in a spot where Cyclone quarterback Brock Purdy will be relying on his most trusted receiver to move the chains, and keep Hurts and company off the field.
Between that, handing the ball off to Breece Hall 25-30 times, and Purdy making plays with his legs, head coach Matt Campbell knows executing that recipe is the only way to have a chance, in Norman under the lights. So far in Big 12 play, they’ve been pretty damn good at it.
In the four conference games Jones has played in, his lowest catch total is seven. Along with him, Hall has emerged as a true bell-cow, and proven capable being highly productive. Both players have the right role and matchup to return value. The price is what gives Jones the nod over Hall.
Also, I think it’s notable that Jones has not scored a touchdown in a conference game this season. Last year, he had three scores in Big 12 play, in a much reduced role. The point is, a player like him projects to score 5-7 times on the season. By the simple law of averages, it’s only a matter of time before he hits pay dirt again. Like Aaron Judge coming to the plate without a homer in his last 25 at bats, Jones is due.
Cole Kmet | TE | Notre Dame $5,600
On the flip side, all this guy does is score touchdowns. Last week’s score, made it his fourth in the Irish’s last four games, and five overall for the season. All that is great, but I still think a monster double-digit catch game is coming for him, similar to the 9-108-1 line he put up in the opener, at Georgia.
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Since then, Notre Dame had two blowout wins, a blowout loss in a monsoon at Michigan, and just a weird game last week against Va-Tech. Sandwiched in between was a more normal game-flow contest, in a 30-27 win over USC. Kmet’s 6-61 line from that week, is the floor I expect from him game to game. That said, similar to Jones, he comes at a fantastic price for what we already know his upside can be.
Rico Dowdle | RB | South Carolina $5,200
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice….
I’m not a political person. But, it doesn’t matter what side you’re on. Humor has no allegiances. And that, will never not be hysterical. And, I will not be fooled by these Gamecock running backs two weeks in a row.
Tavien Feaster was set up for a huge night against Vandy’s defense last week, then he got hurt. Now, he’s out and Dowdle is back in. It’s pretty much that simple.
I know App State is supposed to be one of the “good” Sunbelt teams, but they did just allow Georgia Southern to rush for over 300 yards. Yes, I am aware that was partially due to the fact that GSU runs a gimmicky triple-option scheme, but earlier this season, UNC running backs were able to average over 4.5 yards per carry against App State, as well.
Bottom line is this. It’s a talented, healthy running back, at home with a good matchup, in a role where he’ll likely see 20 plus touches. Added to that the affordable price he comes with, I won’t be fooled again!
Fading Quarterback Chalk
As much as I am tempted to run back my California Devon Modster stack against a bad Cougar defense, I talked myself out of it. Long story short, this does not look like the board to get cute with the quarterback position. There are serviceable options like Ian Book and Trevor Lawrence that can get you the production needed, but I think Hurts is actually worth every CFB DFS penny for Saturday night.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
Let’s just say that when I’m out to dinner this evening, I’ll be making a Swift order for all the Lamb in the house.