Welp, here we are. It’s another CFB DFS night contest with seven games. If you don’t hit the right one or two, you’re probably setting your sights on what to do for the varsity games on Sunday. However, for this limited board, there should be an abundance of ways to finish above the cash line.
Five of the seven games in the contest have a total projected points scored in the 60s, with three of them looking like they will be relatively low risk in the game flow department. Because of this, I tend to approach these slates with a heavier game target mentality, as opposed to getting player specific. I’ll still go through the usual routine, but be a bit more brief, with my thoughts on what I believe is the best big picture approach for tonight.
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As always, I post my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the Saturday night DK contest:
|[email protected]BAMA 9:00PM ET|||||34.5|||||61|
|[email protected]UT 7:00PM ET|||||21.5|||||62.5|
|[email protected]WSU 7:00PM ET|||||12.5|||||71|
|[email protected]WAKE 7:30PM ET|||||1.5|||||68|
|TA&M@MISS 7:30PM ET|||||6.5|||||56|
|[email protected]USC 9:30PM ET|||||9.5|||||67|
|[email protected]PSU 7:30PM ET|||||9|||||47|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like a Tua Tagovailoa and Anthony Gordon stack. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky quarterback duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,600.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. Alright, short but sweet, here we go!
Markese Stepp | RB | USC $4,300
The Trojans are one of four teams that Vegas has scheduled to approach, or exceed, 5-6 touchdowns. With Vavae Malepeai now out with an injury, backfield duties will be left to Stepp and Stephen Carr.
Last week at Notre Dame, Stepp got his opportunity and impressed with a 10-82-1 rushing line, as USC’s most effective tailback. At 6’0” 235 lb, the redshirt freshman should be licking his chops facing an Arizona “defense” that gives up almost 500 yards per game, ranking as the 11th worst in all of Division I football.
Simply put, the Wildcats have no chance of stopping USC’s offense. Carr may turn out to be the better option statistically, but I’ll take my chances with what I believe to be the more talented player, with higher upside, and the lower price.
From an overall slate perspective, the Trojans are my favorite approach for cashing this slate. Washington State and Wake Forrest have the similar projected floor/upside/low game flow risk that we all desire. But, from a price standpoint, they cannot compete with the bargain bin rates on some key players in the Trojan offense.
Similar to my daytime love for the Devon Modster selection, Kedon Slovis has the dream price/matchup combo on the board at quarterback. He’s already proven he can put up big numbers, with over 30 DK points earlier this season against a bad Stanford team, and even managed a solid 18.1 DK performance against a good Notre Dame defense last week.
At wide receiver, the trio of Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Vaughns, and Amon-Ra St. Brown have hauled in over 70% of the team’s receptions, and caught all but one of the 12 touchdowns thrown by USC quarterbacks this season. For value, Vaughns and St. Brown have the right price. Regardless, all three are relatively interchangeable and capable of high ceilings in this game.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
It should be noted that Alabama stud receiver Devonta Smith is suspended for the first half of their game against Tennessee for being an idiot last week. The good news is that, because he’s played so well over the last month, Alabama’s other stud receiver, Jerry Jeudy is now supremely undervalued for tonight. Look for him to get back to dropping his ridiculous stat lines on the Vol defense, sans Smith.
Other than that, by using Slovis and the Trojans as a foundation, you have the cap space to hammer as many Cougars, Buffaloes, Demon Deacons, or Seminoles your CFB DFS heart desires. I don’t know about you, but I have never been more excited about watching mediocre Pac-12 football in my life.