Does it seem like the NFL season is flying by… or is that just me? We are already in week 6 and there have only been a couple of surprises so far in my book. The Niners are the only undefeated team (for now) alongside the almighty Patriots. The Saints really haven’t missed a beat without Drew Brees. The Falcons are only 1-4… well, that’s not super surprising given their struggles last year. All in all, the league looks as if we thought it would look.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t make betting any easier. In fact, it likely makes it harder. But this guy (Aaron), is hitting 50% of his picks on the season! Last week was my 1st week with only 1 win, while Kyle got his numbers up with his second 2-win week of the year. I did hit my bonus bet (Under on NYG vs. MIN) but that doesn’t count in our stats – I just get to point it out to make myself feel better.
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Week 5 Results:
We know you’re not reading this for a summary of the NFL season to date, so let’s get into this week’s picks! Will Aaron keep up the hot streak? Is Kyle still due for some more positive regression? Take a look at the picks and let us know.
Los Angeles Rams -3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
See what I did in the intro? Little bit of foreshadowing there… the Patriots remain as the only unbeaten team after week 6! Last week, the Niners put a whoopin’ on the Browns on Monday Night Football. They had 15 days to prepare while the Browns were coming off a huge win in Baltimore. It was an easy cover for the Niners and they should have won by a lot more.
The Rams now get the extra time off after playing the Thursday night game against Seattle last week (and barely losing). This team is going to be hungry for a win and they are going to get it no matter what. Worst case: Rams win by 3 and you push. I have a feeling the Rams win this game by double digits. San Fran won’t have either of their tackles this game, and with Aaron Donald destroying the middle of their line, Jimmy Garoppolo is not going to handle the pressure well.
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Pick: Rams -3
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs – Over 55
I wanted to take the Chiefs here, but the line is currently sitting at -4.5 (after opening at -8.5)!! I like the Chiefs to win this game because 1) they are at home, and 2) they lost last week. Great teams rarely lose two games in a row. There’s a great chance that the Texans keep this game close though.
Even with Patrick Mahomes hobbled by that ankle injury, you have to think this game is a shootout. The Texans defense has been better than expected this year, holding some good offenses to manageable point totals, but this is not just a “good offense”. Kansas City’s defense is looking better, but it’s still swiss cheese in my book.
If Tyreek Hill returns this week, as it looks like he will, I expect them to get him the ball early. He breaks a big play, starts the scoring, and it all dominos from there. 60% of the Chiefs games this year have gone over 55, and I picked 2 out of the 3 that hit. I’m putting my money on them again and watching the fireworks.
Pick: Over 55
Seattle Seahawks -1.5 @ Cleveland Browns
I’m finally not taking Miami in this spot….
Yes, this looks and feels like a sucker bet. Yes, I’m now 0-5 on my 3rd pick (9-1 on my first two). But come on man, the Browns just aren’t that good. The Seahawks are still a top-tier team in my opinion. They have had extra time to rest, just like the Rams, and prepare for this battle. The Browns played Monday night so they are coming off a short week.
The Browns have literally showed up every other week to play, going 2-3 in the process. They beat the Jets and the Ravens, with losses to the Titans, Rams, and Niners. They have played a lot of good teams… this has to be wearing them down.
If this game becomes a shootout, I’m taking Russel Wilson over Baker Mayfield any day of the week. Both teams have utilized their ground games a ton this season, but Wilson has been far more effective through the air. He’s completed 73% of his passes (easily his highest ever), with 12 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Sure, regression could be coming, but this is a direct result of running the ball on 55+ percent of your plays. It opens up the field for playmakers like Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Will Dissly (yes, he’s now a playmaker).
Again, looks and feels like a sucker bet, but I’m putting my money on the better team here with extra rest.
Pick: Seahawks -1.5
Dallas Cowboys -7 at New York Jets
I am still very bullish on the Dallas Cowboys this season despite the beatdown we saw a week ago at the hands of the Green Bay Packers. I do have a little concern in this spot as the line has moved from -9 to -7 despite the Cowboys getting 75% of the bets. Getting 55% of the money will help the line trend down.
Getting Sam Darnold back this week is huge! But this team will be without Chris Herndon and CJ Mosley this week despite all expectations they would return. Herndon injured himself while working out during suspension and will be out a few more weeks. Mosley is battling a groin injury.\
To me, this line should be double-digits or close to it. The Cowboys beat down and Jets getting Darnold back has moved the line too much. Give me Dem Boys on the road minus the touchdown.
Pick: Cowboys -7
Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins – Over 41
This week we have arguably the two worst teams in the NFL going head to head. Both defenses have been horrendous thus far this season combing to allow 70 plus points per game. Case Keenum is back under center for Washington this week which should help the offense produce. He had 300 plus yards in 2 of his first 3 games and had multiple touchdowns in all three games.
On the other side of the ball Josh Rosen has been getting better. Preston Williams and DeVante Parker should be able to attack the Washington secondary. I expect the rush attack to make an appearance in this spot as well as Washington is awful against the rush.
Both offenses should score over twenty points this week putting the over very much in play!
Pick: Over 41
Arizona Cardinals ML (+115) vs Atlanta Falcons
Why are the Atlanta Falcons favored over anyone on the road? I get their offense is full of fantasy relevant options but they have been a mess on both sides of the ball. Atlanta is 1-4 straight up and being outscored 102-152. They have lost by 10 or more points 3 times this season.
The Cardinals, while not much better are an improving team and get this game at home. They are likely getting Christian Kirk back which should help Kyler Murray and the passing game. Both David Johnson and Chase Edmonds should perform well in this spot.
Arizona has been good against the spread thus far going 3-2 while the Falcons are an underwhelming 1-4. They also get this game at home which should help their chances of sneaking out a W. Taking Arizona +2.5 is probably the safer option but i’m backing them to win this game on the field.
Pick: Cardinals ML (Money Line)
Make sure to check out Fakepigskin.com each week for a fresh 6-pack of picks and to see how we did the week before!