Now that my MSU Spartans have revealed themselves as true hot garbage, CFB DFS is all I have left to provide purpose for my Saturdays. Good luck to the ABC television crew on selling their third consecutive prime time Small Ten game as anything other than a pillow fight for the right to get fed into the Ohio St. wood chipper, in the weeks to come.
Anyway, as always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
Fake Pigskin Exclusive: Join Monkey Knife Fight and Get an Instant 100% Deposit Match PLUS a Free $5 Game!
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 12 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|OU@UT 12:00PM ET|||||10.5|||||75.5|
|[email protected]WISC 3:30PM ET|||||10.5|||||40.5|
|BAMA@TA&M 3:30PM ET|||||17|||||61|
|[email protected]ASU 3:30PM ET|||||1|||||59.5|
|ISU@WVU 4:00PM ET|||||10|||||53.5|
|[email protected]BAY 4:00PM ET|||||11|||||58|
|[email protected]DUKE 12:30PM ET|||||17|||||49|
|[email protected]CLEM 3:30PM ET|||||27|||||59.5|
|MSST@TENN 12:00PM ET|||||7|||||53|
|[email protected]UGA 12:00PM ET|||||23.5|||||52.5|
|UMD@PUR 12:00PM ET|||||3.5|||||53.5|
|MICH@IL 12:00PM ET|||||23|||||49|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Jalen Hurts and Sam Ehlinger. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,433.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. So, before you build your lineups with every possible Texas/OU configuration, consider these targets as part of your CFB DFS menu Saturday afternoon.
Deon Jackson | RB | Duke $5,400
Last week, it was Gopher tailback Rodney Smith that had the perfect price/favorable matchup combo to warrant massive returns on a modest investment, with a monster 24-211-1 line against the porous Illinois defense. My favorite candidate to fit the profile in Week 7 is this Atlanta native that inspired OutKast’s hit song Ms. Jackson.
Okay That’s not true. But he is from Atlanta. And, so is Georgia Tech. And, so is their God awful run defense that is allowing a preposterous 245 yards on the ground per game this season! I’m not even sure how that’s possible in Division I football.
Since their opening week blowout loss to Alabama, the junior running back has recorded touchdowns in three of four games (five total), and averaged 19 touches per contest. The guaranteed volume should sustain his high floor, with some added upside from what will likely be a run-heavy game script in the second half as three score favorites over the Yellow Jackets.
Johnnie Lang | RB | Iowa State $4,800
This guy could be in a similar situation for Iowa St. as double digit favorites at West Virginia. He emerged from a very murky backfield last week, in a surprise work horse role, notching 16 of 22 carries for ISU running backs. He acquitted himself nicely, averaging over four yards per tote, scored twice, and added a 23 yard catch.
I do not fully trust this situation yet, but my speculation is two fold. One, we’re now entering the portion of the CFB DFS schedule where coaches are more apt to choose a clearer direction of player roles as the competition stiffens. Here, the ISU staff quickly pivoted from a three-headed monster to a bell-cow backfield.
Two, Lang was the guy who got the call, and more importantly, answered it with a rock solid performance. That said, I think they move forward with him in the same role until he proves he can’t fill it.
There is one other mid-level running back that has potential for a huge day, but I’ll save that for the sneaky stacks section. Stay tuned!
David Bell | WR | Purdue $4,700
BREAKING: Mr. Bell returns to the targets for the second straight week at $200 cheaper! Last week, in his first career start, redshirt freshman quarterback Jack Plummer was overwhelmed in their blowout 35-7 loss at Penn State. In fact, he took almost as many sacks (10) as he completed passes (13). Which begs the question: How in the fuck is Maryland laying only 3.5 points to this injury ravaged Boilermaker outfit?!
Because, Vegas said so. That’s why. And, that line has gone down from 4.5 throughout the week.
I’m not sure what’s going on here, but I’ve been a degenerate gambler long enough to understand Vegas knows more about football than Bill Belichick and Nick Saban combined. They’ve set the stage for both teams to approach the upper 20s in a close game. Assuming Rondale Moore sits out again, I am willing this target into existence, assuming that Uncle Vegas has the inside track on Mr. Plummer being born again for Purdue’s homecoming.
Also, for dart throw purposes, keep an eye on Tario Fuller and Richie Worship at running back for Purdue. Both appear to be suiting up for the first time this year.
Back in 2017, Fuller began the season as a productive starter before having his season derailed by injuries. It also appears that Zander Horvath is unlikely to play so the opportunity should be there for both guys. And, I doubt King Doerue’s 2.4 YPC last week earned him any role security.
Speaking of the lotto, is this the week my Tyler Davis play finally works? My guess is it’s now or maybe never for his contest minimum price to payoff.
In their last two games before heading into the bye, the offensive transition from the triple option to a shotgun spread attack finally looked like it was in the completion stages. The 24 pass attempts from new freshman starter James Graham in each of the past two games are more than any Tech quarterback has thrown in a single game over the past two years. And, it is stylistically more in line with what head coach Geoff Collin’s was brought here to do.
Now that the forward pass is alive and well and top receiver Jalen Camp is out for the season, Davis and Adonicas Sanders should safely pass the doughnut hole test week to week. With favorable game script projections for throwing, there’s moderate upside here, as well.
A couple of other guys that continue to prove to have zero proof floors, are R.J. Snead for Baylor and Washington State’s lighting fast freshman Rodrick Fisher. Before being the field stretcher in Mike Leach’s scheme and a 4-star recruit, he was homeless. CFB DFS aside, I’m pulling for this kid.
Someone who has also found a home in many lineups of mine is Ainias Smith for Texas A&M. His increased price and awareness among the community probably disqualifies him from dart throw status, but there’s still value here for the price. Besides, isn’t Alabama only interested in trying to outscore everyone anyway?
Speaking of our beloved CFB DFS elephants, good luck trying stack them and several of the chalky teams Saturday afternoon. With Keaontay Ingram’s injury last week, Texas, Oklahoma, and Alabama all have full blown time shares in their backfields.
As we all know, finding a way to accumulate and double up on all the touchdowns supplied by these offenses will always be a major factor in any CFB DFS slate. I wouldn’t say avoid them altogether, but just be aware of the situation and understand that the predictability as to who will be where, and when they will be there, is non-existent in these running back situations.
The larger impact would be a 2-3 touchdown day from any one of these backfields which would likely turn all the chalky QB/WR combos from these teams completely sideways for this slate. With that, the follow up from last week’s popular segment…
Affordable Reliable Stacks
Let’s get one thing straight. I loathe Michigan football and know Shea Patterson stinks as a real life quarterback. But, this isn’t real life. And, I’m not even sure Illinois is a real football team.
As huge favorites, Jim Harbaugh and Patterson will be doing what they do best by bossing up on weaker opponents, with all kinds of style points to proclaim how they are once again BACK to Michigan football! In all seriousness, I think there is potential for a Patterson/Zach Charbonnet/Nico Collins trio to drastically outperform the low price tag they come with.
Speaking of Charbonnet, with what will undoubtably be whacked out game flow, I would strongly consider running backs Christian Turner and Tru Wilson as low end value plays. They both already have roles in the offense, and Harbaugh has already stated he wants to monitor Charbonnet’s workload so there could be some bye week treatment here on him, if things get out of hand early.
At a slightly pricier toll, the ASU Jayden Daniels/Eno Benjamin/Brandon Aiyuk stack has the more predictable pecking order with the work horse role for Benjamin at running back. They also have less game flow concerns in what projects to be a close game against one of the FBS’s worst defenses, that ranks below the aforementioned Yellow Jackets in total yards allowed per game. #Facts
Before I move on, it’d be irresponsible of me not to mention Clemson prices being a little off in this section. Outside of game flow concerns, they still have the 6-7 offensive touchdown upside that the Sooners and Elephants possess, sans the running back headache.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
As intrigued as I am with this Purdue game, Jack Plummer is getting a little too cute with such a stacked 12 game slate. For reasons already mentioned, I think the price/matchup combo for Patterson, Daniels, and Trevor Lawrence make them the most logical choices to save some cap space at quarterback.
But, that’s not what anybody cares about. The real question for Saturday afternoon is: Do you have the CFB DFS balls to fade the OU/Texas game?
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
The answer is, not entirely. From the wide receiver standpoint, only Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy and Devonta Smith have the floor/upside combos that the Red River Showdown maintains.
However, this will likely be the first game in 2019 where we get the Sooner offense that is this low in the game flow risk department. So, with Jalen Hurts’s production being a necessary wash to compete, it will come down to the edges gained from the Deon Jacksons of the world.
It’s not getting any easier with a 12th game added to the afternoon contest. It really isn’t far from being the Milly Maker NFL contest.
More games means a larger supply of points in the slate. Which, in turn, means true separation won’t come from the obvious stack, or a big day from Hurts.
It’s like the art of CFB DFS is imitating modern day life. All the expanded opportunity and choices are really just leading to indecision, reckless overthinking, and paralyzing anxiety on our youth.
Each individual is only left with this perplexing experience that leads them to what their real honest truth is. And, all I can do as a fellow DFSer is offer my own truth.
For this slate, my approach is to mix in as much Lamb, Rambo, and Duvernay as possible, and avoid trying to stack the chalky team running backs in favor of my targets. That, and hammering Purdue on the moneyline should be enough to make it a profitable Saturday afternoon.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 7 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!