Week 4 Targets and Touches

Week 4 Targets and Touches

This report, Week 4 Targets and Touches uses metrics on Team, Position, and Player targets and rushing attempts. The more opportunity is the higher the chances for collection of your Team’s fantasy points. This information is meant for deeper thinking and note-taking. If you have deeper benches these metrics allow you to jump into new player shares early for gambling. That is how I use deep benches. I continue to rotate players at the bottom.

Lineup Diary

I would use these Team metrics with my rankings and snap reports to finalize the week 3 lineups. This process is not automatic and easy. I am urging all players to dig deep into their decisions. There are plenty of software to automatically set-line ups. I subject using a notebook and record your process. This lineup diary can be useful for you to spot weaknesses or strengths in your game by the week or season.

Rankings Link: fantasy-football-rankings-week-5-all-in-one

Snaps Report Link: week-4-snaps-report



Team Target Averages vs Targeting Rate

I have discussed my top-down approach to data analysis. These bigger views allow a deeper feel for the deeper data. Below is the table of Team Target Averages vs Targeting Rate using the first 4 weeks of target data. Week 4 Targets and Touches


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Targeting Rate is associated with the numbers of targets per player. Thus the metric identifies the Team Level of Pass-Catching Players. 

Few Players Targeted mean more opportunity per player.

  • NYJ/MIA/MIN/KC/NO/OAKs – Blue- High Targeting Rate to Few Players
  • BUF/DAL/HOU/LAR/PHI/JAX/CHI/SF -Red- More Players Spreading the Ball Around. 

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The Weekly Average of Targets is a simple averaging of Team Targets from Weeks 1 to 4. Teams with high target averages are stained in purple vs low target averages in yellow.

High Target Average Teams – LAR/CAR/ATL/NE/NYJ/CIN/PHI

Low Target Average Teams – SF/TEN/MIN/BAL/MIA/TB/IND/DET/CHI

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Looking for Teams with High Targets to Fewer Players.

NYJ/ATL/CIN/NE/NYG/DEN (Buy in to these teams).

Week 4 Targets and Touches

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A Visual Plot of Target Averages vs Rates

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Avg Targets By Teams Weeks 1 to 4 With Variation and DIFFs


AVG Targets

I plotted the AVG Targets by Teams from high to low and stained the teams green vs red.

  • ATL/LAR/ARI/CIN/NYG/KC are highest teams in target averages 
  • HOU/TEN/SF/DAL/OAK/HOU are on the low-end of target averages

Variation Metric

A Variation Metric was also calculated and quantified for each team’s targeting. I am interested in “trust”, which teams can I trust to have their average targets per week. In DFS a key secondary factor for deeper analysis.

High Variation = Less Trust but also on the flip side a shoot-out possibility as well. Extremes are key in Tournament Plays!

LAR/SEA/MIN/GB/CAR/DEN/ARI/NYJ are high variation teams. I used this info for Thursday’s night game.


DIFFs Metrics

The DIFFs metric simply looks are recent increases or declines in targets from the Team’s last 2 played games. High DIFFs positive and negative should be deeply questioned. New Trend of Mirage? Be Awake to shifts in team fortunes!

Increases   – ATL/LAR/GB/MIN/IND/BUF

Decreased  – WAS/LAC/NYJ/ARI/BAL/MIA/SEA/TEN


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Combinational Plot of Team Target Averages and Variation

The intersection of variation and target averages are key for lineups. In seasonal, a strong opponent should move you to more gambles (High Variation High Targets). In DFS tournament lineups as well.

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Positional Level Target Averages, Targeting Rates, WR/RB and WR/TE Ratios

Extremes

These series of figures document a dense level of metrics in one view. These data tables need serious time to consider analysis. I included 4 teams worth of tabular data over weeks 1 to 4 followed by a visual plot of the Team’s positional targets.

You can perceive the team style of passing to each position. Extremes are always interesting and can direct moving to players or away from poorly targeted positions and players.

^^ Note ARI goes to RB and WR while ATL passes to all positions at a close targeting rate!


ARI_ATL_BAL_BUF

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CAR_CHI_CIN_CLE

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DAL_DEN_DET_GB

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HOU_IND_JAX_KC

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LAC_LAR_MIA_MIN

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NE_NO_NYG_NYJ

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OAK_PHI_PIT_SEA

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SF_TB_TEN_WAS

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Metric Ratios: WR vs RB

I use ratios as a yardstick between data streams. It allows a connection depth not available within one group of data. System comparisons give a snap-shot for further analysis. Week 4 Targets and Touches

I use 3 ratios WR vs RBs. WR vs TE and Overall WR Usages derived from the 2 ratios ( a compound ratio). These allow me to peer into each team to “see” their past game scripts in passing! Who gets the passing?


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WR vs RB Ratio

This was calculated below and Teams highest in WR to RB usages (Purple) were at the top vs RB vs WR targeting (Yellow) at the bottoms (extremes).

LAR/NO/SF/TEN/BUF/TB/NYJ are High WR to RB teams. Move to the WRs in PPR!

MIN/GB/CHI/WAS/NE/CLE/LAC/IND are at the low-end and will be using RBs more than WRs.

Note MIN has a very extreme RB targeting ratio of 0.37. They are so extreme they must be using Cook much more than Diggs as their game plan!

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WR/TE RATIO

What Teams are extremes in TE usages? This ratio-based metric addresses that!

NYJ are by far the Team that ignores their TE! 6.27! NE is next at 4.26 followed by MIA/NO/DEN/MIN/LAC. Note that NYJ/NE/LAC may be getting TE help from new players on the scene. Watch for new trends!

BAL loves its TEs at 0.76 followed by OAK/PHI/CIN/CHI/CAR/JAX/CLE/ATL/NYG.

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Estimated WR Targeting Ratio Based

The table below lays out the two ratios and combines them for a compound ratio-based metric. Move to the higher WR usage teams!

NYJ/NE/NO/MIA/LAR/TB/BUF/DEN all use WR heavy

CHI/BAL/PHI/CLE/IND/WAS/NYG/SEA are light on using the WRs

Using these metrics for lineups in seasonal and DFS!

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The Plot of WR Estimated Usages

I expected NYJ and NE may include more TE usages in the rest of the season. Caution NO/MIA/LAR/TB/BUF/DEN/TEN TEs!

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TEAM Level Weekly Targets Weeks 1 to 4, Average Targets, and DIFFs

I love to generate the various levels of Target metrics to “catch” all the data for interest. I use to think about my teams, drop/adds/and lineups. I chase multiple data streams for a full landscape in my thinking.

One might jot down key observations by teams, positions and or players. Then try to fit these elements together. Practice and note in your playing diary (Handicap your own decisions). Please let’s move away from the tire line “They told me to do it”! Own your line-ups!


Team Targeting Data

These tables contain:

  • Weeks 1 to 4 
  • Average Targets
  • Differences in the last 2 games played! 

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Plots of Positions % Team Targets

I calculate the total targets to each position (%TT) and sorted the data from High (blue) to Low (red)


Running Backs

CHI/NYJ/NE/ARI/CAR/WAS/PIT/MIN are highly targeting RB.

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Tight Ends

High TE targeting team by %TT are SF/OAK/BAL/PHI/TEN/ATL/CAR/NYG/KC

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Wide Receivers

The top WR Teams by %TT are DET/LAR/TB/CLE/ARI/GB/BUF/BUF/NE/LAC

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Player Level Weekly Targets, Target Averages, %TT, and DIFFs

These tables give a Team by Team view of the Target Metric Landscape. I use to “see” pecking order, team usage, and recent changes in targeting activity. Looking for extremes and recent changes. I use to spot new player trends for actionable information in lineups in DFS and seasonal leagues.

I cut to the chase by annotating the player increases and declines by green X and red Z respectively. Move toward highly involved improving players and away for the opposite player types. Week 4 Targets and Touches

Each Team needs your scan and note-taking for your thinking.

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Player Level Target Averages, DIFFs, %TT and Improve/Decline Designations

I note the odd players higher and improving as well as the well know players declining and lower than expected.


RBs

White is stronger than thought? Bell declined? Karma declined? ETC

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TEs

ERTZ at the top! Waller Declined as did Walker?

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WRs

Allen and Kupp at top. Allen declined? Waiting for D Jackson! Boyd declined? Crowder a surprise get him before his QB is back. Beasley is a great surprise for PPR!

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Team Level Running Back Average Touches from Weeks 1 to 4, Average PPR Scoring Per Touch, and Scoring Efficiency 

As RBs can rush as well as pass-catching, we must look into the combined role they have on a team. The “touches” metric tracks this RB activity and enables a deeper view of the Team’s RB usages. 

This table presents the Team Level Running Back Average Touches from Weeks 1 to 4, Average PPR Scoring Per Touch, and Scoring Efficiency. Scoring Efficiency is another ratio metric combining Average Touches and PPR Scoring.  A high EFF number is a very sign of RB opportunity. 

These metrics are a landscape view of the leagues and teams. High Touching Teams would have significant RBs in PPR while Low Touching Team would not. Focus on RB committee structure and pecking order in case of injury as these new players should inherit a nice situation.

  • The top teams in RB touches are
  • DAL/CAT/JAX/DEN/NYJ/CLE/TEN/SEA
  • The lower touching teams were
  • MIA/DET/OAK/BAL/NE/WAS/MIN

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Team RB Scoring Efficiency

The key teams with very good RBs in PPR are BAL/NE/DET/WAS. Interesting that all these teams have RB with fewer average Touches. Not as strong trends then!

CLE had the high RB Touches and Scoring EFF followed by CAR as well.

KC/BUF/ATL/LAC/SF/GB also had nice Touches with Solid Scoring EFF.

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Players RBs Touches Weeks 1 to 4, Average Touches and DIFFs

Looking within Teams for RB pecking orders, DIFFs in touches, and Averages in Touches. These give us clarity for the Teams RB crew. Look for new improving players or declining players. Note the extremes and add or drop players accordingly.


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Edwards in BAL has handcuff indicators.


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Hillard in CLE is a possible acquisition.


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Williams in GB interesting. He may have been dropped.


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Hines in IND



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Watch Walton in MIA


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WATCH Hillman NYG


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Samuels in PIT.  Howard improving in PHI. Washington in OAK


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Jones in TB. Mostert in SF.

Week 4 Targets and Touches

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