Week 5 Milly Maker Plays

MILLYMAKER DOOKIE STACKED

Week 5 Milly Maker Plays

The biggest disparity in Vegas lines is The Patriots -900 and the Eagles -750. Both teams are 14 point favorites with the highest implied team totals, each over 28. The MIN/NYG game has been bet down 1.5 points thus far. Davante Adams, Desean Jackson both DNP on Wednesday. Gallup looks like he’ll return for the Cowboys as does LAC Mike Williams.  I like ARI and NE onslaughts with 4 player team stacks.  Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.

QB

Tom Brady, $6500, New England Patriots
2% projected ownership

With a 28.75 implied team total, Brady and the Pats head to Washington to face the Redskins. Brady has scored 23 or more DKpts in each game before last week’s defensive scrimmage in Buffalo. Per Football Outsiders, Brady ranks in the top 4 for QB DVOA, DYAR and Passing Offense this week (32.58% rating.) The Redskins are sacking opposing quarterbacks at a sub 5% clip (bottom 5), while the Patriots are only allowing sacks on a 4.42% rate (3rd best.) So far, the Redskins defense has given up 10 passing TDs to opposing quarterbacks (second only to the Dolphins.) Brady ranks 2nd in pass attempts inside the opponents 10 yard line this season.

Jameis Winston, $6200, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8% projected ownership

We all expected a dud from Winston on the road against a respected Rams D and with Godwin missing multiple days of practice. I guess the lesson here is #defensedoesntmatter and never count out Bruce Arians. Winston’s ownership will surely increase from .5% from last week but I don’t foresee him to be chalk on the road in New Orleans. Per Josh Hornsby’s Premium Usage Evolution app, Winston comes into the week as a top 5 QB in Air Yards (5th with 375.3/avg), aDOT (3rd with 10.95/avg), Pass Yards (5th with 291.8) and Pass TDs (5th with 2.3 avg.) DFSers with a short memory will be scared away from this matchup against a Saints team who just shutdown the Cowboys on a nationally televised game. The Saints give up the 3rd most DKpt/game to the QB position (Pro Football Reference).

Chalk QB:
Lamar Jackson, Prescott

Also Consider:
Rivers, Watson, Murray, Allen

Fade:
Ryan

RB

David Johnson, $7500, Arizona Cardinals

10% projected ownership

I expect him to be higher owned here, but I’m just going by what I’m seeing at LineupHQ. Johnson is in a great spot against a Bengals’ defense that just allowed a massive 16 receptions to PIT RBs.  Johnson is a top 5 running back in snap rate (80% avg), Targets (7 avg), Receptions (5.3 avg) and Rec/yds (45.5 avg.) Per Pro Football Reference no team gives up more DKPts/Game to opposing running backs than the Bengals (39.7 avg.) Fire up DJ with confidence!

Mark Ingram, $6300, Baltimore Ravens

8% projected ownership

Ingram was surprisingly, massive chalk last week. As a game flow dependent back, Ingram was mostly uninvolved as Chubb and the Browns completely controlled the game. However, game flow should work more in the Ravens’ favor this week as they face Mason Rudolph and the Steelers. The Steelers rank 3rd worst in Ru/Att allowed (105.) According to Pro Football Reference, Ingram has played significantly better on the road this season (25/118 at home vs 30/210 on the road.) The Ravens travel north to Pittsburgh this Sunday as favorites.

Chalk RB:
Zeke, CMC

Also Consider:

Jones, Conner, Kamara, Howard, Gallman

Fade:

Cook (NYG 12th best against RB/pass funnel. I’m not completely fading Cook because of his massive workload but I’ll underweight the field. Also a complete smash spot for Cousins if he can just be a competent QB.)

WR

Phillip Dorsett II, $4900, New England Patriots
1% projected ownership

Dorsett seems to be the biggest benefactor from the departure of train wreck, Antonio Brown. For the season, Dorsett leads the Patriots in Air Yards with 336. After only converting 2 out of a team high 9 targets in Week 4, things get easier for Dorsett. Washington’s defense ranks 8th worst in receptions and dead last in receiving TDs allowed to WR.

Nelson Agholor, $4700, Philadelphia Eagles
.1% projected ownership

**This pick is dependent on DeSean Jackson’s availability in this game. **

One of my favorite times to roster high usage players is after a disappointing outing in an island game. Agholor was quiet against GB last week, as Jordan Howard broke out with 3 all purpose TDs. Even with his 1 target last week, Agholor still leads the team in snaps averaging 91%. Agholor trails only Zach Ertz in Air Yards (285), Targets (29), and Receptions/Game (4.5/avg.) The Eagles have the highest implied team total with 29.5 points. The Jets rank bottom 2 in DKPts per game allowed to opposing receivers (47.4/avg.).

Mike Evans, $7100, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10% projected ownership

So, this is an odd numbered week, which means it’s Mike Evans’ turn to shine, right? I think fellow Redditor n7leadfarmer said it best: deciding which TB WR to roster is like working QA for a landmine company… “one of them is going to blow up, you just gotta hope you land on the right one.” According to Pro Football Reference, Evans is a top 10 WR in Re/yds (6th/368), Yds/Reception (5th/20.4), Re/TD (Tied 1st/4) and longest reception (10th/68.) New Orleans has used shadow coverage twice this year with Lattimore covering top wideouts Hopkins and Cooper. Out of 158 coverage snaps, Lattimore ranks bottom 3 in yards allowed in coverage (24/308/2.) After a monster game last week, Godwin is projected to be 21% owned.

Chalk WR:

Michael Thomas

Also Consider:

Diggs, Edelman, Sutton, Anderson (if Darnold goes)

Fade:

AJ Brown

TE

Austin Hooper, $4500, Atlanta Falcons

8% projected ownership

Having cleared 24 DKFpts in back to back games it’s time to go back to the well with Hooper. Over the last 2 weeks, Hooper is top 5 in Air Yards (70avg), Targets (7,11), Receptions (6,9) and Receving yards (196.) Although HOU is 5th best against the position, expect Hooper to continue to be a reliable outlet for Ryan and the Falcons.

Chalk TE:

Eifert (ARI giving up 29.3 DKFPts to TE), Andrews

Also Consider:

Olsen, Fant, Graham

DST

NE, CHI, GB, TB (piling up the sacks), NYJ (have averaged 13 DKFpts/game and coming off a bye).

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!

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