NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 3

Welcome to Week Three of season seven of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! Last week we went 2-1 once again, hitting on our pick of the week (Baltimore) and one of our alternates (New England). Unfortunately, our third pick (Pittsburgh) had a bit of bad luck suffering injuries to both their starting quarterback and starting running back. That being said, while they only lost by two points, in an eliminator league, it doesn’t matter how much you lose by, only that you lost. Hopefully you went with our pick of the week because it’s time to extend our pick of the week streak to three! Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Last week, seven of the 16 games scheduled were division matchups.  Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, New England, Dallas and Kansas City, all won on the road against division foes. Jacksonville lost to Houston, on a failed two-point conversion attempt at the end of regulation. Indy won by a total of two points and two other games were decided by less than one touchdown.  The majority of these games were close, and many continue to be unpredictable.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Tennessee at Jacksonville
  • New York Jets at New England

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Once again, two of the three prime time matchups were close contests between strong teams. On Thursday, we saw Tampa Bay pull a six point upset over division rival, Carolina. On Sunday night, we saw Atlanta edge out Philly in the final seconds. Now, we won’t talk about Monday’s thrashing of the Jets, but two out of three ain’t half bad. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Tennessee at Jacksonville
  • Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland
  • Chicago at Washington

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

For the second week in a row, we saw home teams really struggle. Surprisingly, only five games were won by the home teams with the only real upset being the Chargers losing to Detroit. While west coast teams seem to struggle the most on the road, the reality is, home teams win more than 50% of their games, and it is only a matter of time before the law of averages catches up to us this season.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Tennessee at Jacksonville
  • Carolina at Arizona
  • Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland
  • Chicago at Washington

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Dallas Cowboys over the Miami Dolphins

OK, let’s be honest, this is going to be everyone’s pick of the week. The Cowboys are 2-0, playing at home, hosting a team that is 0-2 and according to many, losing games on purpose. It is a 21.5 point spread and possibly may grow even bigger. If Miami wins this game, then the only good news is your eliminator league is probably not over since my guess is very few avoid this game.

Other options I like this week:

  • New England Patriots over the New York Jets

Since we brought up one game with a 20+ point line, we may as well bring up the other game. Yes, this is a division matchup, but as we mentioned last week, sometimes we have to break our own rules. Add in that New England is the home team here, keep in mind that the Jets are down to their third string QB, and this shouldn’t be very close by the end of the first quarter.

  • Green Bay Packers over the Denver Broncos

Here is a more traditional pick for our series. The traveling team is an 0-2 Broncos team with not a lot of fire power, and they are entering Green Bay, where the 2-0 Packers have already pulled off two tough wins against NFC foes. Despite the Broncos having a good defense, I think Rodgers is going to be ready to run the score up in this one.

Pick of the Week Streak = 2 weeks

Overall Record = 4-2

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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