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All in One Rankings: Week 1

All in One Rankings:

Week 1 with Uncertainty Analysis

Introduction

Welcome to the Week 1 2019 Season using my ALL in ONE (AIO) rankings analysis. I have gathered using meta-data processes PPR, NON-PPR, and Half PPR rankings.  I placed all these rankings into the same numerical scale of 100 to 0 (best to worst). This normalization allows us to build landscape views of Teams, Positions, and Players. All in One Rankings


Uncertainty Levels for Each Player (All from my textbook as well)

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

I think the issue for Fantasy Football is better described as uncertainty. I have previously outlined some steps to mitigate uncertainty. On average the level of uncertainty goes up in as you move into the lower part of the positional weekly ranking, so your process must change as you go deep into those rankings.



FLEX Positions

Flex positions will be where players have to most likely deal with player uncertainty. I suggest you determine what your team needs that week. If your match-up within your league points to you having to maximize your lineup, I might combine a boom-type of player with the least uncertainty. If your match-up suggests you have an advantage then use lower uncertainty, steady players. All in One Rankings


All in One Rankings: Player Positional  and

Uncertainty Analysis

Given the discussion above and your time for this task, I present my All in One Uncertainty Annotations for Players by Positions.

Useful Informatics Tools:

  1. Set Weekly Line-ups
  2. Use as Tie-Breakers,
  3. Trade Analysis,
  4. Wavier Wire Acquisitions


Week 1 Uncertainty Team Level Landscape Table and Graphical Plot.

In my weekly process, I begin top-down and look at each team’s uncertainty level as judged by the player’s rankings for that week. I use these metrics for tie-breakers in hard decisions. I use for DFS as well for stacking players etc.

Below is the table for Week 1 Team Uncertainty sorted from low to high uncertainty for week 1. I colorized the team names from green, yellow, to red  (low, mid, and high uncertainty). All in One Rankings

The data includes:

  • Team

  • High, Mid and Low Uncertainty Player Numbers

  • Total Players ranked this week

  • % H, %M, and %L (Percentage of the team’s players ranked that are High, Mid and Low uncertainty. 

  • %L ratio vs %H and %M (Level of Low Players)

  • Annotation of Team for this Week. 


Slide1

PIT is the extreme team for low uncertainty players (DFS forcing stacks) at 4.0

Next Tier, is NO and LAR at 2.42 and 2.40

Finally, OAK and MIN at 2.29 and 2.24


Slide2

I would avoid non-key players from BUF/DET/HOU/CIN as they are at the bottom of the uncertainty week 1 profile. 


Week 1 Rankings and Uncertainty Levels.

The following are my early week 1 rankings with uncertainty levels. These metrics include:

  • POS (Positions)
  • Players
  • Grand Rankings Average (Grand AVG) – Average of Non-PPR, PPR and Half PPR rankings
  • Half PPR, Non-PPR and PPR Normalized Rankings (Colorized)
  • POS and Players
  • High, Mid, and UNC (Uncertainty colorized Green, Yellow, and Red- the numbers are the 3 league type judgment of the player’s uncertainty level)

Defense and Special Teams (DST) All in One Rankings

Slide4


Kickers (K) All in One Rankings

Slide6


Quarterbacks (QB) All in One Rankings

Slide8


Running Backs (RBs) All in One Rankings

Slide10

Slide11

Slide12


Tight Ends (TE) All in One Rankings

Slide14

Slide15


Wide Receivers (WRs) All in One Rankings

Slide17

Slide18

Slide19

Slide20

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Fun Research in my textbook!

If you liked a metric-driven view of Fantasy Football check out my 2000 page textbook!

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook: 2019 Edition [Print Replica] Kindle Edition
by John Bush (Author), Annalise Bush (Illustrator), David Cherney (Editor)

Click Link Below

Textbook on Kindle


Planning Outline for Drafting and In-Season Work

fantasy-football-planning-2019


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