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No Time to Panic with Colts

No Time to Panic with Colts

Death, taxes and people overreacting to news in Fantasy Football! Those are the three certainties in life. The NFL world was shocked by the news of Andrew Luck retiring from football at age 29. The Fantasy Football world is even more shocked since he was still being drafted within minutes of the news being leaked. But this is no time to overreact if you own other Indianapolis Colts players. The shrewd fantasy owners will be making low-ball trade offers if you do panic.

TY’s Statistics Worse Without Luck

This has been the favorite mantra by those forecasting doom and gloom for the Indianapolis Colts in real NFL games. This also applies to Colts players in fantasy football too. Yes, it is true that in 2017 with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, the statistics for TY Hilton were worse than when he played with Andrew Luck. But what gets lost in the “Truth” is that the Colts are a much different team heading into the 2019 season than they were heading into the 2017 season. Scott Tolzien started that first game in 2017, and he was horrible. This led to Jacoby Brissett being thrown into action long before he was ready. Heading into this season, Brissett has two whole training camps under his belt instead of a few weeks. Despite being thrown into the absolute worst of circumstances, Brissett only threw 7 interceptions and had 13 touchdowns. Were his statistics great? Of course they weren’t. But being thrown to the wolves, he performed better than most expected.

Jacoby Brissett Upside

Any time you look at small sample sizes for players, there is more uncertainty baked into the projections. If you dissect Brissett’s numbers from 2017, you can see that when he was good, the team won. Additionally, his fantasy football contribution was pretty solid as well. When the team did poorly, he did poorly. Remember heading into the 2017 season, the Indianapolis Colts were a 8-8 team the year before. Also, remember last season the Colts finished the season 9-1, after a lousy start under a new coach. In his four wins in 2017, Jacoby Brissett did average 22 fantasy points per game. His ability to scramble for yards also helps his weekly floor value on a weekly basis.

Reaction to Other Players’ Fantasy Points

Last year TY Hilton played most of the season injured, which dropped his effectiveness as compared to his career numbers. Hilton scored 12.4 in games the team won compared to 9.4 in games they lost. Marlon Mack was very game script dependent, averaging 15.4 points in games the Colts won and only 5.7 points in games they lost. It was also Mack’s first season carrying the load on offense. Last year the Colts defense was 10th best in points allowed and 11th best in yards allowed. Back in 2016 the Colts defense was ranked 22nd in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed, so the 2019 team should be much better than the 2017 version of the Colts. And despite the change at quarterback, the Colts still have a decent team heading into this season. I wouldn’t downgrade the potential for other skilled position players in fantasy football too much. Playing hurt last year, Hilton was 14th best in year end points at his position. So a healthy Hilton should be able to hit that same total even with a change at quarterback.

Conclusion

Fantasy Football players always overreact! The smart players are sending out as many low-ball trade offers as possible to TY Hilton and Marlon Mack owners this week. But comparing statistics from a young player from two years ago, and assuming that will be the result this year, it is a recipe for disaster in fantasy football. This isn’t Nathan Peterman taking over at quarterback. This is a guy in Jacoby Brissett who was a third round draft pick and highly regarded when he was backing up Tom Brady. He is also a player who was in line to get lots of free agent offers from quarterback needy teams next year whether he played or not this season. You are not going to get top value in trade for your Colts’ players right now, so don’t panic and see how good Jacoby Brissett will be before making any rash decisions who might regret come week six.

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