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Using Weekly Tools for Drafts

Saints Alvin Kamara

Using Weekly Tools for Drafts

Fantasy Football is a weekly game is a statement you will grow tired of hearing from me over the years to come but it is true. As Fantasy analysts too often we compare a player’s year end statistics to another to show who you should pick at a particular position. But how you accumulate those points is more important. Is your player consistent enough not to hurt you on a bad week? Does your player have upside potential often enough to help you win on a good week? Earlier this week we discussed the concepts of BEST 10 and CONSISTENCY RATING and now it’s time to put them to work in a real draft.

League Rules and Roster Size Most Important

Your individual league’s scoring and roster rules are the most important thing you need to research before you start a draft. This public redraft league example is a typical Point Per Reception (PPR) Standard league with starting lineup of 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 1K, 1DEF with only 7 BENCH slots. Usually in such a league I will take only 1TE, 1K, and 1DEF since the waiver wire will have plenty of options. If league rules allow I won’t even take a kicker or defense in early leagues filling those positions out before week one to give myself an extra wide receiver and running back.

The next most important thing to understand is how your draft position will affect your strategy. After the first few elite running backs I tend to go to the more reliable stud wide receivers instead of the 4th through 10th ranked running backs. For this example I got the 3rd draft slot making a stud running back available in round one.

Weekly Tools Explained

The two unique weekly tools that I have developed over 10 years of Fantasy Football number crunching are the “Best 10 Rating” and the “Consistency Rating.”

Best 10 compares each players best 10 games over the last 2 years with fudge factors to account for inexperienced players or injured players. This number is a good comparison of the ability of a player to have a huge upside on a regular basis.

The Consistency Rating gives a player a score based on the percentage of games played where they hit at or above the target score for players in Fantasy Football. This target score is a level which players hit close to 60% of the time on average representing 15+ points a week for a quarterback, 10+ points per week for a running back or wide receiver and 7+ points for a tight end. The higher the rating the more likely he is to help your team even on a down week.

Rounds 1-3

The running back I targeted here was Alvin Kamara but he was gone with pick number 2 with Saquon Barkley going first. That made my first round pick easy going with Christian McCaffrey due to his 7th best BEST 10 rating and his 100% Consistency rate last season. For me, it was too early to grab the 1st wide receiver and Ezekiel Elliott’s hold out concerned me.

When my second round pick arrived I had the choice between several great wide receivers and choose Keenan Allen over Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, TY Hilton, and Mike Evans because of Allen’s 6th best Consistency Rating and his 6th best Best 10 rating.

I was able to get TY Hilton in the 3rd round giving me two solid starters at the wide receiver position. The only running back I considered with either pick was Nick Chubb based on his Consistency Rating but figured the wide receivers were better values.

Rounds 4-6

Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones were the running backs I had targeted for the 4th round but they were taken before my pick. Julian Edelman the “King of Consistency” was also gone but I gladly took the big upside of Stefon Diggs. Diggs has the 10th best Best 10 and the 11th best Consistency Rating and was a steal in the 4th round.

My draft strategy in the top six rounds never revolves around roster needs and always focuses on the “Best Player Available” in each round. Kerryon Johnson with his amazing 8th best Consistency Rating was my pick over Marlon Mack and Damien Williams in the 5th round.

I took a chance on the rookie David Montgomery with my 6th round pick as my 3rd running back. If DeShaun Watson had fallen to the 6th round he would have been my pick due to his 4th best Consistency and Best 10 ratings.

After the first six rounds I was evenly balanced with 3 running backs and 3 wide receivers who all had Consistency Ratings well above the league average.

Eagles Carson Wentz
Rich Schultz – Getty Images

Rounds 7-10

Roster needs always start kicking in for me starting in the seventh round and I start to actively look for values at quarterback and tight end at that time. Never over draft someone just to satisfy a roster need even this far into the draft but if value exists at those other positions it is time to pounce.

Aaron Rodgers the top rated quarterback in Best 10 and Consistency Rating should have been my pick this round. Instead, I decided to gamble and see if he would fall one more round because Panthers WR D.J. Moore was still available. Moore’s Consistency Rating was 17% over league average as a rookie and that was too much to resist.

Rodgers and Andrew Luck my other quarterback targeted for the next round were gone so I grabbed more wide receiver upside with Dante Pettis. His Consistency Rating of 71% was too tough to pass on. Darrell Henderson was still on the board in the 9th so I added another rookie running back and Carson Wentz the 3rd ranked quarterback in Consistency rounded out my 10th round.

Rounds 11-16

Upside is the name of the game in the double digit rounds of any Fantasy Football draft but a few Best 10 or Consistency Rating sleepers can also be found. It is also very important to work on your roster make up at this point so you are not scrambling at the end of the draft for scraps.

Getting Curtis Samuel in the 11th round was another gift because now I have both young wide receivers from the Panthers and can play the hot hand if needed during bye weeks and due to injuries.

In the 12th Eric Ebron was too good to pass up. Many analysts are fading him due to the return of Jack Doyle but even before Ebron came to the Colts he was a Consistency Rating all star.

D’Onta Foreman if healthy has a shot at the starting running back slot in Houston so he was a bargain in the 13th round. Last year before his injury Mitchell Trubisky scored a Best 10 Rating that was 4th best in the league and he was my backup quarterback play in the 14th round.

To finish out, I took the Ravens defense my pick in the 15th to fill that slot in my lineup before all the top defenses were gone. As usual my final pick in the draft would be the best kicker available which turned out to be Mike Badgley with the Chargers.

Conclusion

Instead of using year end statistics for your Fantasy Football draft list this year try adding a couple of weekly statistical tools. Knowing your player’s upside potential and consistency rate not only helps when building your roster but also when you have to make tough lineup decisions during the season.

Once your top 2-4 running back and wide receiver slot are filled don’t be afraid to take chances on upside potential. If you are wrong the more ordinary players are always available on the waiver wire in small roster redraft leagues.

Final Roster

QB- Carson Wentz and Mitchell Trubisky

RB- Christian McCaffrey, Kerryon Johnson, David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson, D’Onta Foreman

WR-Keenan Allen, TY Hilton, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Dante Pettis

TE- Eric Ebron

Analysis

My team would have been stronger at quarterback but weaker at running back if I had selected DeShaun Watson in the 5th round instead of Kerryon Johnson. Missed out on Aaron Rodgers later which could come back to haunt me but feel good about the explosive potential of both offenses led by the quarterbacks on my roster.

Eric Ebron is a risk at tight end but should still be a good red zone threat on a strong offense. I have depth to deal at wide receiver and if more than one of my upside running backs hit I will have trade worthy players there too if I need help at quarterback or tight end.

Keep in mind this was a public league drafting against average to below average Fantasy Football players. You will NOT get this many players with so much consistency and upside in drafts against better opponents.

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