There are plenty of players we all get very excited about heading into fantasy drafts, sometimes they hit and sometimes not so much.
For Fantasy Football 2019, Brian Twining and I each have three names you should avoid at their ADP. This article is more about cost to draft them, situation, and potential upside than about the player themselves, unless its my first name to avoid because he sucks.
All ADP Data is 1/2 point scoring courtesy Fantasy Pros
Derrick Henry | RB | Tennessee Titans
ADP: 31 RB: 16
Are we really doing this again? The Derrick Henry hype train seemingly gets rolling down the tracks throughout the off-season. The Titans are saying the right things in terms of expected workload load for this season. Combine this with the way Henry finished last season, 625 yards and 8 TDs in the month of December and you can start to build the narrative for 2019.
Heading into last season the hype was very similar and then the season started. The volume seemed to be there when Henry had 18 carries in Week 2 and Week 3 even though the production was not. It was Week 3 when the inconsistent workload started. Henry saw 12 or less carries for 9 straight weeks. He was not a fantasy viable option outside of the weeks he found the end zone.
For 2019 I would not be touching Henry at his current ADP. The Titans offense has flaws and will not be a team that continually finds itself in the red zone. Lack of goal line carries in an anemic offense doesn’t set up a fantasy star especially if the workload is inconsistent spells trouble. Henry would need to be in the 1,000 plus yards and double-digit TD range to warrant the draft day cost. I’ll pass and let someone else sign up for that.
Leonard Fournette | RB | Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 29 RB: 15
For me avoiding Leonard Fournette has nothing to do with the talent. He is an incredibly skilled runner who moves very impressively for his size.
It is much more about the injury concerns. He has played 13 and 8 games through his first two NFL season. The lower body injuries that plagued his junior season at LSU have carried over into his NFL career. These injuries are soft tissue injuries that tend to linger and are typically easier to re-injure.
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Fournette is also in an underwhelming offense. Many expect them to be better with Nick Foles under center but that’s easier said than done. Doug Pederson did a ton to scheme for what Foles does well. There is no proof that the Jaguars can do the same thing.
Hunter Henry | TE | Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: 61 TE: 6
The Hunter Henry hype is baffling to me. Not because I question his ability but this is a player coming off an ACL injury that forced him to miss the entire 2018 season. Before the injury Henry has been a useful player for fantasy but far from a star.
More importantly there are players going after Henry who I’d much rather have including Eric Ebron. While it is completely reasonable to assume the TDs come back to reality a bit from his 13 a season ago but 700 plus yards and 7-8 TDs feels like a safe prediction with so much more upside in this offense. Injury concerns may be there for some owners but this is a player who has played 16 games in back to back season despite seeing more work.
Beyond Ebron, Vance McDonald is a better option for fantasy. With Antonio Brown gone, McDonald should see plenty of work this season. He should take a step forward on his 50 catches for 610 yards and 4 TDs in 2018.
I’m even taking Jared Cook over Henry in drafts. Drew Brees has shown the willingness to utilize the TE with his time in New Orleans. Obviously Cook won’t be the top option like he was in Oakland post Amari Cooper but he should still be plenty involved. I’ll wait a round or more and be very happy.
Amari Cooper | WR | Dallas Cowboys
ADP: 34 WR: 12
Amari was cast off by many fantasy owners over the first third of the season last year after performing like a Mini Cooper.
His fate changed after being dealt to Dallas prior to the trade deadline. Amari instantly became the explosive force we saw during his first two years wearing the silver and black. His impact was fully felt during Thanksgiving when he sped past Washington defenders for a soon to be bested 180 yards and 2 touchdowns receiving. Just two weeks later we saw Cooper annihilate another division foe, the Philadelphia Eagles during a 10 catch 217 yard and 3 touchdown performance.
These two games were outliers however in an otherwise pedestrian 9 games for the Boys. During the 2nd half with the Cowboys, Cooper caught six touchdowns. Five were in the two previously mentioned contests. Subtract those two dynamic games and his averages were less than stellar at 4 receptions for 47 yards per game making him a bench player in every format.
He will still see the majority of targets from Dak, but with Zeke in the backfield and an offense determined to chew clock, his boom or bust output is too risky at his current ADP when A.J. Green, Stephon Diggs, Ty Hill, and breakout favorite Chris Godwin are all being drafted after him at the WR position.
Jordan Howard | RB | Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 80 RB: 32
The Pig has a new farm from which he’ll be fed, but this pen is overcrowded. Last year Howard rumbled to 9 touchdowns on the ground as the unquestioned and unchallenged early down/short yardage back in Chicago. Now in Philadelphia, rookie Miles Sanders, second year man Josh Adams, and recently re-signed Darren “Little Tank” Sproles, are all competing for touches with Howard.
Although much is to be determined during preseason, one thing is certain, Doug Pederson will rotate everyone in the backfield with little to no consistency in usage.
Currently being drafted before Rashaad Penny, Latavius Murray, and the previously mentioned fellow Eagle Miles Sanders, Howard carries much more risk than reward, and should be avoided at his current ADP.
Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 23 QB: 1
*in 1QB leagues
Patrick Mahomes was a sleeper to put up fringe QB1/2 numbers and mostly went late in 2QB or superflex drafts, and undrafted in single qb leagues (like one of mine), prior to 2018. He proved early how valuable he would be and went on to be one of the greatest fantasy football steals of all-time!
Patrick Mahomes was irrefutably the best fantasy QB, and it wasn’t even close. Becoming only the third person ever to reach 50 passing TDs helped him outscore the next closest quarterback by almost 100 points. This was the largest margin for any position making him the most valuable player in all of fantasy. Conversely the difference between 2nd (Matt Ryan) and 12th (Dak Prescott) was also almost 100.
With his playmakers returning as well as new additions, I fully expect another amazing statistical season just not at the level of last year. In Fantasy Football 2019 draft season Mahomes is being drafted in the late 2nd or early 3rd round and close to a full two rounds earlier than Andrew Luck.
Those drafting him at his current ADP are banking on him outscoring the next best QB again, but not just beating them out, but beating them by a large margin. This kind of repeated dominance at the quarterback position in fantasy just doesn’t happen. I’m only going back to 2006, but since that season, no qb has finished no.1 in consecutive years.
I’m not saying Mahomes will come crashing down, quite the opposite actually; but the likelihood of him producing so much more than the next QB is almost zero. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady by example, both saw a significant decrease in TDs coming off their respective 50+ seasons. Manning went from 55 to 39, and Brady dropped from 50 to 0(IR) to 28 in his first full season post historic year.
The regression is coming for the Texas Tech gun slinger, as are the other elite fantasy qbs for the crown. Andrew Luck was 1 td away from 40, Deshaun Watson is healthy with multiple weapons, and Aaron Rodgers still plays football and they’re all being drafted 2-2 ½ rounds after Mahomes.
A full two round premium for a very unlikely repeat is just too expensive and risky at his current price. In all single quarterback leagues Patrick Mahomes is a DO NOT DRAFT, MUST AVOID! If you’re playing superflex however, draft his backside 1st round baby!