Dynasty Startup Power Rankings Part 2
By Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fantasy1)
Fun Research in my textbook!
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook: June 2019 Edition [Print Replica] Kindle Edition
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Dynasty Start-Up Rankings
Dynasty startups are in my opinion the toughest to draft into. Given the view of this year combined with a look forward can confound a drafter. As I have discussed concerning reference class forecasting in previous Team Flash Cards, I like to “see” the potential draft selections by positions.
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My approach to my data is fewer words and more visuals. Do you want me to hand-feed you what you can see? No! Use to inspire deeper thinking. Chop the wood then get the fire! Do not be like those who would want the fire then maybe you will chop some wood! They keep you dependent!
Player Level Dynasty Performance Factor Rankings – PFs
These figures present my Dynasty PF rankings. I divided the metrics into 3 columns of Uncertainty Levels (High, Average, Low) as well as overall positional league level PF.
Uncertainty Levels for Each Player (All from my textbook FYI)
The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:
- In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
- Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
- Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
- You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
Conclusion: Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them. Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience. However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
*https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty
I think the issue for Fantasy Football is better described as uncertainty. I have previously outlined some steps to mitigate uncertainty. On average the level of uncertainty goes up in a draft, so your process must change as you go into the draft. Knowing the positional patterns helps as well as team usages of positions and the pecking order within the team.
*Uncertainty Insurance can be done by considering the max/min of each pick (floor to ceiling).
Usually, you hear you should draft for the high ceiling but what is the floor. Also, you can be told draft for a high floor but what is the maximum?
* Insure yourself from uncertainty by considering decision trees associated with your information.
Mock Drafts or Best Balls can work these decision trees out for you.
* Insure yourself from uncertainty by considering the Hurwicz Criterion **
** Hurwicz Criterion: The maximax and the maximin criteria of a draft pick, assumes that the fantasy player is either optimistic or pessimistic.
A more realistic approach would, however, to consider the degree or index of optimism or pessimism of the decision-maker in the process of decision-making which players to draft
For each player considered determine your degree of player success as well as the Ceiling and Floor for that player.
If a, a constant lying between 0 and 1, denotes the degree of your draft pick optimism, then the degree of pessimism will be 1 – a.
Then a weighted average of the maximum and minimum payoffs of action, with a and 1 – a as respective weights, is computed. The action with the highest average is regarded as optimal.
I suggest using an estimate of PPR production. If you think a player will get 160 FP as your optimum, then decide the worst case say 90 FP. Do that for all major choices.
We note that a nearer to unity indicates that the decision-maker is optimistic while a value nearer to zero indicates that he is pessimistic. If a = 0.5, the decision maker is said to be neutralist.
Assume that the index of optimism a = 0.7. or a 70% chance you predict of hitting 160 FP for player 1 then you are saying he has a 30% chance of 90 FP.
Example Matrix of Decision
The Best Player 1 160 90 = 160*.7 plus 90*0.3 = 139
Other Player 2 150 100 = 150 *.75 plus 100*0.25 = 137.5
Other Player 3 175 80 = 175*0.6 plus 80 *0.4 = 137
Since the average for Player 1 is maximum, it is optimal.
Nice selections for your analysis. It clear which QBs have more uncertainty or less within the top 10 QBs.
Given the current ADP patterns, the early RBs are being drafted and they also have low uncertainty levels. Montgomery CHI is the first suggested rookie RB to draft in dynasty, but his uncertainty has to be considered High!
The top TEs for dynasty have nice low uncertainty levels but only 3 are above 80 PF levels. The Top 8 TEs are fairly “safe” thus, I have been drafting in that range. I have taken Goedert/Reed/Rudolph as gambles but mainly as TE2 types.
The interesting aspect for Dynasty is the uncertainty level extends into the future so it is not a “got to get it now” viewpoint. That is factored into my PFs and uncertainty levels.
Team Level Player PFs
The preceding metrics focused on the league level positional PFs while these PFs are within the Team. Remember in Dynasty the future is included so Kirk >>> Fitzgerald. Etc.
I use the outside in approach in my thinking.
- Who is around my player?
- Is there a committee?
- Is the QB’s future uncertain?
- Where is the talent on the team?