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Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

      (Redraft/Dynasty June 16, 2019, Edition.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

Key Players

Slide1

  • Current Positional ADP Rankings,
  • 2019 Expected PPR FP Seasonal
  • 2018 END of Season PPR FP,
  • and Expected Change from 2018 to 2019

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Quarterbacks and Running Backs

TB QB– In 2018 the TB QBs were used at 4.2% higher levels than 2017. That is a nice increase. 2018 was the best year for TB QB in the last 6 years. Winston is the guy! He is currently at QB13 and is not expected to improve or decline. He is a steady late QB pick as per the Public ADPs. 

TB RB – In 2018 the TB RBs were not close to top form and were used at nearly -7% less than in 2017. 2018 was the 4th worst RB year in the last 6 and worst in the last 4 years.

They did not grab a high RB rookie as the thinking is Jones steps up from his poor freshman year? Jones is at 38th RB by ADP and the public expects a nice 2019 +130% increase in FP.

However, the issue for him beside the uncertainty is Barber is still around. Barber is at the 49th RB and the public does expect a movement of FP to Jones by a -34%. I am not sure Jones gets the 3rd year with TB if he does not top Barber.

Barber could be the late RB play with the failure of Jones. Players are going to be watching preseason etc for clarity. Expecting movement in ADPs. 

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

TB TE – The TB TEs were underused given the talent by -1.8% in 2018 vs 2017. 2018 was the 3rd best TB TE season in the last 6 years. The public is forgiving as Howard is currently 4th TE by ADP.

He only played 10 games in 2018. I calculated the 16 games 2018 Season based on his FP/Game. Using that the public is a nice +17% gain for him in 2019. 

TB WR –  In 2019, the WRs from TB were many, some showed up others did not. I note that in 2018 they were used at a +4.4% team usages. That goes along with Winston coming on. 2018 was TB WRs best season in the last 6 years. They produced 828 PPR FP! That implies TB can support at least 2 to 3 WRs for nice production in 2019.

Evans is 8th WR and is predicted to be nearly the same at +3%. The mover is Godwin currently at WR 2nd and is expected to improve by 17%. Note they accounted for 500 of the 828 FP in 2018. It seems that a current TB 3rd WR type can be getting 180 ish FP? Or does the RBs and TEs go up. Gamble on a TB WR3.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Slide49 TB

 

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