PGA DFS RBC Canadian Open Preview

If you need PGA DFS to preoccupy yourself while the NBA drags the finals out to the end of the summer, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the RBC Canadian Open (CO) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Hamilton Golf & Country Club  Ancaster, Ontario  Par 70  Yardage 7,000

The new PGA Tour schedule effective this season has moved the CO from a late July event each year, to what will now be the annual precursor to golf’s third major championship of the season, the US Open. This year specifically, the CO returns to Hamilton CC where is hasn’t played host since 2012.

Just so we have some reference for how long ago that was, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane. During that year, The Artist beat out an underwhelming group of movies, including The Help and Moneyball, for the Best Picture Oscar.

Canada’s own, Carly Rae Jepsen’s “Call Me Maybe” finished the year as the number two song on the Top 100 Billboard charts. LeBron James was winning his first NBA title with the Miami Heat. And, Eli Manning slayed the mighty Patriots for his second Super Bowl win over TB12 in as many tries. I was just graduating from college, and still had hair.

Yep. 2012 was a loooooooooong time ago. Needless to say, course history and past statistical data is going to be tough to weigh when breaking down this year’s CO, from a fantasy or gambling perspective. But, that certainly isn’t going to stop degenerates like yours truly. Here are the past seven CO winners and their scores:

Year	Course	Player	To Par
2018	Glen Abbey	Dustin Johnson	-23
2017	Glen Abbey	Jhonattan Vegas	-21
2016	Glen Abbey	Jhonattan Vegas	-12
2015	Glen Abbey	Jason Day	-17
2014	Royal Montreal	Tim Clark	-17
2013	Glen Abbey	Brandt Snedeker	-16
2012	Hamilton	Scott Piercy	-17

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Strokes Gained: Ball striking (SG: BS)
2. Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green (SG: T-G)

When there is unfamiliarity and a lack of past performance to draw from, ball striking is my favorite stat to fall back on. It combines a player’s total driving rank (accuracy and distance) with their greens in regulation ranking.

Think of it like the OPS metric for baseball, and quarterback rating for football. Or, perhaps the gigawatt for time travel. The point is that it’s a solid reference point for any player’s performance from the tee box to the green.

A similar metric that will reflect tee-to-green play, relative to other players is the strokes gained metric. With putting being almost every player’s make or break stat week to week, and insufficient historical data, these are the most comprehensive stats to indicate where a player is at with their game. You could make an argument that they should be considered every week, regardless of event history, and/or course setup.

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	Composite Rank	BS	SG: T-G
Brooks Koepka	11700	6	2	10
Matt Kuchar	10500	9.5	4	15
Rory McIlroy	11200	9.5	18	1
Justin Thomas	10000	11	17	5
Corey Conners	7500	11.5	7	16
Keegan Bradley	8500	13	8	18
Bubba Watson	8900	21	28	14
Dustin Johnson	11900	23.5	43	4
D.J. Trahan	6700	26.5	13	40
Scott Piercy	9300	31	10	52
Aaron Wise	7800	31	15	47
Jim Furyk	8800	34.5	44	25
Henrik Stenson	9100	36.5	49	24
Sungjae Im	7900	37	39	35
Webb Simpson	9700	39	58	20
Hank Lebioda	6700	39.5	35	44
Ryan Palmer	8200	49.5	37	62
Alex Prugh	6700	55.5	10	101
Matt Every	7400	60	52	68
Sergio Garcia	9500	61	111	11
Nick Watney	7500	63	47	79
Russell Henley	7500	64	55	73
Talor Gooch	7100	66	75	57
Dylan Frittelli	7300	66.5	84	49
Joaquin Niemann	7700	67	93	41
Kramer Hickok	7400	69	52	86
Bud Cauley	8400	69.5	105	34
Jason Dufner	8700	71.5	74	69
Carlos Ortiz	6300	72	31	113
Trey Mullinax	7300	72.5	84	61
Kevin Tway	7700	72.5	87	58
Harold Varner III	7100	74	72	76
Cameron Davis	6900	74.5	68	81
Sebastián Muñoz	7200	77	80	74
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	7400	78	69	87
Nate Lashley	6700	82	69	95
J.J. Spaun	7000	82	57	107
Sepp Straka	6800	83.5	45	122
J.B. Holmes	7600	85	95	75
Adam Hadwin	8300	85	55	115
Adam Schenk	6800	87	66	108
Josh Teater	7000	89	82	96
Daniel Berger	8000	97.5	89	106
Ryan Armour	7200	98	91	105
Danny Willett	7400	101	115	87
Brice Garnett	6600	101	51	151
Fabián Gómez	6500	101	62	140
Adam Svensson	6500	102.5	146	59
Lucas Bjerregaard	8000	103	69	137
Alex Noren	7700	104.5	75	134
Tyler Duncan	6800	107	58	156
Zach Johnson	7600	109	173	45
Shawn Stefani	7300	109.5	95	124
Roberto Castro	6900	110	127	93
Jim Knous	6800	110	101	119
Harris English	7300	110	64	156
Roger Sloan	6800	114.5	102	127
Chase Wright	6200	114.5	61	168
Scott Stallings	7200	115.5	159	72
Cameron Tringale	7100	116	111	121
Johnson Wagner	6800	116.5	67	166
Wes Roach	6100	117.5	77	158
Martin Laird	7200	118.5	95	142
Bronson Burgoon	6500	119	89	149
Danny Lee	7300	120	130	110
Brandon Harkins	7000	120.5	124	117
Scott Brown	6700	122	128	116
Jonas Blixt	7800	124	144	104
Brandt Snedeker	9000	124.5	179	70
Hudson Swafford	6500	125.5	125	126
Austin Cook	8100	126	106	146
Jimmy Walker	7900	127	164	90
Seth Reeves	6000	127	63	191
Anders Albertson	6000	127.5	135	120
Denny McCarthy	7300	127.5	117	138
Ben Silverman	6900	133.5	113	154
Jim Herman	6100	140	110	170
Nick Taylor	7100	143	163	123
J.J. Henry	6300	146.5	140	153
David Hearn	7000	147	117	177
Graeme McDowell	7600	149.5	138	161
Wyndham Clark	7000	150	133	167
Tom Hoge	6600	153.5	174	133
Roberto Díaz	6800	153.5	142	165
Bill Haas	7100	153.5	196	111
Brian Harman	7600	154	169	139
Peter Uihlein	7400	154.5	140	169
Dominic Bozzelli	6300	155	117	193
John Chin	6000	155.5	107	204
Sam Saunders	6600	157	171	143
Peter Malnati	7100	158.5	199	118
Julián Etulain	6400	159.5	191	128
Mackenzie Hughes	7500	160.5	185	136
Sangmoon Bae	6600	162	142	182
Brian Gay	7200	162.5	154	171
Brady Schnell	6700	163	152	174
Richy Werenski	6600	165	170	160
Ollie Schniederjans	7000	167	161	173
Robert Streb	6700	168	181	155
Stephan Jaeger	7000	169.5	189	150
Kyle Jones	6100	175.5	162	189
Alex Cejka	6600	178	193	163
Chris Thompson	6000	180	174	186
Jonathan Byrd	6600	184.5	191	178
Rod Pampling	6100	186.5	198	175
Kelly Kraft	6500	187	194	180
Whee Kim	6300	189	178	200
Chris Stroud	6900	189	199	179
Ben Crane	6600	189	180	198
Scott Langley	6400	189	183	195
Joey Garber	6400	189	176	202
Seamus Power	7200	189.5	195	184
Martin Trainer	6100	190.5	185	196
José de Jesús Rodríguez	6400	192	197	187
Curtis Luck	6700	203.5	202	205
Cody Gribble	6500	204	205	203
Shane Lowry	8600	0	0	0
Erik Van Rooyen	7800	0	0	0
Luke Donald	7100	0	0	0
Padraig Harrington	6900	0	0	0
Nicholas Lindheim	6900	0	0	0
Zack Sucher	6900	0	0	0
David Lingmerth	6900	0	0	0
Chad Campbell	6800	0	0	0
Brandon Hagy	6500	0	0	0
Ricky Barnes	6500	0	0	0
Austin Connelly	6400	0	0	0
Richard T. Lee	6400	0	0	0
Albin Choi	6400	0	0	0
Collin Morikawa	6400	0	0	0
Mike Weir	6300	0	0	0
Drew Nesbitt	6300	0	0	0
Michael Gligic	6300	0	0	0
Chad Collins	6300	0	0	0
Ryan Yip	6200	0	0	0
Tom Lovelady	6200	0	0	0
Matthew Anderson	6200	0	0	0
Will Claxton	6200	0	0	0
Tyrone Van Aswegen	6200	0	0	0
Jake Knapp	6200	0	0	0
Chris Crisologo	6200	0	0	0
Joseph Deraney	6200	0	0	0
Marc-Etienne Bussieres	6100	0	0	0
Zachary Bauchou	6100	0	0	0
Paul Barjon	6100	0	0	0
Derek Fathauer	6100	0	0	0
Josh Whalen	6000	0	0	0
Colt Knost	6000	0	0	0
Richard Jung	6000	0	0	0
Michael Blair	6000	0	0	0
Martin Piller	6000	0	0	0
Joey Savoie	6000	0	0	0

*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–9 players)

I had Matt Kuchar all over the place in DFS last week, and paid dearly as he missed his first cut of the season. That brings me to a great PGA DFS lesson: don’t get mad when you miss, tee it up again!

It really isn’t much deeper than the simple law of averages with missed cuts. Even the most consistent guys are typically going to miss a handful every year. The more important factor to weigh, is whether or not it’s the start of a rough patch from a streaky player, i.e. Hideki Matsuyama. Or, just a blip on the radar of what is a very productive season.

In the case of Kuchar, it’s the latter. He’s missed just four cuts in each of the last two seasons. His average finish in his next event has been just above 20, with three of those finishes coming inside the top-10. Shit, you’d have to go back to July of 2011 for the last time Koooooooch actually missed two consecutive cuts!

The point is: cuts happen. Don’t be too angry and/or afraid to run back your misses. Besides, we all want to see if his caddie tipping policy remains consistent outside the USA.

Going on the lower side, Henrik Stenson’s game is great fit for a shorter track like this. He needs to rack up some more top 10s to factor into the FedEx standings. This thin field is a prime opportunity to do just that.

Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–52 players)

The DK pricing gods continue to disrespect Canada native, Corey Conners. He wasn’t great at last week’s Memorial, finishing T-65, but quietly made it his fifth check cashed in six starts since his breakthrough win at the Valero Texas Open in April. I expect he’ll be fired up to compete for his homeland’s National Championship.

Finally getting the DK respect is old man Jim Furyk. At this point, the more shrewd GPP players are likely not sleeping on either him or Conners. For pivot purposes, Sungjae Im and Aaron Wise have a great combination of key stats and price.

Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–about 91 players)

There is a lot to unpack from this range. With the CO’s “Open” format, players from all the different developmental tours (Web.com, Latin America, Mackenzie, etc..) can earn their way into this field to get a taste of playing with the big boys.

With that type of dynamic, it’s important to identify guys who are more likely to thrive under those circumstances than turtle. That said, I give you Exhibit A: Drew Nesbitt….

https://twitter.com/PGATOUR/status/1101621963980713984

As you can see, comfort and self-confidence was not an issue for the Toronto native, in his first PGA start back in March, where he made the cut. The southpaw is also coming off his first professional win on the Latin American Tour.

Another young, ultra talented native is Chris Crisologo. He made some headlines at last year’s CO with a 353 yard drive in his first ever appearance in a PGA event as an amateur. He’ll be back as a professional this year, trying to improve on his T-45 finish from 2018.

Someone else who makes for a very interesting dart throw is Zach Sucher. He bounced between the PGA and minor league tours over the past few seasons before taking all of last year off to deal with some injuries.

Now back and pain-free, he’s starting to find his game. Two of his last three Web.com starts were inside the top-5, including a T-2 in last week’s REX Hospital Open. In May, after not appearing on the PGA Tour in nearly two years, he made the cut in both of his starts, including a T-35 at the Byron Nelson, his second best career finish in 35 PGA Tour starts.

A couple of other guys who should be eager to tee it up are Paul Barjon and Michael Gligic. The Frenchman Barjon, won last week’s Mackenzie event.

Gligic is in the midst of a true breakout campaign on the Web.com Tour, and is well on his way to earning his PGA card for next season. He will also be a hometown hero, as he was raised about 15 minutes down the road from Hamilton.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Matt Kuchar–See above.
• Keegan Bradley–Stands out from a statistical perspective in my table above. Not a guy who makes a habit of missing back to back weekends.
• Rory Mcilroy–Side note: I used my Rory pick in a season long pool for last week’s Memorial. Seemed reasonable considering he was notching top-10s at an 80% clip, without a missed cut all season, and has an immaculate history at Muirfield. Golf makes no sense. Yes, I’m still angry.
• Justin Thomas–For whatever reason, Muirfield victimized a ton of big names including Tony Finau for his first MC of the season.
• Aaron Wise–Had made five straight weekends before last week’s MC.
• Matt Every–Playing his most high-level, consistent golf in years.

Best Course History Plays

Not much going on here since they haven’t played at Hamilton in so long. For what it’s worth, Furyk, Kuchar, and Dustin Johnson all have the best track records in this event over the years. Also, super random: Ricky Barnes has made seven cuts in eight career CO appearances, including five straight, with three finishes inside the top-20.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Furyk
2. Kuchar
3. Conners
4. Stenson

Good luck in Canada! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast! New episode coming next week for the US Open.