by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fantasy1)
San Francisco Forty Niners – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
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** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB16 Jimmy Garoppolo
- RB29 Tevin Coleman
- RB36 Jerick McKinnon
- TE3 George Kittle
- WR36 Dante Pettis
- WR47 Marquise Goodwin
- WR Round 2 Pick 36 Deebo Samuel South Carolina (2019 factor)
WR Round 3 Pick 67 Jalen Hurd Baylor (depth play only 4th WR)
TE Round 6 Pick 176 Kaden Smith Stanford (deep play dynasty)
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
SF QB– In 2018, JG was injured and the SF QBs were used at +0.7% more than 2017. In fact, 2018 was the second best QB FP season in the last 6 years. If JG can get back he has a nice opportunity to do well in 2019 with 307 FP. He is still a deep QB pick at QB16
SF RB – In 2018, the SF RB were used more than 2017 by +0.9%. They delivered the second best year in the last 6 years for SF RBs. SF went out and got Coleman this year from ATL.
Deeper RB Analysis
He is at RB 29 because of the highly likely RBBC with McKinnon at RB 36. The public is predicting Coleman to generate 202 PPR FP. Coleman was at 193 in 2018, The public is not moving him up or down in 2019. McKinnon would be at 130 PPR FP (180 PPR FP from 2017 as he was hurt in 2018).
Therefore, they are expected to produce 332 FP vs 395 in 2018. The other SF RBs then would be thought to bring home the other 70 FP PPR. There is some room for McKinnon to get more but a gamble for sure (His ceiling is at RB 22 ish).
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
SF TE – Kittle was the show for SF in 2018, He and other TEs were used at a nice +3.2% and they returned an FP profit of 286 PPR FP which, was the best in the last 6 years for SF TE. Kittle got 256 PPR FP in 2018 and the public agrees at his value of TE3 for 2019. Thus, there is little improvement expected.
SF WR – In 2018, the WRs were underused as Kittle was the passing show. They were used by a -4.8%. That figure is quite a drop from 2017 but they were still the 3rd best WR crew in the last 6 years for SF.
They currently are two main WRs, WR36 Dante Pettis and WR47 Marquise Goodwin. The public is thinking they produce 163 and 138 PPR FP respectively. (Total of 301 leaving about 150 WR FP left.) The “hot’ rookie 10th rookie WR by rookie ADP might be in line for a nice share at about WR 44 ish. Therefore, the possibility of a 3 way WR grouping is not so good for Fantasy players as not main WR is predicted. Caution.