DFS PGA Championship Preview

If you need PGA DFS to help you kill the time leading up to the GOT finale, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the PGA Championship (PGAC) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Bethpage (Black Course)  Farmingdale, NY  Par 70  Yardage 7,459

We will never know if the PGA’s decision to move up their major championship into May was to align the first two majors with the GOT premiere and finale, but we can all agree it’s improved the quality of life for all of humanity. After the GAME 7/DANY IS A HEADCASE Sunday, we get major golf paired with the end of a cultural influencing show that makes Sur Gregor Clegane seem small.

But before the sun goes down this Sunday, and we say goodbye to some of our best television friends from the last decade, the Wanamaker Trophy will be hoisted in Long Island at Bethpage (BP) State Park. The same venue played host to the U.S. Open is 2002 and 2009, so some veterans will have familiarity with the course. However, modifications  since then and the inevitable “majoring” up of 2019’s version would not have me putting much weight into anyone’s past performance here.

What we do know is that, just like Theon Greyjoy’s seasons four through eight, BP will play long and hard. Here is a hole-by-hole layout, with average yardages on each type:

Hole	Par	Yards
1	4	430
2	4	389
3	3	230
4	5	517
5	4	478
6	4	408
7	4	524
8	3	210
9	4	460
10	4	502
11	4	435
12	4	515
13	5	608
14	3	161
15	4	484
16	4	490
17	3	207
18	4	411
Par 4s	12	461
Par 3s	4	202
Par 5s	2	563

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Strokes-gained: Tee to green (SG:T-G)
2. Driving Distance (DD)

Bombers will no doubt be at an advantage this week. However, more than just power, the combination of precision and patience will be the key to teeing off late Sunday.

Not only is the course long, but it’s littered with trouble off the fairways. Bunkers and heavy tricked out rough will not allow players, even bombers, to spray drives all over the place, and score with short wedge play.

That’s why SG:T-G is the best metric to target this week. Guys who take BP’s medicine, and scramble errant tee shots with pars in mind, are going to be better off in the 101st PGA Championship.

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, averaging each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	SG: T-G	DD	Composite Rank
Rory McIlroy	10900	1	3	2
Byeong Hun An	7100	5	13	9
Hideki Matsuyama	8500	3	17	10
Gary Woodland	7700	12	9	10.5
Patrick Cantlay	8200	10	15	12.5
Luke List	6800	21	4	12.5
Bubba Watson	8000	24	7	15.5
Dustin Johnson	11100	7	26	16.5
Jon Rahm	9500	13	23	18
Jhonattan Vegas	7100	21	20	20.5
Justin Thomas	10100	2	42	22
Justin Rose	9900	20	24	22
Jason Kokrak	7600	17	32	24.5
Xander Schauffele	9100	19	33	26
Sergio Garcia	7900	14	38	26
Tommy Fleetwood	9200	4	51	27.5
Tiger Woods	11300	8	54	31
Tony Finau	8800	56	6	31
Brooks Koepka	10400	50	14	32
Keith Mitchell	7300	25	40	32.5
Jason Day	9000	31	35	33
Bryson DeChambeau	8900	28	44	36
Paul Casey	8300	9	66	37.5
Rickie Fowler	9300	45	31	38
Phil Mickelson	8000	54	25	39.5
Keegan Bradley	7200	15	64	39.5
Matt Wallace	6700	42	37	39.5
Kevin Tway	6800	62	22	42
Adam Scott	8100	40	45	42.5
Charles Howell III	7000	37	51	44
Aaron Wise	7100	68	29	48.5
Emiliano Grillo	7100	30	67	48.5
Corey Conners	6800	6	93	49.5
Harold Varner III	6300	59	41	50
J.B. Holmes	6600	69	34	51.5
Lucas Glover	7300	16	88	52
Louis Oosthuizen	7800	52	59	55.5
Sungjae Im	7400	23	91	57
Cameron Champ	6900	124	1	62.5
Marc Leishman	7800	48	78	63
Haotong Li	7500	100	26	63
Abraham Ancer	6600	58	73	65.5
Matt Kuchar	8700	11	124	67.5
Dylan Frittelli	6300	46	90	68
Tyrrell Hatton	7400	78	61	69.5
Max Homa	6900	96	46	71
Troy Merritt	6200	57	87	72
Ian Poulter	7600	35	110	72.5
Branden Grace	7400	87	62	74.5
Russell Knox	6700	33	118	75.5
Henrik Stenson	7900	34	120	77
Danny Lee	6300	106	48	77
Ryan Palmer	7200	82	73	77.5
Cameron Smith	7500	73	83	78
Patrick Reed	8400	91	71	81
Si Woo Kim	7200	61	101	81
Chesson Hadley	6500	93	71	82
Jimmy Walker	6500	112	57	84.5
Rafa Cabrera Bello	7300	43	135	89
Sam Ryder	6100	89	91	90
Joel Dahmen	7300	67	115	91
Sam Burns	6800	161	21	91
Webb Simpson	7600	18	168	93
Matthew Fitzpatrick	7100	27	159	93
Charley Hoffman	7100	79	108	93.5
Lucas Bjerregaard	7000	181	12	96.5
Martin Trainer	6400	166	29	97.5
Daniel Berger	6900	122	78	100
Kevin Na	6900	83	118	100.5
Alex Noren	7200	159	49	104
Zach Johnson	7200	39	173	106
Scott Piercy	6500	64	154	109
Adam Long	6200	109	109	109
Chez Reavie	6600	55	168	111.5
Francesco Molinari	9700	94	134	114
Kevin Kisner	7700	66	163	114.5
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	6500	162	67	114.5
Danny Willett	6700	98	133	115.5
Adam Hadwin	6500	119	115	117
Jason Dufner	6700	77	159	118
Jim Furyk	7000	26	211	118.5
Martin Kaymer	6900	113	125	119
Michael Thompson	6500	71	175	123
Brandt Snedeker	7500	86	162	124
J.J. Spaun	6400	115	135	125
Davis Love III	6200	104	148	126
Beau Hossler	6600	188	73	130.5
Jordan Spieth	8600	180	84	132
Kyle Stanley	6800	140	131	135.5
Patton Kizzire	6200	172	100	136
Billy Horschel	7400	134	143	138.5
Justin Harding	7000	212	77	144.5
C.T. Pan	6700	120	178	149
Stewart Cink	6600	185	117	151
Graeme McDowell	7000	137	173	155
Eddie Pepperell	6900	138	176	157
Ryan Armour	6100	110	204	157
Pat Perez	7000	139	179	159
Charl Schwartzel	6900	204	120	162
Brian Harman	6700	145	179	162
Andrew Putnam	6800	157	198	177.5
Brian Gay	6300	175	212	193.5
Satoshi Kodaira	6100	201	193	197
Michael Kim	6100	209	209	209
Jason Caron	6400	0	0	0
Steve Stricker	6400	0	0	0
John Daly	6300	0	0	0
Rod Perry	6300	0	0	0
Shugo Imahira	6300	0	0	0
Vijay Singh	6300	0	0	0
John O'Leary	6200	0	0	0
Cory Schneider	6200	0	0	0
Craig Hocknull	6200	0	0	0
Padraig Harrington	6200	0	0	0
Brendan Jones	6200	0	0	0
Rich Beem	6100	0	0	0
Daniel Balin	6100	0	0	0
Y.E. Yang	6100	0	0	0
Rob Labritz	6100	0	0	0
Ben Cook	6100	0	0	0
Rich Berberian	6100	0	0	0
Marty Jertson	6000	0	0	0
Justin Bertsch	6000	0	0	0
Ryan Vermeer	6000	0	0	0
Stuart Deane	6000	0	0	0
Andrew Filbert	6000	0	0	0
Tyler Hall	6000	0	0	0
Shaun Micheel	6000	0	0	0
Craig Bowden	6000	0	0	0
Brian Mackey	6000	0	0	0
Casey Russell	6000	0	0	0
Alex Beach	6000	0	0	0
Jeff Schmid	6000	0	0	0

*players without data have not played enough measured rounds in PGA Tour events

There is a separate table for foreign players, with rankings coming from their performance on the European Tour website. They do not have strokes-gained data for tee-to-green so the SG total is the metric used in the table.

Name	Salary	SG: Total	DD	Composite Rank
Julian Suri	6400	8	23	15.5
Thomas Pieters	7000	24	28	26
Ryan Fox	6600	55	14	34.5
Jorge Campillo	6900	11	66	38.5
Kurt Kitayama	6400	67	17	42
Ross Fisher	6500	52	37	44.5
Erik Van Rooyen	6700	43	59	51
Richard Sterne	6600	19	87	53
Shane Lowry	7200	3	128	65.5
David Lipsky	6500	22	114	68
Mike Lorenzo-Vera	6600	30	108	69
Tom Lewis	6700	48	92	70
Lee Westwood	6800	18	151	84.5
Lucas Herbert	6400	94	93	93.5
Mikko Korhonen	6200	31	159	95
Joost Luiten	6800	14	180	97
Jazz Janewattananond	6400	25	175	100
Brandon Stone	6300	185	32	108.5
Thorbjorn Olesen	7300	90	143	116.5
Adrian Otaegui	6400	68	167	117.5
Alexander Bjork	6500	49	215	132
Shaun Norris	6100	190	76	133

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–11 players)

Who doesn’t love themselves some Eldrick this week? Winning two in a row is probably a stretch, but I’m certainly convinced he’ll contend based on his last three major performances.

I would not be opposed to anyone in this range. However, from a pure price standpoint, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood are my favorites.

Rose, out of no where, missed a cut at the Masters last month. He has not missed back to back cuts in major championships since 2010. I do not expect him to buck that trend this week.

I’ve been slurping Fleetwood since last season and see no reason to stop now. As his ranking suggests, he is one of the best tee-to-green players on tour. I think he rebounds after a so so T-36 outing at the Masters.

Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–45 players)

With a loaded field, pricing becomes extremely soft on DK. Filling out lineups with as many players in this range will be my general approach this week.

Patrick Cantlay is my number one target based on his price/floor/upside combination. He’s been quietly ascending as one of the game’s top players the last 18 months.

Similar to Fleetwood, his all around tee-to-green play is the reason for his success. He is coming off his best career major performance with a T-9 at Augusta.

Other favorites in this range are Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott, Byeong Hun An, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–about ~99 players)

This range is where all the GPP difference in the world can be made if you’re willing to take some chances. And, DK pricing may not be catching up with some European tour players that do not regularly play in PGA events.

Julian Suri has been climbing the world ranks over the past year, and has the requisite power to succeed at a course like Bethpage. Last year’s PGA Champsionship was his third major appearance, and his career best performance, finishing T-19.

Other notable Europeans to not sleep on are Ryan Fox and Thomas Pieters. They would normally be in or near the chalky range in European Tour contests, and both have solid track records of making cuts in majors.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

Sergio Garcia has been scuffling lately in majors, with an MC at the Masters, after missing all four cuts last season.

His key stats are rock solid, and he’s coming off his best finish this season, with a T-4 at the Wells Fargo Championship (WFC) a couple of weeks ago so it might be the right time to invest low on Garcia. Kyle Stanley is also someone who, after struggling early this season, is trending in the right direction.

Before notching his first season top-10 at the WFC, he had his career best major finish, with a T-21 at the Masters. His stats this season don’t bear out, but he has had very strong tee-to-green metrics the last two years on tour. Along with Garcia, he is my favorite buy low candidate this week.

Best Course History Plays

Not much history so no one. And, I do not really care about anyone’s performance here from 2002 or 2009, good or bad.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Kuchar
2. Cantlay
3. Fleetwood
4. Matsuyama

Good luck at Bethpage! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast!