by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fantasy1)
Seattle Seahawks– Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB7 Russell Wilson
- RB20 Chris Carson
- RB35 Rashaad Penny
- No TE in Top 21 TE ADPs
- WR25 Tyler Lockett
- WR41 D.K. Metcalf
- WR49 Doug Baldwin
- 64 D.K. Metcalf WR
- 120 Gary Jennings Jr. WR
- 204 Travis Homer RB
- 236 John Ursua WR
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
SEA QB– Wilson in 2018 was used at the team’s 2017 levels. He generated the top FP in the last 6 year (tied with 2017). He is ultra consistent and at QB7. Therefore players should consider him a safe QB pick after the top few are gone. He did get a new WR rookie who could really turn it on later in the season.
SEA RB – The 2018 RBs was the highlights of the team in usage improvements by +3.6%. Nice year. They produced the top FP in the last 6 years. This year Carson and Penny seem to be the RBBC. The public has Carson at 20th RB and Penny at 35th RB. The public is predicting a stout improvement from Penny. Hard to see him above Carson but he has room to improve.
The 2018 levels of 20 to 35th RBs are 180 to 140 PPR FP. Carson was at 205 in 2018 so again the public counts on Penny taking those 25 FPs and more. Penny must go from 70 to the 140 FP to justify his 2019 ADP,
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
SEA TE – In 2018, TEs were not used well and dropped by -3.0% in usage from 2017. They produced the worst FP season in the last 6 years. No SEA is currently ranked in the top 21st TE by ADPs. Not expecting much!
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SEA WR – The vibes are strong with the SEA rookie Metcalf just as Baldwin maybe moving out by injuries. This is unclear now. In 2018 the SEA WRs were used by a -0.7% less usage and their FP was the 3rd best in the last 6 years. They maintained their FP production. Currently, Lockett is at WR25, Metcalf at WR41 and Baldwin at WR49. Thus, the public suggests Locket gets 185 FP, Metcalf 154, and Baldwin earns 144.
Last year the 2018 WRs received 558 FP with Locket earning 220 and Baldwin at 140. Lockett is predicted to drop by 45 FP while Baldwin is steady. Metcalf comes in and takes Lockett’s 45 plus 110 more which leaves 75 FP on the table. If Lockett can get his 2018 FP he should be WR 16th and therefore he is a bargain. Metacalf is the gamble in here.