by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
New England Patriots – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB14 Tom Brady
- RB16 Sony Michel
- RB26 James White
- RB53 Rex Burkhead
- TE15 Austin Seferian-Jenkins
- WR16 Julian Edelman
- WR65 Josh Gordon
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
NE QB– In 2018, NE QB stayed nearly the same in team usages. Note the FP from 2018 were the worst in the last 4 years. Interestingly, Brady is currently at QB14 and this is due to lack of perceived NE passing game.
NE RB – The RBs from NE were used by +2.6% increase in 2018. They collectively generated the second best year in the last 6 years in terms of FP. NE uses their run game well. Thus, the public knows this and actually ranks 3 of their RBs. Michel, White, and Burkhead at 2019 ADP 16, 26, and 53. The tandem is Michel (rushing) and White (passing) with Burkhead relief and short-yardage. In fact, though, the problem is the points are shared in this RBBC. Caution in over-drafting these in 2019.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
NE TE – Gronk is gone and at the right time. In 2018, the TEs were used a whopping -7.3% less than in 2017. A poor year for TEs. They produced 148 points a 57% drop from 2017! Now they have gotten ASJ and he is currently TE 15. He may be at the low-end of his ADP now. I will look elsewhere if he gets into the TE10-12 ranked. He is a great best ball TE2 now! I think he is higher than thought because of NE’s TE history!
NE WR – In 2019 NE WRs were used at a +4.4% level. That is due somewhat to the TE poor play. They produced the best in PPR FP in the last 6 years (Shorter passes). Therefore, Edleman is predicted to the WR1 and is expected to bring home lots of points at 2019 ADP of WR16. He may move up in the rankings as the summer comes in. Gordon is he plays would be a best ball WR at best. In other words, he will be hard to predicted when his 7 great games come. What for other moves in NE WR ranks (yesterday haha). Patriots Sign WR Demaryius Thomas. He is currently not in the top 69 WRs. This changes and I would rank him higher than Gordon. WR4 type. He will certainly be an injury handcuff as well.
New England Patriots