by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
Los Angeles Rams– Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
Fake Pigskin Exclusive: Join Monkey Knife Fight and Get an Instant 100% Deposit Match PLUS a Free $5 Game!
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB12 Jared Goff
- RB6 Todd Gurley
- RB55 Malcolm Brown
- no TE > 21TE ADP
- WR17 Brandin Cooks
- WR19 Cooper Kupp
- WR20 Robert Woods
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
LAR QB– Goff had a solid year and was used by the Team +2.9% more than 2017. His FP of 372 was by far the best for LAR QB in the last 6 years. He produced 30% more than the 2017 season FP! Goff is QB12 in 2019 ADP.
LAR RB – Gurley has been a question mark since CJ Anderson’s show late last year. He has some injury issues. However, CJA was signed by DET so the conventional wisdom is everything is ok? Note he was RB1 in 2018 and is at RB6 this year. Hard to gauge. If he does well in preseason expect it to cost you more. This may be the floor for his 2019 ADP! M. Brown is strictly a handcuff at RB55 unless he improves in pass catching. Watch for RBs added later in the rookie draft. LAR RBs were used only +0.4% more in 2018 but was that because of Gurley? LAR with CJA and Gurley generated the best FP 485 by 10% over the last 6 years.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
LAR TE – TEs were used less by -5.1% in 2018 and that was the 4th best in the last 6 years. LAR seems to be focused away from TEs. No LAR TEs are ranked in the top 21 TE ADPs so far. Watch for rookie TEs to be added.
LAR WR – In 2018, the 1st WR produced 21.8 FP/G, 12th 17.3, 18th 16.2, and 24th WR at 13.8. Consider this as a reference for the LAR WRs. The 3 LARs WRs are sitting at 2019 ADP of WR17th (Cooks), 19th (Kupp), and 20th (Woods). The public suspects they will generate 17 to 15 FP/G ish.
In 2018 Woods at the end of the season was 16.6 FP/G (17th WR), Cooks at 16.2 FP/G (18th WR), and Kupp at 16.9 (15th WR). The public is “saying” Cooks is going to be at 16.6, Kupp at 16.2 and Woods drops to 15.8 FP/G. First, all three hurt each other value as all are WR2s. Any injury early in 2019 season moves the other up to WR1 status. Why is Woods dropping?
Is 20th WR a little value in here? Woods could be the “cheap” choice of the three. Note that the LAR clearly loves its WRs and all three will collect FP. They increased by 1.8% in 2018. Their total of 751 FP was better by a whopping 22% than 2017 and was the highest in the last 6 years.