by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
Kansas City Chiefs – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
Fantasy just got a whole lot better thanks to Monkey Knife Fight. With fast-paced games like Rapid Fire and Either/Or, it’s never been easier to play fantasy and win. New to MKF? Get Exclusive $100 Deposit Match + Free $5 Game
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB1 Pat Mahomes
- RB13 Damien Williams
- RB40 Carlos Hyde
- TE1 Travis Kelce
- WR7 Tyreek Hill
- WR 34 Sammy Watkins
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
KC QB– Mahomes is QB1 in current ADP. He set the bar high in 2018 for all QBs. Team usages for QB moved up by +2.8% in 2018. He also generated PPR FP of 482. That was the tops by far in KC for QB in the last 6 years. They next highest was 2016 with 310 PPR FP which was at 64% of the 2018 metric. Mahomes is a clearly superior option (he added 36% production for QBs in KC) for 2019 but the late QB concept suggests he is too high in ADP.
KC RB – RB13 Damien Williams and RB40 Carlos Hyde are current KC RBs. Williams is at an RB1 ish rank and Hyde is at RB4 type. Hyde is a good 2019 handcuff/best ball target. A concern for me is the down in team usages of -6.4% (large drop!) as Mahomes is passing more than usual for KC. That hurts William’s ceiling for 2019. He might be too high and Hyde too low. Be thoughtful in 2019. They were still generating a second-best year in 2018 within the last 6 years.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
KC TE – Klece is currently TE1 in ADPs. He has had a solid campaign there at KC. He was generating the best TE PPR FP numbers by 13% over the second best TE year of KC 2016 season. Seems to be a conservative selection but others could be just as good for lesser draft capital. TEs in KC dropped only by -0.1% in 2018 (Steady).
KC WR – WR7 Tyreek Hill and WR 34 Sammy Watkins are the current KC key WRs. They are a nice WR1 and WR3 selection. Can Watkins collect enough vs Hill and Kelce in 2019? Seems to be maybe higher in cost vs his PPR FP returns assuming no injury. Handcuff got Hill and Best Ball target as main threats. The KC WRs increased in team usage (Mahomes driven) by +3.6%. Also they killed it in 2018 at FP PPR production with 700 FP vs 489 FP as the second best in the last 6 years. That is a 21% increase! Can Hill go higher? This maybe the plateau! In 2019 we want WRs costing us less for more production. I do not think Hill has much room for improvement. Solid choice though!
Kansas City Chiefs