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Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Kyle’s reaction: I feel like I got my groove back. Week 15 was a 3-0 week. The Colts and Vikings covered with ease. The Steelers lined our pockets not only covering but they got the outright win (sprinkle, sprinkle baby!)

This week I have a total of 5 games that peak my interest. I’m targeting the spread for two teams but getting loose with my third pick.

Let’s find some winners and help recoup some of that holiday spending.

Aaron’s reaction: And I’m back to .500! Like Kyle, I feel like I got my early season groove back last week. I went against principles for a while after starting out the year so hot… but that’s not how you continue to win in this world.

My top pick of the week, the Seahawks, were upset on the road by the up & down Niners. The Bengals won the who cares bowl with ease and the Titans really stuck it to the G-men. I had a lot of confidence in all 3 picks and the Seahawks is still a shocker to me. Regardless, we’re looking to keep it rolling this week!

Week 15 results:

Aaron: 2-1-0

Kyle: 3-0-0

On the season:

Aaron : 22-22-1

Kyle : 22-21-2

Kyle’s Picks:
Detroit Lions +6 vs Minnesota Vikings

I love this spot for the terrible, terrible Lions. The Vikings have been overvalued all season based upon what they did last year. They were home last week for a get right game against Miami Dolphins. The public will elevate them back up thinking their offense is “fixed”.

The Vikings are still flirting with the playoffs and face the Bears in Week 17. That game will be critical if they want to play in the postseason. This feels like a spot where Minnesota looks ahead to that match-up next week.

To make me feel even better, the Lions are garnering 58% of the money despite only getting 37% of the bets. Back the home team plus the points and cash your ticket. I also don’t hate a sprinkle sprinkle of the moneyline.

Pick: Detroit +6

Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 vs Houston Texans

This line is mind-boggling. The Houston Texans, winners of 10 of their last 11, are underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles who have struggled this season and are rolling with Nick Foles are QB.

This would make any sane person say, take the Texans getting points. Well, that is exactly what Vegas wants you to think. Let’s get loco and take the Eagles -1.5. If you want to take the ML (-130) to feel a bit better you can go that route.

Foles looked solid last week at the Rams and should prove to be good once again this week. This Texans team is not nearly as good as their record indicates. They probably should have lost a week ago and definitely not covered.

Pick: Philadelphia -1.5

Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Buffalo – 6.5 point Tease

If you know me or have been reading this column all season, you know how much I love underdogs. This week, there are 3 teams that feel like they are getting too many points. The Buffalo Bills are getting 13.5 at New England, Tampa Bay is getting 7, and the Cardinals are getting 14.5.

The Bills have played solid defense all season, have a functional offense and are facing a worse Pats team than previous years. The Cowboys play much better at home and should perform well against Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers can score and should make it interesting. Arizona is a trainwreck but their defense isn’t awful and are facing a struggling Rams team that may limit Todd Gurley.

While I feel like it’s probably too many points, I’m going to give myself a little more wiggle room and tease all three line by 6.5. So, the Bills are now +20, Tampa Bay is 13.5 and the Cardinals are getting 3 full TDs.

This tease pays out +135 (winning $135 on $100 bet). It feels like tremendous value on 3 teams who should stay around their current number.

Pick: 6.5 tease (Bills, Bucs, Cardinals)

Aaron’s Picks:

(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)


Chicago Bears -4 @ San Francisco 49ers

And I’m right back to the road favorites after talking myself down from that ledge last week. The Niners are coming off an emotional win against the division-rival Seahawks and the Bears are starting to regain their midseason form with Trubisky getting healthier each week.

Kyle mentioned the risk of looking to next week above and it could surely apply here as well, however I think Nagy is going to make sure his team does everything they can to win their final 2 games, giving them a ton of confidence going into the playoffs.

I don’t think this game is close – the Bears shut down Breida and force Mullins to go to the air, which will surely cause a couple of turnovers with potential for defensive touchdowns.

Pick: Bears -4

Miami Dolphins -4 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

In this week’s version of the who-gives-a-bleep bowl, I’m again going with the better overall home team. Last week, it was the Bengals that easily handled the Raiders at home. The Dolphins have been very strong recently, despite their 7-7 overall record.

The Jags surprised the Colts a couple of weeks ago shutting them out, but they still only scored 6 points. This offense is anemic and the defense has given up now that they beat up on their division rival Colts.

Ballage and Drake are now running for their 2019 roles and I expect both of them to shoot out of cannons this week. Ballage looked great last week and if there’s anything still decent about Jacksonville’s defense it’s their pass coverage. Miami should pound the ball on the ground and control this game. I think they win by at least a TD as the Jags continue to fight for a (another) top draft pick.

Pick: Dolphins -4

Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 @ New Orleans Saints

This one is #3 because I realize how risky/stupid this is. The Saints are easily one of the best 3 teams in football this year along with the Rams and Chiefs. Put Brees & Co. at home and they become even better. However, the Saints haven’t looked as dominate as they did the entire middle stretch of the season. Both sides of the ball were playing out of their minds and they destroyed teams. For the last 3 weeks, they have only looked like a really good team.

We’ve all seen what Ben can do in a projected shootout game and I have faith that if the Saints get up early, Ben will get the ball to Brown and Juju to put some points on the board. Would love to see this line at 7, but I think it’s still a lot to give an offense like the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers +6.5

 

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