Week 16 Milly Maker Plays

Week 16 Milly Maker Plays

This Sunday, we’re looking at 5 teams that are at least 7 point favorites and 10 teams with an implied total over 24. I’m interested in playing a very small pool of RBs and maybe playing a small number of DSTs. I’m fading Gurley if he’s active. He did not look right last week cutting out of bounds. Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.

QB
Baker Mayfield 5% owned
Mayfield gets a fantastic home matchup against the Bengals, on Sunday. The Browns have a healthy implied team total at 27. He’s only $6100, so he facilitates the “stud RB” lineups that seem to frequent the top Milly Maker lineups each week. Baker is top 10 in DVOA, Airyards/attempt, Dist/attempt and Deep Completion%. According to PFF’s OL/DL matchup, the Browns have a top 5 advantage along the trenches for passing. His game log isn’t impressive lately but I expect him to turn up for the Browns home finale.

Drew Brees 7.5% owned
Brees and the Saints have been a bit of a disappointment over the past 3 weeks. Historically, Brees has been much better at home (higher TD rate, passing %, etc.) Now we have the Saints coming back home to the Superdome, having played 3 straight road games (2 against division rivals TB and CAR) and are projected to score 29.25 points (slate best.) Brees leads the slate in Football Outsiders DYAR and DVOA. I will likely be overweight on the field at this low ownership/high ceiling.

Also Consider:
Luck, Trubisky, Dak, Rodgers, Brady, Watson

RB
Duke Johnson .5% owned
Since firing Hue Jackson, the Browns have had a new energy about them. Baker has been commanding the offense and the play-calling has been re-invigorated. Another facet to this coaching change has been gameplanning. That sounds so ridiculous, but it’s true. Freddie Kitchens seems to have a better understanding on which situations suit the teams offensive weapons. Johnson has been playing around 30% of RB snaps and has twice reached 20% target marketshare in recent weeks. Johnson leads the slate with a 28% DVOA advantage for pass catching RBs in this matchup. Nick Chubb is projected to be 25% owned.

Christian McCaffrey 15% owned
There is a lot of FUD being spread about the Panthers this week. With the team out of playoff contention, they’ve wisely decided to let Newton rest and get his shoulder healthy. The uncertainty of backup QB, Taylor Heinicke, taking the reigns seems to have put a damper on CMC’s ownership and expected fantasy output. As an ODU alumni, I was in attendance to witness him throw for over 700 yards in a game (humble brag.) This isn’t the FBS but what I want to make clear is that Henicke is mobile enough and can get the ball to his main playmaker. To be frank, Carolina could bring back Derek Anderson and I’d still be on McCaffrey in this amazing spot against the Falcons run funnel defense.

Gut Call:
Alfred Blue, Mixon, Fournette, Samuels

Chalk RB:
Zeke (LOCK), Mack, Barkley

WR
T.Y. Hilton 10% owned
Anytime we can get Hilton bordering single digit ownership in the dome, we have to consider him. While the path of least resistance for the Colts will surely be by using the rushing attack, Hilton will go overlooked. A recent routine for Hilton has been sitting out most of the week and getting in a limited practice on Friday before being ready to go on Sunday. I’m expecting more of the same this Sunday. As far as the matchup goes, Janoris Jenkins will be seeing a whole lot of Hilton on the outside. This is a matchup he can win too. Hilton is ranked 5th in DVOA and top 10 in HOG%(Player Profiler metric quantifying in game usage.) Don’t get me wrong, I love Marlon Mack this year but don’t let the talking heads put you off Hilton in an overlooked matchup.

Julio Jones 7.5% owned
This ownership is disgraceful. The long running joke of Julio’s inability to score TDs has gone the way of the Crying Jordan memes in recent weeks. He’s on a nice heater right now too, having scored 3 TDs in his last 2 contests. Sorting PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart reveals the 3rd best matchup against James Bradberry in bright green. As the highest priced WR at $8,700 and an orange “Q” tag next to his player card, let others pass this gem.

Gut Call:
Alshon Jeffrey, Robby Anderson, Gallup, Larry Fitzgerald (final home game?)

Chalk WR:
Nuk, Adams, Cooper, AB

TE
Dallas Goedert .25% owned
Since around Week 10, Rookie TE, Dallas Goedert, has been hovering around 50% of TE snaps for the Eagles. The receiving DVOA matchup is top 3 for the Eagles TEs. Goedert is very cheap, low owned and a red zone threat. He’s also a SPARQ freak for those of you into that sort of thing.

I don’t feel good about any of these TE options Sunday. I plan on having even ownership on the big TEs such as Ebron, Ertz, Kittle and Gronk while sprinkling in more fringe plays. I’m not seeing any chalk plays outside of Hooper, who I’m not thrilled with.

Gut Call:
Njoku, Jarwin, Brate

DST: NEP, MIA, LAR, DET

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!

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