College Football DFS Bowl Game Targets

If you need a College Football DFS appetizer before Sunday, I have been posting DK targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 5 games included in the Saturday DK contest:
Game Line  Total
UTST@UNT 2:00PM ET 7.5 68
ASU@FRES 3:30PM ET 6 53.5
TUL@ULL 1:30PM ET 3.5 61
MTSU@APPST 9:00PM ET 7 48
GSU@EMU 5:30PM ET 3 45

 

For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Jordan Love and Mason Fine. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky quarterback duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,033. This is the price range I will focus on each week.

Since DFS relaunched college football, the value this season mostly came from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

The latter may never be more true than it is for this season’s first bowl slate. Which brings me to my first selection…

Ian Eriksen | RB | Eastern Michigan $3,900

True story: This senior tailback is a Clarkston, Michigan native. My high school state championship football team beat Clarkston 17-15 in the semis, in below zero degree weather.

My brother dated a really hot chick in college who was from Clarkston. What does all this have to do Eriksen’s prospects for Saturday?

Nothing! But, he did take over as the lead back for EMU over this season’s final two games. Without any reason to suggest this changing for the senior’s final game, I’ll gladly take any starting running back at this price.

Michael Lawrence | WR | North Texas $3,900

Also, you should fast forward this link to the 1:32:40 mark, and watch for greatest finish to a football game ever. Spoiler alert: I had absolutely nothing to do with it! I kind of had the Mark Madsen championship team role…

Lawrence however, has had plenty to do in the North Texas passing game to wind down the season. In their last four games, he’s been second in either yards or catches.

If team leading wideout Rico Bussey Jr. can’t suit up, Lawrence would be an auto-play, as the Mean Green are slated to play in the highest scoring game of the day.

Ja’Marcus Bradley | WR | Louisiana $4,500

The run heavy Ragin’ Cajuns don’t always throw touchdowns, but when they do, it’s to Bradley. One thing to look out for during bowl season is these random teams that DK has not included in any contests this season.

Louisiana isn’t the Rams, but they are in the second highest projected scoring game of the day. Their entire offense seems like a classic DK misprice.

Along with Bradley, fellow receiver Ryheem Malone ($3,800) and tailback Elijah Mitchell ($4,900) make sense as great price/floor combination plays.

Other Considerations

N’Keal Harry Effect

Now that the best players are skipping their bowl games in real life, there is no doubt gambling and fantasy are the only reasons these games exist. It’s anyone’s guess as to which receiver will benefit the most from Harry’s absence.

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Choosing between Kyle Williams and Frank Darby make the most sense, but I would opt with the cheaper Brandon Aiyuk as the better price/floor/upside combination. Altogether, this feels like a stay away situation.

The Nightcap

The last game of the day is a real powerhouse matchup between Appalachian State and Middle Tennessee. Similar to the Rajin’ Cajuns, the Blue Raiders offense seems a bit under priced here.

A couple of freshman have come on strong late this season. Chaton Mobley ($4,600) has taken over as the team’s lead back. The guy that excites me the most for dart throw purposes is freshman wideout Zack Dobson ($3,500).

The Tarik Cohen like playmaker has scored five times in his first six college games. His 13 yards per touch average almost guarantees him a double-digit DK point floor, with fantastic upside.

Oh, and while we’re discussing App. State…

As a Michigan St. fan, I fully admit that was one of the proudest moments in our program’s history.

Fading the Chalk at Quarterback

Shai Werts | QB | Georgia Southern  $5,000

Anyway, this is where the fun really starts Saturday. Seriously, what the fuck is up with this dude’s price?!

The last time EMU played an option offense, they were smothered by Army’s running game. This goes back to my playing Navy’s Zach Abey theory earlier this season.

(Source: Michael Hickey/Getty Images North America)

Essentially, you’re getting guaranteed starting running back volume, with passing stats upside. All at one amazing price!

And, there’s more! These option teams are pretty game flow proof. Even if they’re down two scores in the second half, they aren’t changing the way they play. They can’t.

For the same reasoning, I am loving App. State’s Zac Thomas ($6,300) as my super flex play.

Chalk I can’t Live Without

DeAndre Torrey | RB | North Texas $9,300

For this five game slate, he has it all. Cowbell role in a high scoring offense. Involved in the passing game. Projected shootout. Sign me up.

With my bargain running quarterback combo in place, I’ll probably try and work him and Eno Benjamin into as many lineups as possible.

Good luck for the Saturday Bowl slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are much appreciated.

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