Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Welcome to Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread. This week Kyle looks to stay hot while Aaron looks to get back to his winning was after hitting a bit of a cold streak.

Kyle’s reaction: Things have been going #well the past three weeks for my picks. Another 2-1 has me at 6-3 over my last 9. It has me feeling like human torch (flame on!)

Last week the Ravens won with ease in Atlanta and Denver did the same in Cincinnati. Kansas City looked well on their way to covertown but let the Raiders hang around. As someone who needed Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in fantasy, I can’t say I was too disappointed.

If I can keep this 2-1 record going the rest of the way, we will all have a little extra cash for the holiday season.

Aaron’s reaction: Your boy is on quite the cold streak at the moment. After starting out the season with a scorching 18-10-1 record, I’ve plummeted back to earth losing 7 of my last 9 picks. My confidence hasn’t wavered however, and I’m coming back with some surefire picks this week as we head into the fantasy playoffs.

Last week, the Colts disappointed us big time with a 0-6 loss to the struggling Jags, the Falcons couldn’t muster any offense against the Ravens to cover what should have been an easy over, and the Bears choked against the surging G-men. I’m putting the past couple weeks behind me and getting back to the +$ this week!

Week 13 results:

Aaron: 0-3-0
Kyle: 2-1-0

On the season:

Aaron : 20-18-1
Kyle : 18-19-2

Miami Dolphins +7.5 vs New England Patriots

There are a couple factors that have me leaning the way of the team this week in Miami. The line opened up at Dolphins +9 and has fallen to 7.5. This number is still too high, even with the way the Patriots have played of late.

First, history is on the side of the Dolphins. Since 2013, Miami has not only covered but won outright 4 of the last 5 years. There is something that happens when New England makes their annual pilgrimage to South Beach. In the same seasons, Miami has lost by a TD or more in every game at New England.

Also, Miami is also much better at home vs on the road, going 5-1 this season ATS. I expect that play to continue this week. If history has taught us anything, a few shekels on the moneyline is not a horrible idea either.

Pick: Miami +7

Arizona Cardinals +3 vs Detroit Lions

Are the Arizona Cardinals good? Nope and they just lost Christian Kirk for the season. That said, the Detroit Lions are not a good football team either. They have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games.

Arizona has been an underdog in their own building 4 times this season. They are 3-1 against the spread with covers against Chicago and Seattle. They won outright against San Francisco. The Cardinals have been good ATS in general as of late, covering in 3 of their last 5 games including an outright win at Green Bay a week ago.

Detroit has issues stopping the run. This should allow David Johnson and Chase Edmonds to feast. If the run game gets going, it will take a ton of pressure of their rookie QB. Take the home team getting points.

Pick: Arizona +3

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 vs Baltimore Ravens

I might end up feeling dumb for being on the side of the public but Kansa City is the side to back in this spot. The Chiefs have been home favorites of a TD or less 3 times this season and the covered every time. Vegas got smart and inflated the lines for Kansas City as they were cover machines, cashing in 7 straight games to start the season. After failing to cover in 3 of their last 5, the lines have came back to reality a bit.

Part of the adjustment is thanks to an improved Ravens team that has buzz with Lamar Jackson under center. Baltimore however is overvalued with wins over the Falcons, Raiders and Bengals. All of those teams are bad and are getting worse as their season come to a close.

Kansas City returns home and gets to play their brand of football. They had their “Oh sh*t” game with Kareem Hunt gone. Spencer Ware will be able to fill his role well enough to keep this offense going. The defense should play better at home.

Take the home team to cover less than a TD.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots -7.5 @ Miami Dolphins

The Patriots haven’t been this good this year. That’s a statement that most agree with, right? That’s still the public opinion even though they are 9-3. The Patriots always play better as the playoffs are approaching. Brady’s stats are pretty pedestrian this year, but he hasn’t needed to be statistically elite for them to win games. Gronk has been banged up this year (what’s new) and his declining athleticism has hurt Brady’s TD totals.

The Dolphins have struggled to generate offense all year, relying on their defense to keep them in games. With Gronk looking as healthy as he’s going to be, Gordon getting more comfortable in the offense, and Michel back to 90-100% health, this offense is going to start clicking.

I think this is the Patriot’s breakout game of the year and they win this handedly. I’m talking about a 35-7 type game for the Pats. They can clinch the AFC East with a win this week and the entire team is going to be playing for that. On top of that, their main AFC contender at the moment (KC) is playing a tough Baltimore team. You know Belichick is hyping up that as a potential loss for the Chiefs… meaning, if the Patriots win and the Chiefs lose there is a tie for 1st place in the AFC.

Pick: Patriots -7.5

Carolina Panthers -1.5 @ Cleveland Browns

The Panthers have lost four straight and are seeing their playoff chances dwindling right in front of their eyes. This is a solid team on both sides of the ball. The Browns have shown flashes this season and I think they have finally turned the corner as a decent team… but they aren’t going to beat a Carolina team that is fighting for their season.

This Carolina team has won 32 games over the past 3 seasons (2015-2017) and it’s basically the same team this year. Cam and the Pound Squad are too prideful to lose this game. Funchess is back in action and should be taken away by Denzel Ward, opening up the field for DJ Moore and CMC to have big games. The defense comes to play and causes turnovers from the surprisingly successful rookie QB, Baker Mayfield. The line is close enough that it doesn’t really matter – this is about who wins the game. Carolina wins and keeps their playoff chances alive.

Pick: Panthers -1.5

New Orleans Saints -8 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints are coming off their 2nd loss of the season to a surging Dallas Cowboys team, which came 10 days ago on Thursday Night Football. The Saints’ other loss was at the hands of the Bucs, at home, during the 1st game of the season.

You might remember the 48-40 loss if you picked the Saints in survivor (like I did) or you had fantasy players on each team. The Saints want revenge against their division rivals. They’ve had 10 days to prepare for this game which is way too much time to give a well-coached team like the Saints. Their defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points since playing the Rams on 11/4.

The Bucs defense has been awful for most of the season and typically can only put up points in garbage time. This game surely projects as a shootout and Tampa may put up a TD or two in garbage time, but I think the Saints get off to a big lead in the first half and don’t look back. I’m expecting a 35-17 type game that covers this line easily.

Pick: Saints -8

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