College Football DFS Turkey Trot Targets

If you need a College Football DFS Friday snack after overeating the last 24 hours, you’ve come to the right place. This week, DraftKings has done us all a kindness. As a reward for getting through all the fake discussions with distant relatives we see once a year, we have an extra contest!

I have been posting DK targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 9 games included in the Friday DK contest:
Game Line Total
UCF@USF 4:15PM ET 14 68
UH@MEM 12:00PM ET 7 76.5
UT@KU 12:00PM ET 15 51.5
ORE@ORST 4:00PM ET 16.5 68
BUFF@BGSU 12:00PM ET 14.5 60
ARK@MIZZ 2:30PM ET 22.5 61.5
NEB@IOWA 12:00PM ET 10 53
UV@VT 3:30PM ET 3.5 50
ECU@CINCY 3:30PM ET 19.5 51.5

 

For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like a Darrell Henderson and McKenzie Milton. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,117. This is the price range I will focus on each week.

Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

However, player and team familiarity is starting to round into shape as the season approaches the stretch run. Gaining an edge requires taking more chances, or hitting big on mid range plays. Which brings me to my first selection…

Kevin Marks | RB | Buffalo $4,000

In addition to lesser known receivers, new contest teams can provide tons of value. Case and point, some sweet MACtion here with the Buffalo/Bowling Green game. After an embarrassing defeat last week, in just their second loss this season, the Bulls are heavy road favorites against a three win Bowling Green outfit.

Marks already has a firm role in the running game, whose season line of 132-670-9 is not far behind starter Jaret Patterson. Both will be celebrating Thanksgiving a day late, as they feast on the Falcons 128th ranked (out of 130, just sayin…) run defense.

At his price, this redshirt freshman is the perfect low price option to start building off of because of his guaranteed floor. Considering the matchup and potential game script circumstances, playing both Marks and Patterson is not out of the question.

As a team that typically is not featured in DFS contests, there is a strong case that the entire Buffalo offense is the most undervalued on the board. Also, even on a terrible team, Bowling Green receiver Scott Miller’s ($7,800) numbers are consistently YUGE. He’s worth every penny in my mind.

Trevon Bradford | WR | Oregon St. $5,100

Sticking with the lesser used teams theme, this junior Beaver wideout has the price/floor/upside combination to rival the leftovers plate you’ll be heating up Friday afternoon. Is Oregon St.’s offense good? Nope.

But, with starter Jake Luton ($5,800) finally healthy the past four games, they’ve managed to be how I would describe my golf game–functionally terrible. Here is a look at their top three receivers production over that time:

WR  Rec  Yds TDs
Hodgins            25 357 3
Bradford        24 281 2
Timmy            18 188 0

 

The Ducks pass defense has been an issue all season, allowing over 240 yards (ranked 91st in the country) per contest. On the road, the entire defense has been really bad, including allowing Utah freshman quarterback to throw for 262 yards on 18 completions, in his first career start two weeks ago.

Trevon Bradford #8 (Source: Jamie Sabau/Getty Images North America)

I don’t think they stand a chance of winning the Civil War. However, in the second highest projected scoring game on the board, I believe the Beaver offense will score enough to provide value. Luton, and all his receivers are my sneaky stack of the slate.

Also, it’s worth noting OSU loves to mix in Bradford on one or two reverses a game. Seeing that this is a Super Bowl type game for them, it wouldn’t be shocking to see all kinds of shenanigans from Oregon St.

CJ Verdell | RB | Oregon $5,900

I like the Beavers, but I love me some Ducks to put up plenty of points Friday. Verdell has affirmed his role as the clear lead back as the season has taken shape. He’s also been more involved in the pass game of late, with a 15-179-1 line over the last five games.

Oregon running back CJ Verdell #34 (AP/Young Kwak)

Ed Oliver’s return is giving me some slight Memphis concerns. Workload/matchup situations with guys like Devine Ozigbo ($6,000), Keaontay Ingram ($6,300), Olamide Zaccheaus ($6,900 why is he listed as an RB?), and my Pooka ($7,500) make me a little nervous.

Verdell’s price/matchup cocktail is just the drink I need to calm my DFS nerves. He’ll likely work his way into most of my lineups.

Tyler Snead | WR | East Carolina $4,800

Who? Yea, I’m not entirely sure either. But, what I am sure of is that the true freshman walk-on has been wildly productive in his first three college games since being promoted from the scout team.

He’s instantly become the second option for freshman quarterback Holton Ahlers ($7,400), who has also consistently produced since becoming QB1 one month ago. In his three games, Snead’s 15-236-4 line is second on the team only to stud senior Trevon Brown ($6,700 also great value).

Essentially, he’s ECU’s version of Rudy. Only this time Rudy doesn’t suck. Even in bad losses, Ahlers has provided the ECU passing game with a solid fantasy floor. I think that continues Friday.

Other Considerations

Missouri Running Backs

In last week’s episode of Crockett and Rountree, Larry ($6,800) had to step into a full-time gig with his buddy Damarea ($5,000) going down with a bum ankle. He responded well, going for a 26-135-1 line. If Crockett is unable to go Friday, Rountree’s ceiling would be as high as any running back in the field. Keep an eye on his status heading up to the 2:30pm EST kick.

Iowa Running Backs

Ivory Kelly-Martin ($4,600), who had been the lead of the a three-headed Hawkeye backfield, has seemingly disappeared the last couple games. The Cornhuskers run defense allows almost 190 yards (ranked 91st nationally) per game.

Next politician to outlaw this, and make Monday after the Super Bowl a national holiday gets my vote…

Similar to that putrid canned cranberry sauce, this ugly situation will likely be a hard pass for me. But, if I had to pick, Mekhi Sargent ($5,700) would be the Iowa tailback I’d go with.

Fading the Chalk at Quarterback

Jake Luton | QB | Oregon St. $5,800

See reasoning above.  Desmond Ridder ($6,800), and Ahlers would be my other choices.

Chalk I can’t Live Without

Dillon Mitchell | WR | Oregon $8,000

In a not super chalky field with the Oklahoma game being excluded, Mitchell is my top choice. He’s been on fire lately, and the OSU defense does not seem like the unit to slow him, and Justin Herbert down.

I like the Cincinnati offense to bounce back in big way, after getting somewhat embarrassed last week. For this reason, Michael Warren ($7,100) would be my top pick at running back.

Good luck for the Friday contest! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.

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