Is the College Football DFS Week 12 afternoon contest on DraftKings not enough for you before NFL Sunday? Outstanding! It isn’t enough for me either, which is why, in addition to my targets for the early slate, I will be posting my approach for the night contest each week here starting with Week 4.
My goal every week is to identify three to four low cost, or reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups. This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 6 games included in the night DK contest:
|[email protected]OU 7:30PM ET||36||69|
|[email protected]UCF 8:00PM ET||7||61|
|[email protected]UT 8:00PM ET||3||47|
|[email protected]CLEM 7:00PM ET||28.5||57.5|
|[email protected]VAND 7:30PM ET||3||67|
|[email protected]TA&M 7:00PM ET||17||45.5|
For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Kyler Murray and McKenzie Milton. What I will do is point out that rostering both in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,117. This is the price range I will try to focus on each week.
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Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!
However, player and team familiarity is starting to round into shape as the season approaches the stretch run. Gaining an edge requires taking more chances, hitting big on mid level plays, or just targeting the good ole Runnin Rebel defense. Which brings me to my first selection…
Jared Pinkney | TE | Missouri $5,100
The junior has settled in nicely as the main compliment to the Tigers stud wideout Kalijah Lipscomb ($7,100). His 35 catch, 573 yard season, by far already surpasses in his first two full years on campus. After netting three scores in his last two games, he now sits at six touchdowns through 10 games. That’s one more than his five career scores he had coming into 2018.
The best way to keep a career year going is a matchup with Ole Miss, who continued to be the DFS gift that keeps on giving last week, against Texas A&M. Needless to say, there will be plenty of Missouri student athletes throughout my lineups for the night contest. Considering the matchup, Lipscomb seems under priced as well.
Rashad Medaris | WR | Cincinnati $4,600
Similar to Pinkney, Medaris is breaking out in his junior year. Coming into this season, he had six career catches for 61 yards, with zero touchdowns. Getting his shot at a larger role through 10 games this year, he’s managed a 24-429-3 line. And, half of those grabs have come over the last three games, where he’s notched four catches in each contest.
He should have ample opportunity Saturday night to continue the trend, matched up with the hyper up tempo UCF style of play. Speaking of, is it just me, or does the entire Bearcat offense seem undervalued? Price tags on Cowbell running back Michael Warren II ($6,000), and dual threat quarterback Desmond Ridder feel waaaaaay low.
Hakeem Butler | WR | Iowa St. $6,000
On a related note, this price makes absolutely no sense. Here’s a look at what top opposing wideouts have been doing to Texas this season:
Six thousand for Butler?…
Since Brock Purdy has assumed the duty of Cyclone QB1, their stud top receiver has consistently been putting up big stat lines, and has been priced in the 7-8k range accordingly.
Butler has the ceiling to be the highest scoring receiver in the night field. I’ll be taking full advantage of the inexplicable price drop.
None! Well… Maybe Pooka Williams Jr. ($6,200) just because. With only six games on the board, my mind is made up. Saturday night is going to be a booze infused Commodore/Bearcat/Cyclone production at casa de Adcock.
Fading the Chalk at Quarterback
Brockmond Shurmur | QB | Vandernatti St. $7,000ish
I’m sure you get the joke by now. Besides, I don’t have the guts to play a quarterback for Kansas, UAB, or Daniel Jones ($5,800) at Clemson.
Chalk I cant Live Without
A.J. Brown | WR | Ole Miss $8,100
IF I were to spend up, Brown would be my selection. However, I believe there is enough advantage in terms of price with the aforementioned three teams, that I will likely fade any RB/WR in the 8k range.
Good luck for the Week 12 night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.