Welcome to Week 11 College Football Picks Against the Spread. For me, this week is ugly and features games I’m a lot more excited to watch than I am to bet. I will likely be sitting out much of the slate but I want to do my part and give you all some picks.
That said, last week I went 6-0-1, bringing my record to 39-20 on the season and 26-7 over the past 5 weeks. Let’s keep this train rolling down the tracks!
Where should we look this week?
Oklahoma Sooners -20.5 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
It’s Bedlam! Kyler Murray and Oklahoma return home after a narrow win on the road against Texas Tech. Normally I would say, take the points in a rivalry game but this is not one of those cases.
If the Sooners want a real shot at one of the four playoff spots, they must win impressively on their way to a Big 12 title. That starts this week against their in-state rival.
Oklahoma State is on the road for the second straight week and is coming in off a last second, heartbreaking loss to Baylor.
The Cowboys defense is currently 96th in the country for defensive efficiency and the Sooners offensively are second only to Alabama. Trey Sermon has been really good since taking over for Rodney Anderson and seemingly has 4 to 5 yards before defenders try to tackle him.
I don’t trust OSU to produce enough points to keep this game within three TDs even with Oklahoma’s issues on defense. Take the Sooners and the points in this spot.
Pick: Oklahoma -20.5
Florida State Seminoles +15.5 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
For me, this is a play against Notre Dame. While I expect the Irish win this game but Florida State will cover. Ian Book, the guy that makes this offense roll will not play in this game. Brandon Wimbush who makes very questionable decisions will get the start.
Notre Dame has failed to cover the spread 4 times this season which all came as double-digit. The Irish need to win out in order to lock in their playoff spot. With games coming against #13 Syracuse next week.
I expect the trend to continue at Notre Dame dominates this game from start to finish but keeps it ugly and wins by less than 15.5.
Pick: Florida State +15.5
North Carolina Tar Heels +10.5 at Duke Blue Devils
Raleigh, North Carolina is swept up in Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish and Duke Basketball. The football team however has a big game against their bitter rivals. David Cutcliffe and his boys have been great to me this season including winning on the field as 9.5 point underdogs a week ago.
This week they are big favorites at home. They have been favorites of 3 points or more 5 times this season and only covered once. That win came all the way back in Week 1. The last two times Duke was a favorite they lost outright to Pitt and Virginia.
The smart people are with me in backing the Tar Heels. Despite getting only 44% of the bets, they are getting 90% of the money. I think North Carolina is bad at football but I think they do enough to keep this game close and inside 10.5 points.
Pick: North Carolina +10.5
Bonus Picks: Ohio State/Michigan State Under 50.5, Georgia -14, Alabama -24