College Football DFS Week 8 Targets Day Slate

If you need a College Football DFS appetizer before Sunday, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week, is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 10 games included in the afternoon DK contest:
Game Line  Total
BAMA@TENN 10/20/2018 03:30PM ET 29 57
OU@TCU 10/20/2018 12:00PM ET 7.5 61
IL@WISC 10/20/2018 12:00PM ET 25.5 56
NCST@CLEM 10/20/2018 03:30PM ET 16.5 55.5
MEM@MIZZ 10/20/2018 04:00PM ET 9.5 74
KU@TTU 10/20/2018 03:30PM ET 20.5 60.5
PSU@IU 10/20/2018 03:30PM ET 14.5 61
AUB@MISS 10/20/2018 12:00PM ET 4 62.5
COL@UW 10/20/2018 03:30PM ET 15.5 51.5
MICH@MSU 10/20/2018 12:00PM ET 7 41.5

For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Tua Tagovailoa and Jonathan Taylor. What I will do is point out that rostering Tua and Taylor in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,017. This is the price range I will focus on each week.

Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing! Let’s get to it..

Tony Pollard | WR/RB/KR | Memphis $4,500

Last week, I discussed the Memphis running backs situation, and completely missed the better fantasy option of the two part-timers. Pollard, now fully recovered from am early season injury, is back to getting 8-10 touches lined up as both a running back, and receiver. I would argue that him being listed on DK as a running back, makes him slightly more valuable than if he were listed as receiver.

After all, in their most competitive game of the season last week, he led the team with six catches, and vultured a score from my Patrick Taylor Jr. selection on this 19 yard run in the second quarter. As a plus, Pollard is one of the most dangerous kick/punt returners in the country, and has yet to make a house call this season on a kickoff. It’s only a matter of time before gets his seventh career kick return score, which would tie him for the NCAA record.

I also don’t mind tight end Sean Dykes again this week as a dart throw.

Whop Philyor | WR | Indiana $4,200

Big things were anticipated from Philyor coming into his sophomore season, and he started to deliver a few weeks back, with a break out 13-148-1 line, in a 35-21 loss to Michigan St. in their Big Ten opener. Since then, a nagging ankle injury has kept him sidelined.

If there is a clear indication regarding his playing status before Saturday, this could be another matchup for this Burger King loving wideout to get his grub on once again.

(Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

In Penn St.’s two games against competent offenses, they have been much more vulnerable through the air, than on the ground. With the Ohio St. game in particular, they surrendered tons of YAC on short passes over the middle, and allowed two long touchdowns on screen passes.

Last week, against the Spartans depleted receiving core, Felton Davis routinely got open, even though he was the only threat left to guard in the MSU passing attack. And, things will not be any easier for this suspect unit on the road against an offense that loves to throw the ball, and in terms of health and talent, is much better than what the Spartans had out there one week ago.

With Whop (yes, his father nicknamed him this due to his love of whoppers growing up) serving as IU’s most explosive receiver, who lines up everywhere on the field–if healthy–he’s a must start in my mind, at this price. Same goes with Auburn’s JaTarvious Whitlow ($5,600) at running back. If healthy, he has a great matchup for a potentially huge game against Ole Miss.

Justyn Ross | WR | Clemson $5,000

I am just going to keep putting him here until he is correctly priced, or stops scoring touchdowns. I still believe he’ll have one or two monster games before the season is over.

Other Considerations

Jalen Knox | WR | Missouri $4,500

Being in a passing offense, in a game with the highest total on the board, Mizzou receivers will be of great interest for players in the afternoon slate. Since top wideouts Emanuel Hall (already ruled out), and Nate Brown sustained injuries, the true freshman Knox has become quarterback Drew Lock’s biggest playmaker in the passing game, recording a 5-111-1 line over the last two games against tough competition.

Knox, who is averaging over 18 yards per catch, should see a much friendlier sight when he lines up across from a Memphis pass defense that allowed UCF’s McKenzie Milton to throw for 296 yards on just 17 completions in Week 7.

Also, if veteran receiver Nate Brown ($3,300) does suit up, he should immediately be heavily involved in the passing game coming in at a great price, in what should be a shootout.

Seth Williams | WR | Auburn $4,000

Similar to the Mizzou passing game, DFSers should be all over the Auburn offense in a plus matchup, with possibly the worst power five conference defense in the country. Williams, another true freshman, is the best price/floor/upside combination in the receiver group for me.

He’s been quarterback Jarrett Stidham’s ($6,000, solid QB value play) big play guy in the passing game, as opposed to Ryan Davis’s ($4,800) volume. Going for upside, I’ll take the cheaper Williams, who just came off a career best 5-85-1 line in just his seventh college game.

Michigan St. Receivers

The health of this group continues to be an area of interest for DFS players wanting to churn out value. Without starter Cody White the last two games, Cam Chambers ($3,700) seems have developed the most rapport with quarterback Brian Lewerke grabbing eight passes, for 137 yards.

In addition to White, another starter, and MSU’s second leading receiver from last season, Darrell Stewart Jr. ($3,700) also sat out last week’s game in Happy Valley. Assuming he suits up, I would still prefer him to Chambers, Laress Nelson ($3,000), or Jalen Nailor ($3,000), who also sat last week.

Which reminds me, how the fuck did they beat Penn St. on the road?…

(Sept. 7, 2018 – Source: Getty Images North America)

Texas Tech Offense

Red Raiders starting quarterback Alan Bowman’s playing status will likely be up in the air until late in the week, or even game time. If he starts, I would consider the entire receiving core to be under priced against a very questionable Jayhawk defense at home, where Tech loves to throw crooked numbers up on weaker defenses.

If Bowman sits, Jett Duffey ($8,500) would take over as starter, leading what would likely be a more run first approach to fit his skill set. Filling in for Bowman last week at TCU, Duffey led the team in rushing, with 16 carries for 83 yards, and one score in the 17-14 road win.

At running back, my choice would be Ta’Zhawn Henry ($5,300) over Tre King ($5,200), but it’s anyone’s guess as to how this group will be deployed. Probably best to avoid it for now.

Fading the Chalk at Quarterback

A.J. Bush | QB | Illinois $4,700

In their last two games, the Badgers defense has been exposed as mediocre, and specifically has shown a vulnerability to running quarterbacks. No, I don’t think Illinois stands a chance in this game. But, even in a blowout loss last week to Purdue, Bush still managed 14.2 DK points, and carried the ball 20 times.

Besides, going back the point about Wisconsin’s defense, who’s to say Illinois can’t put up a fight, making it interesting for at least three quarters? Just ask the millionaire who started Brock Osweiler in DK last week if he thinks anything is possible.

For the aforementioned reasons regarding another Little Ten defense, I also think Peyton Ramsey ($6,100) has solid value this week at quarterback.

Chalk I can’t Live Without

Jonathan Taylor I RB I Wisconsin $9,700

Well, let’s try this again after last week’s Dexter Williams whiff. Normally, I don’t like paying up this high at any position other than quarterback, but I am willing to make an exception for Taylor at home against a hapless Illinois squad whose most exciting feature is Lovie Smith’s beard.

(Source: Dylan Buell/Getty Images North America)

If you look at Taylor’s game log, you’ll notice the Badgers love to pad his stats against inferior opponents. After an embarrassing loss at UofM last week, Wisconsin gets an Illinois defense that allowed over 220 yards rushing to Purdue in Week 7.

Three weeks ago against Penn St., the Illini effort to stop the run was so asinine, I’ll just let you click the box score link and enjoy it for yourself.

I think Taylor and the Badgers do what they do best Saturday. Run it up against horrible teams, pretending like they’re good, and all that stuff that happened last week was just a bad dream.

He’ll need to get north of 200 yards, with a couple of scores to provide solid ROI at his price, but I think he does it. And he’s by far less of a risk than Henderson ($8,800), and Etienne ($9,400) who come with legit game script and/or matchup risks.

Good luck for the Week 8 afternoon slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are greatly appreciated. Click here for a look at the night slate.

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