By John Bush
Sunday Risk and Reward Week 9 Games Edition
Sunday Risk and Reward Week 9 will include:
Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)
I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.
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I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.
Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs
Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green
Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data
Figure 1. Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables.
- Predicted Total Game Points
- 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis
Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)
HOU, DAL, NYG, and BAL have most high-risk players this week on teams remaining!
SEA, ATL, IND, and TEN are the teams this week with the lowest numbers of high-risk players!
Weather Warning – Common knowledge suggests wind over 15 miles per hour will lower the scoring!
** NFL Weather
Two High Scoring Shoot Game Predicted for Sunday
NO VS TB
The Saints are favorites vs TB. Brees faces a nice +18 DAP (add 3 TDs?) and +4.8 QB DAP (+1TD). He gets 4 – 5 TDs this game. He is low risk 94!
The NOs WRs get to feast against a +14 WR DAPs (+2TDs vs Average). They get those 4 TDs. Thomas is low risk 98, Ginn a mid risk 75, and Coleman high risk 42! Snead is the mystery WRs. Last year he was WR2/1 now? I am playing Thomas and Ginn and I picked up Coleman for WR4s!
The TEs have been silent. They have a -1.4 TE DAP
Itchy and Scratchy the RBs will get 2 TDs. They face an average game RB DAP of +0.3. Ingram is low risk 97 and Kamara a low risk 92! Keys they must get the average to keep Brees going in the passing game!
Winston faces a -0.3 overall DAP and a +0.3 QB DAP. An average passing game for TB. That is not enough to keep up with the Saints! Game Key them must double their output! 4 TDs! Winston is mid risk 64
The WRs of TB are very good and will fight a -1.7 WR DAP. Evans is low risk 97, Jackson at 75 and the others are high risk! They get 2 TDs.
The TE tandem can get scores vs -1.4 TE DAP but is unclear. Brate is low risk 87 and Howard mid risk 40!
Can Martin deliver the goods so Winston can step up? He is low risk 88 and the others are high risk. He can score vs a +2.8 RB DAP. He can also score twice and needs to do so for the TB team to win!
KC VS DAL
This is a toss up for me! When KC has the ball, Smith gets a nice +7 DAP (+1TD) to average. 3 to 4 TDs! Smith is low risk 82 vs a +2 QB DAP!
Hill the WR gets a nice +5 WR DAP and can get 2 TDs. He is the game key and must get those 2 TDs for KC to win! He is low risk 93! The other 2 WR are a high risk low ranked!
Kelce is also going to be pushed vs a -2.2 TE DAP. He can score and get 100 yards and is low risk 99!
Hunt will go into a +1.5 RB DAP and will have to bag the DAL to get his scores (2 TDs) and 100! Low risk and 99 ranked! Nice!
DAL get Elliot and that can be the winning factor! DAK goes into an average 0 DAP and +0.6 QB DAP. He gets his 2 to 3 Scores. DAK is low risk 91!
Elliot is low risk 98 and faces a -2.8 RB DAP. He scores and gets a feast of yards! He is the game key!
Witten the TE has had a nice season and faces a -2 TE DAP He will get check-downs and 6 catches. Mid Risk 80 ranking! He can score but not a given!
Dez must score for Dallas to win! He is ranked low risk 94! DEZ get a chance to get 2 scores vs a +6 (Add TD). He can do it tonight to seal the DAL win!
Three Below Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday
I will give the highlights as the next games are going to lower scoring games!
PHI vs DEN
PHI vs Paxton – Eagles Win!
PHI__ KEY Ertz vs +3.5! 2 TDs! Ranked low risk 100. Game Key!
Tough game for RBs and WRs vs -10 and -8 RB/WR DAPs!
Paxton vs PHI. DEN Loses. If PAXTON can win it is because he fights a +2.3 and 1.4 QB DAP!
The DEN RB vs -4 RB DAP. Mid risk group.
Thomas and Sanders – 2 scores vs +3.7 WR DAP! Thomas mid risk 87 and Sanders 80 low risk.
AJ Derby too high-risk check-down catches! 55 ranked!
NYG vs LAR
NYG and ELI vs LAR Defense. Lose? The only chance is the RBs vs a +5 RB DAP. Darkwa a mid risk 67 and can get 2 scores! Gives Eli who is high risk 20 a chance vs a-3.8 QB DAP. WRs and TEs face tough DAP of -5 and -3! Tough
Goff is in play vs the NYG D! Low risk 48. He faces a +4.9 and 1.3 QB DAP! Has an average game.
Gurley is the key for the win vs +1 RB DAP. He is low risk 98!
Higbee vs +5 TE DAP. DFS tournament play?
WRs vs -3 DAP (1/2 TD less than average) Playing Kupp as a WR3/4 as I rank him low risk64! Woods mid risk 62 and Watkins mid risk 59!
CAR vs ATL
CAM gets a nice +5.3 overall DAP and +0.9 QB DAP to work with. Has a chance to crush the Falcons! High Risk 77. Lose of K Ben and his seasonal play = high risk! Play him if needed
Stewart can do it on the ground vs +4.2 RB DAP. Scores plus 80! High Risk 54. McCaffrey gets plenty of passing attention and can score! Low risk 90! Nice DFS play!
WRs vs -1.2 Funchess maybe? Mid to High-risk crew left! Devin at 83!
Dickerson vs -0.6 DAP. Mid risk 63! Check-downs only
Matt Ryan needs to go back to the future to win this game. He is facing a -20 DAP (minus 3 scores!) and -3.7 QB DAP. Maybe gets a score. Mid Risk 60. That might be the best case for him though!
Red across the board for a team not doing what they could do last year! I have concerns for all skill players! I still hope for Julio and have him at low risk 100. Sanu is also in the mix. Maybe they get 2 TDs???
Freeman has been less than drafted for! Low risk 93 vs -7 (One score less). He will fight to score!
TEN vs BAL
They are favored because BAL’s lack of production. Default winners?
Mariota fights a -5.4 overall and -3.6 QB DAP. (1/2 score less via passing). Mid risk 54!
The WRs are -7 DAP (one score less!) Unless Davis (Mid Risk 53) is a miracle the WR are going to be fairly quiet! Mathews is the PPR guy with check-down catches! He is Mid risk 68!
If the TE Walker plays that seals the victory as he has a nice +3.7 DAP to battle into! He gets 1 score or more. Game KEY! Low risk 81!
The RB together can handle +0.6 and must get an average game! 1 score and nice yards! Murray is the guy Low risk 86 and Henery is high risk 64!
Flaco has all the force going for him. He should get the victory but given his injuries and seasonal performances it is doubtful! He faces a +6.7 and 1.5 QB DAP! Low risk but 11 ranked. Not Expecting Much!
Collins can get the victory if he takes the BAL game over vs a +0.9 DAP. Mid Risk 72! Allen is high risk 75. If BAL wins one of these guys is the reason!
Watson should get some catches vs a +0.1 DAP at low risk 66! (average game for him)
The BAL WR contend against a +2.2 DAP. Maclin is the best WR at mid risk 67. Not sure who scores!
WAS vs SEA
Cousins faces a tough go vs -4.7 DAP and -2.3 QBDAP. He is a mid risk 56 this week! His average game is the ceiling for him. 2 to 3 scores!
The WAS WRs do have a nice +1.6 WR DAP and Crowder showed up last week. He is Mid Risk 65. Maybe a score. The WR ranked has also Chris Thompson low risk 88! Even an RB he has been a WR in use! 2 Scores as his ceiling!
Davis vs a -0.2 TE DAP (average game). Score? Low risk 77
RBs. Kelly and Perine (if used) are there to set up Thompson!
Wilson produced last week and if the WAS game can get going that pushes the SEA offense. They do face a tough D of -8.6 DAP and -1.9 QB DAP. Wilson has to get it going or SEA can lose! I think he can at low risk 97. 3 scores!
The issue for Wilson is the WR face s -9 WR DAP (1.5 scores less) So the WR ceiling is 2 scores only! Baldwin is low risk 94, P Rich is mid risk 66 and T Loc is a 70! They all can score and might!
James G the TE has the advantage vs +2.5 TE DAP and scores 1 to 2. Mid risk 95!
The RBBC is a “you guess them” vs a -0.3 RB DAP!
THREE Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday
CIN vs JAX
Dalton is going to be crushed by this D! -18 DAP (-3 scores) and -8 QB DAP.
Mixon and Kroft have the only chance for CIN vs a +1.2 RB and TE DAP. They must score 3 scores to get CIN the win! Mixon get action at low risk 84 and Kroft at low risk 75!
AJ Green is in for the toughest game this season? -9.1 DAP! Mid risk 94.
The Game Key for JAX is their Defense! Bortles is been hidden and faces a -4 and -1 QB DAP. An average game for him at mid risk 29!
Fournette caps the victory from their defense vs a +1.2. Ranked low risk 95. 2 scores is the mark he can get!
The JAC WR vs a -6 (one score less) might score 1 or 2 but seems a stretch! Lee and Hurns mid risk 65. Dede has been on the shelf and is a high risk 27. He could be the guy can show up in here. I have picked him up in leagues as a stash and see WR!
ARI vs SF
Tough game as we have mystery QBs with good DAPs!
ARI is favored because of AP! He sees a +10 (2 scores added to average) He can get a hat trick and crush the SF team! He is 84 low risk!
Larry the WR sees an average game and gets a score maybe vs +0.8. Ranked at low risk 89!
SF must pass to win this game. Beathard vs a +3.2 QB DAP and His WRs have a +9 WR DAP (1.5 score added). Goodwin should get a score at 70 low risk and Taylor can get a surprise score at high risk 48.
Kittle is good but vs a -2.3 might be a check-down TE and no scoring at mid risk 53!
Hyde is mid risk 86 and fights a -0.3 RB DAP and needs to score but it is unclear!
Hou vs IND
Should be a low scoring game but given the loss of Watson, the complete game picture is very clouded!
The good news id HOU faces the easy team that is IND! Miller the RB needs to take over the game and give Savage a chance! Miller vs a +5 DAP (one score added). He is low risk 94 and is a DFS play! 2 scores are possible.
If Miller does well, that can lead to Hopkins and Fuller to score. Both are high risk! &8 and 51 ranked!
Griffin could end up scoring as the TE is the best friend of a struggling QB. He faces a +2 TE DAP and is mid risk 58!
Not sure who steps up in here. Brisset might surprise vs a +2.9 QB DAP! He is a low risk 43 ranked QB this week!
He can score via Hilton who is facing a +6.6 WR DAP (one score added) Hilton can get 2 scores and is at high risk 77!
Doyle has been the lifeline for Brissett and figures again vs +0.9 TE DAP! Low risk 94. Scores 1 to 2 for IND to win!
Gore is about out of “juice” and is a mid risk 65 while the soon to be top RB Mack at low risk 62! They both fight into a -8 RB DAP. They get need to do enough to key the HOU honest for passing to occur!