My Draftkings predictions for the last UFC event went off pretty smoothly. In fact I had probably the best night yet as far as daily fantasy MMA goes. While I’m obviously hoping to keep the momentum going, the pricing and odds for UFC 185: UFC 185: Pettis vs. Dos Anjos are pretty interesting in my opinion. So without further ado, lets get into this weeks favorites, underdogs and value picks!
As always we start with the Vegas odds first. I try to get at least 3 favorites into my lineup, but sometimes you can fit 4 and sometimes only 2. Pricing with each event is always a different animal so keep that in mind while constructing lineups. It looks like you will easily be able to fit 3 favorites in this week though as there really aren’t any mid priced options. Fighters are mostly priced accordingly, so you have no choice but to take a shot on at least 2 underdogs this week due to pricing.
The favorites I like this week include Anthony Pettis ($12,200), Elias Theodorou ($11,700), Daron Cruickshank ($10,600) and Carla Esparza ($10,500). You could almost call Cruickshank and Esparza mid priced, making them near must plays in my opinion this week. The biggest favorite of the night though is Henry Cejudo ($12,400), but it is really hard for me to justify that price when Anthony Pettis is $200 less. On top of that the odds for the Cejudo vs. Cariaso fight going to a decision are pretty good, which also makes that high price tag not so desiring.
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Looking ahead to the underdogs, there are a couple that I am a fan of this week. We have learned in the past that any fighter can win on any given night so don’t totally sleep on these guys.This week, there are so many fighters in the 7k range so you pretty much have to pick at least one of them to roster. Chris Cariaso ($7,100) is definitely a consideration in a fight that is a favorite to go the distance. Two other guys I like this week are Matt Brown ($7,800) and Roy Nelson ($8,400). Brown takes on Johhny Hendricks ($11,700) in a fight that is favorable to end in a decision for either fighter. However with the styles both fighters bring to the table, it could be a bit unpredictable and could pretty much end in any variety of ways at any given time. Thats at least a good shot at upside for Matt Brown. The final underdog I like for UFC 185 is Roy Nelson taking on Alistair Overeem ($11,100) in a heavyweight showdown. First and foremost Vegas thinks this fight is going to end via stoppage pretty quickly, so either of these fighters make a good choice. However for the price Roy Nelson is the better play. Despite him being the underdog, and having a disadvantage in both reach and overall size, Nelson has the one punch knockout power you want to take a chance on for the price in the Draftkings format.