Welcome to week twelve of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. Last Sunday was a rough day for us. I was wise to avoid Denver as my pick of the week due to them being the away team, but both Washington and New Orleans let me down along with their home crowds. You win some and you lose some. Hopefully the below can help those of you that are still alive. Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom.
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
While there were no big division surprises last week, that doesn’t mean they are any safer to pick this week. Keep in mind, the Chargers only beat the winless Raiders by seven points. Do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:
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- Kansas City at Oakland
- Green Bay at Minnesota
- Jacksonville at Indianapolis
- NY Jets at Buffalo
- Arizona at Seattle
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
Finally, we got some exciting prime time games. While the New England game wasn’t close, it was certainly eye-opening, and we can see that this team is as dominant as ever, despite who is in their receiving corp. As for Monday, we got a great matchup (that maybe shouldn’t have been), but nonetheless it’s about time these games lived up to their primetime labels. Avoid the below marquee games this week:
- Dallas at NY Giants
- Baltimore at New Orleans
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Denver lost to St. Louis. Seattle lost to Kansas City. San Francisco came very close to losing to the NY Giants. Be aware and avoid the below game where the favorite is the away team:
- Cincinnati at Houston
Step 4 – Make your pick!
As we get further into the season, you realize that there become fewer easy options for the pick of the week. That being said, after being burned by Washington last week, I’m going to learn from that lesson and pick against them this week. While San Francisco doesn’t have the best home record this season, it is worth noting that Washington has won only one away game in 2014 and they are traveling far from home this weekend. Traditionally teams don’t play very well when traveling cross-country for a game. My pick of the week is:
San Francisco over Washington
Other options I like this week:
Philadelphia over Tennessee
I think Tennessee’s rookie quarterback has a lot of potential to be a good player in this league. That being said he is far from that point and should struggle mightily against Chip Kelly and the Eagles.
Denver over Miami
My heart and gut tells me that Miami can actually win this game, but my brain tells me that Denver is coming off a loss and playing at home where they are 5-0. Take that as you will.