NFL week 3 was a real shock to my system. I assumed a team that played a slug it out game in hot weather, the week prior to traveling to the East Coast for an early kick was a sure sign for a let down. The Chargers proved they might be a really good team and among the elite in the AFC. The Bills reminded us that they are indeed awful. I expected another impressive performance on national television by the Panthers and welp, not so much. The Steelers were impressive and beat the Panthers handily.
Week 4 will answer some big questions for this season. Are the Packers a legit playoff contender or just a fantasy football squad that lacks the necessary components? Are the 49ers a real mess without key components or will be able to tread water until they get their missing pieces back? Will a big road win re-establish the Panthers as contenders?
While the start to my season for NFL against the spread picks hasn’t been ideal, this is the week it gets turned around.
>Season Total 5-10
>Upset Alert 0-3
Chicago Bears +1 ½ vs Green Bay Packers
The Chicago Bears have been impressive in the past two weeks including a comeback against the San Francisco 49ers. They are heading home to take on a Green Bay Packer team that has been shuffling. The Packers offense looked anemic in Detroit, a week ago after seemingly finding their in the second half against the New York Jets. This line has shifted from Bears -1 to Packers -1 ½ due to money coming in on Green Bay. That said, I really like the Bears in this spot. The offense continues to produce and the defense has made plays week after week, thanks in large part to the emergence of Kyle Fuller. The Bears will win this game at home in a close one.
Buffalo Bills +3 at Houston Texans
Can’t believe I’m buying in on Buffalo after the way they looked a week ago. I believe that has more to do with the Chargers being really good instead of the Bills being really bad. The Bills have a strong defense, especially against the rush. While EJ Manuel is far from a elite quarterback, I think he will do enough to best Ryan Fitzpatrick. This game will be ugly but the Bills get a win on the road.
Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 at San Francisco 49ers
The Philadelphia Eagles are coming into San Francisco as a 3-0 team. Their wins have required late game heroics including being down double digits in all three. The San Francisco 49ers haven’t looked like the team they have been the past few seasons. They have blow first half leads in the last two games and currently sit at 1-2. While I think the Niners win this game, it will not be by more than a field goal. The best bet on this game is to take the Niners in the first half and bet the Eagles in the second half.
Minnesota Vikings +3 vs Atlanta Falcons
After the way the Atlanta Falcons looked a week ago everyone will be on them against the Vikings. However the Falcons have looked like one team in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome and a the complete opposite on the road. The Vikings will have Teddy Bridgewater under center with a full week of practice. A full week of preparation will allow the Vikings to use more of the playbook and have Bridgewater more comfortable knowing he will be the starter. I expect this game to be a nail bitter that the Vikings defense seals late.
Carolina Panthers +3 at Baltimore Ravens
The Carolina Panthers were embarrassed on national television by the Pittsburgh Steelers a week ago. Naturally throw all you got on the Panthers in this spot. The world will be on the Ravens in the situation. Steve Smith will get to play against his former team. However, the Panthers are the right side. They are a strong team with a really good defense. They should rebound in a big way Sunday, even on the road.
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