Two prime time games this week for the NFC South….one is going to be a shootout and one is going to be….well Florida football teams trying to compete at who can screw up less. Well, Miami is at least half decent. A couple of power house defenses in San Fran, and the Seahawks head on the road to take on the (terrible) Falcons!
Seattle at Atlanta
Matt Ryan has been brutal the past 2 games so I can’t recommend starting him this week. The only plus for him this week is that they are at home and he (normally) plays better at home. However, according to PFF, Seattle has the #1 pass rush in the league and the Falcons are ranked 23rd in the league in pass blocking. To say Matt Ryan will likely be beaten around in this game is an understatement. I expect Seattle to control this game from the start and for ATL to be down, so Matt Ryan may pass a lot, so I guess there’s that. I wouldn’t start him this week though.
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Steven Jackson actually ran the ball well against a tough Carolina defense, but he didn’t get the touches and the Falcons offense is running about as well as I did after I tore my ACL. Good news for S-Jax is that Seattle gave up 198 rush yards last week and 200 yards the week before, if you include the QB running numbers. He’s the clear RB to own now and I think if the Falcons want to have any shot at winning, they will run the ball (or attempt to). Jacquizz only had 11 touches last week, I’m not touching him anymore.
Roddy White may return this week (be sure to monitor injury reports) but if he plays, he will get a heavy dose of Richard Sherman. Seattle ranks 2nd against the pass and have given up 9 passing TDs in 9 games. I don’t like White this week if he plays because this defense is very good against the pass and he may not be fully healthy. Harry Douglas has been good against 3 fairly tough defense the past 3 weeks. I think that changes this week and he has a down week. Tony Gonzalez found the end zone last week and I think will be able to work the middle of the field like he always has. Unless you have a better option, you’re playing Gonzalez.
Carolina at San Francisco
Cam Newton is going to be in for a serious test this week. He is going up against a legit defense and he’s on the road. I would temper expectations given his performance last week. The 49ers look like one of the hottest teams in the league right now. They’ve given up just 10 TDs through the air in 8 games this season. Cam is a stud who you’re starting, but this week he might disappoint.
Tolbert is the best running back to play if you’re going to play one of these running backs…..wait, WHAT? Yeah that’s happening right now. Tolbert has scored in 3 of the past 4 games. This whole backfield is a dumpster fire. It’s going to be pretty much a split between DeAngelo and Stewart, until they get inside the 10-15 yard line and then it’ll be vulture time. I don’t like any of these guys against the 12th ranked rush defense.
Greg Olsen had another solid game last week – though he saw just 5 targets. I like him as a TE1 even in a somewhat tough match up. Steve Smith had another mediocre game last week against a weak defense. I expect these Carolina WRs to have some trouble this week. Steve Smith is your best bet at WR, but I don’t expect more than a WR3 performance from him. In the past 3 weeks, San Fran have only given up over 100 yards to Larry Fitzgerald and even that was only due to a freak 75 yard play. Brandon LaFell lead the team in receiving yards, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into him.
Dallas at New Orleans
New Orleans is at home and I bet they’re mad about playing like crap last week. Brees is going up against the 31st best pass defense in the league who has given up 16 passing TDs this year. You can bank on him being a Top 5 QB this week.
So the running game for New Orleans is even worse than I thought……Sproles was injured last week and looks to have a concussion – check the injury reports with him. I think you have to let him blow up on your bench before you can trust him again. If Sproles is out, Pierre Thomas will get a big boost because he will be the primary pass catching back. With Dallas being middle of the road against the run, PT should get most of the carries and has some value in PPR leagues. Ingram shouldn’t be started unless he’s the only active running back and the Saints are playing a high school team.
Colston…..what the hell man. See if he practices this week – if he plays I still think you sit him, but he has a shot for a good match up. I feel like this game is going to be a good old fashion shootout. If Colston is out, Moore looks like the guy who will benefit. Its tough in this offense (aside from Jimmy Graham) because it looks like one guy has a good week and the next week its another guy. I think Brees missed Colston last week and if he plays he will see a lot of targets. Moore would be a guy to look at in deeper leagues. Jimmy Graham – he’s starting if he’s playing, and it doesn’t look like he will miss any time…..in fact it doesn’t even look like he is injured.
Miami at Tampa Bay
Tampa actually showed some life last week IN Seattle. Then they went back to turning into a dumpster fire. Glennon played pretty well, but I will continue my stance on him that he’s not good enough to start. Miami also played great last week against Dalton. But as Glennon plays better, it helps Jackson and his receivers.
Mike James – how is it that he is running wild and Douggie couldn’t do anything?! He has looked solid the past couple weeks and if you’re a Martin owner or are in need of RB help – he’s your guy. Miami is 21st against the run and he just shredded a much more talented defense last week. He was minimally involved in the passing game last week, but apparently he can throw Tebow touchdown passes. I wouldn’t expect that again, but I would think he gets involved in the passing game a little more this week. I think he’s an RB2 this week.
Vincent Jackson had a really down week last week – I would think this could be chalked up to Richard Sherman and the Seattle secondary. He will have a huge advantage in size on Brent Grimes this week, so I would expect a big game from him. Glennon will look for him as he did before the Seattle game. Other than Vincent Jackson, the only other potentially relevant pass catcher on this team is Tim Wright. He has scored the past 2 weeks which helps his stats, but the targets look to be there. He’s potentially a low-end TE1 this week in a solid match up.