Week 10 NFL Picks and Props

Week 10 of the NFL Season is here as Week 9 gave us more questions than answers with some of the best teams losing to some of the worst. Thanks Buffalo! But thanks to a wonky week of results, we have a tremendous opportunity to find value.

This column had another .500 thanks to Aaron finding some winners. I am looking to help shoulder the load this week and find the early season form that helped me get ahead on my picks.

So who do we like this week? Let’s take a look. But first, let’s recap our results thus far.

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Kyle

Week: 1-2

Season: 16-9-1

Aaron

Week: 2-1

Season: 18-9

Aaron’s Week 10 Picks

And we are back in the green for the week! After one down week, it felt good to get back on the 2-out-of-3 train with wins on my top 2 picks.

The Chargers barely snuck out the -2.5 with a game-winning FG with 5 seconds left. It was a much closer game than I expected, but a cover is a cover!

The Dolphins also “snuck in” a cover beating the lowly Texans by 8 points. I picked the Dolphins -6.5 thinking Tyrod was out and Tua was in… so I’ll chalk a little of this up to luck (fairly) but this was a truly ugly game across the board.

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I took a risk and bet the 49ers on the hopes that Colt McCoy started, and the line would move substantially. Colt McCoy started alright… and he dominated. Have to give props where props are due here – I should have stuck with the theme of taking the better team!

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ Oakland Raiders

Eerily similar to last week’s pick of the road favorite winning by just under a field goal. The Chiefs have struggled this year, no denying that, but they are still an elite-level team with a defense that is somewhat improving. 

The past 6 times these two teams have met, the Chiefs have been favored by greater than 7 points. The Chiefs are 5-1 in those matchups SU and have covered this number in all 5 wins. The Raiders have played fairly well without Gruden, but being down their deep threat, Henry Ruggs, could lead to their offense not being able to put up the points required to beat an improving Kansas City team. Look for the Chiefs to start turning their season around here in a divisional matchup.

Bonus bet – I’m playing a same game parlay here with the Raiders +7.5 and Over 48.5 at +120 on Draft Kings. I think the Raiders keep it within a TD and plenty of scoring occurs.

Pick: Chiefs -2.5

Carolina Panthers +10.5 @ Arizona Cardinals

Yup, I’m betting against the Cards yet again this week. This time it’s with a considerable amount of points. I’ve seen this setup far too many times in the past few years, where a poorly performing QB is benched (or “hurt” in Darnold’s case) and the backup comes in and performs admirably. PJ Walker has gotten some run in recent years, so he’s not going out there fully blind. Christian McCaffrey should get more of his usual workload as well, which cannot be understated.

When CMC plays, this is a completely different team. They started out 3-0 with him and then lost almost every game without him. On the other side of the ball, Carolina’s defense is still Top 10 in the league. If any team can keep Kyler & Co. in check it’s Ron Rivera’s defense.

Kyler Murray is poised to return this week, but I cannot see him being 100% in this game. The same logic as last week is relevant here for me… if his legs aren’t 100% he cannot make all the amazing plays he normally makes sneaking out of the pocket. As of Thursday, he isn’t practicing, so locking this in at 10.5 is very safe in my eyes. DeAndre Hopkins is in the same position – hasn’t practiced yet and his status is up in the air.

Regardless, I’m comfortable with this line if both Kyler and Hopkins play… I’ll take the generous line if one or both sits one more week.

Pick: Panthers 10.5

Same Game Parlay: New England Patriots ML & Under 45.5 (+235)

There’s a lot of lines I could take for my 3rd official pick, but I want to give an upside play here for fun. With the news of Nick Chubb potentially being out with Covid, I’m going to jump on both of these plays now.

Belichick is a master at scheming around offensive superstars and/or offenses missing key pieces. With Hunt on the shelf, Chubb makes this offense run. Belichick will find a way to really slow this game down and not let Baker Mayfield and Co. beat him through the air.

On the flip side, New England could be without Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, or both for this game. Regardless, I don’t see either team abandoning the run game here. Hence the under bet. I think this is a battle of the trenches, but I’m giving Mac Jones and the Patriot’s passing attack the advantage due to how the Browns’ secondary has played most of this year

Patriots ML and Under 45.5

Kyle’s Week 10 Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 at Washington Football Team

While traditionally I hate to target massive spreads especially with road teams but this is a great opportunity. Tampa Bay comes in with a bunch of question marks especially at WR but that shouldn’t matter here. Even if it’s just Tyler Johnson and Breshad Perriman catching passes from Tom Brady, the Buccaneers will cover this spread.

They enter this game off a bye and an outright loss to a division opponent. They will look to get right this week against a poor Washington team. A team getting a ton of credit for the team we saw last season and not the one we have seen this year. Their defense has taken a major step back after being a huge part of their success in 2020. They are currently 30th in Football Outsiders DVOA and 31st against the pass.

Their offense has also been letting them down despite seemingly being able to move the ball. They are 17th in offensive yards per drive but only 24th in points per drive. They rank 31st in red zone scoring percentage for TDs.  Failing to produce TDs has led to a 1-7 ATS record. They have scored 13 points or less in the last 3 weeks. If they cant even get to 14 against Tampa Bay they won’t be able to cover this number.

Pick: Buccaneers -9.5

San Francisco 49ers +4 vs Los Angeles Rams

The 49ers come into this game after getting embarrassed at home against a Colt McCoy led Cardinals offense. But they are in a prime position to bounce back against another divisional opponent.

The Rams on the other hand are buzzing despite losing to the Titans on Sunday Night Football after adding Odell Beckham and Von Miller before teh deadline.

Nobody is going to want to lineup to back this San Francisco team after their underwhelming performance. And yet this line is only 4 in favor of the road team. 

From a defensive standpoint the 49ers should be able to recreate much of what helped the Titans dominate a week ago. The offense will need to be better but another week for George Kittle and Elijah Mitchell along with an emerging Brandon Aiyuk should be able to produce for the home team.

Back the primetime home dog on the way to cover town.

Pick: 49ers +4

Dallas Cowboys -8 vs Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are getting a dose of reality this week as they head to Dallas. They are 4-4 with wins over the Dolphins, Giants, Jets and Saints who are a combined 13-22. Both New York teams and Miami are among the worst teams in the NFL this season.

Dallas on the other hand will look to rebound for an ugly loss to the Broncos. This is something I fully expect to see as Dak Prescott should re-enter the MVP conversation. He had been sidelined for 2 weeks before returning against Denver and clearly had some rust.  And unlike the Broncos, Atlanta won’t be able to utilize the power run game to keep the Cowboys offense on the sidelines.

This game will get ugly early and Dallas will roll. How this line is less than double-digits is wild to me. Back the home team in this spot.

Pick: Cowboys -8

Good luck in Week 10 and let’s cash some tickets.

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