Week 9 NFL Picks and Props

Week 9 NFL Picks and Props gives both Aaron and I a chance to get back on track after a 2-4 Week 8. Combined we are a very respectable 31-15-1 on the season.

Who knew Week 9 would see us go head to head with potentially the worst game on the board. The Texans and Dolphins have a combined 2 wins and are competing for the top overall pick in the draft. Beyond that we target a NFC West clash in San Francisco, a back up QB or potentially two.

As always we are constantly looking for value and opportunity at the betting window. Who do we like this week?

Kyle

Week: 1-2

Season: 15-7-1

Aaron

Week: 1-2

Season: 16-8

Aaron’s Week 8 Picks

Well, there you have it. My first losing week of the season. The Lions disappointed as usual, getting blown out by one of the few opponents they had a chance to beat this year. Swift put up a dud and Jared Goff continued to prove that he is a backup Quarterback at best.

The Seahawks manhandled the Jaguars (no surprise there) with Geno Smith as their quarterback. Jacksonville has some serious issues and are looking like they will be continuing to build for the future without making any strides forward.

Final pick was the Bengals -11, for the second straight week, and we all know how that game went. Mike White shocked the world, and the AFC’s 1st place team, by upsetting the Bengals. I’m not a Bengals fan, but this seriously disappointed me. I want them to be good/legit and I lost a lot of faith this week. They should compete with the Browns at home this week, but if they lose it’s not looking good for their magical breakout season.

Let’s go back to the drawing board this week and keep it simple. There are some games out there in which the better team isn’t getting the respect they deserve. 

Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles 

Another absurd line in the 2021 season. The 4-3 Chargers are coming off 2 straight losses (Patriots & Ravens) and will be desperate for a win and/or blowout here. The Eagles are coming off an emotional blowout of the worst team in football. Jalen Hurts is not a good quarterback and the team is being lead by Boston Scott and Jordan Howard.

The Chargers looked like a Top 3 team for the first 5 games of the year, defeating the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns in the process. After two straight (tough) losses, the public seems to be losing faith in Justin Herbert and Co. I am not. This is an amazing offense with a defense that begs you to run the ball and shut down the pass. All of Hurts production comes in garbage time, so when a defense actually tries to shut him down… they should smack the Eagles around and win this by >7 points. Take a look at the alternate lines – I’m confident up to -6.5 in this one.

Pick: Chargers -1.5

Miami Dolphins -6 vs. Houston Texans

I’m not calling Miami a “good team”, but they are clearly not as bad as Houston is. Tyrod Taylor’s return is imminent, but I don’t see it happening this week. With their bye next week, it just makes sense to rest him for 2 more weeks.

Houston has lost by an average of 23 points in their last 3 games. Remove the close game against a superior New England team and they have lost by an average of 22.5 points in their last 6 losses. Miami is starting to get healthy across the board and should start showing us why they were touted as a breakout team this year.

Pick: Dolphins -6

San Francisco 49ers -1.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

To be clear, this game does not follow my mantra of “the better team isn’t getting the respect they deserve”. This is about the health of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins going into this divisional matchup.

The 49ers lost by only a TD in Arizona earlier this year. If Kyler plays, he will most definitely be hobbled by the ankle injury that keeps most out 1-3 weeks. Kyler is a phenomenal player, but most of his talent lies in his mobility – the ability to get out of tough spots and make terrific throws on the run. He’s not your standard pocket passer, but that’s exactly what he will try to do if he plays this game.

The Niners are stuck in Win/Loss limbo and are competing in every game despite being 3-4, having their Top 5 pick Trey Lance waiting in the wings. For whatever reason, they are sticking with the $24M Jimmy G who is playing for his current, and future (somewhere else), job. The Niners losses have came at the hands of some of the best teams in the league. I’m taking the points here and hoping Kyler doesn’t even play making this an easy win.

Pick: 49ers -1.5

Kyle’s Week 8 Picks

Carolina Panthers +4 vs New England Patriots

I am a big fan of the Carolina Panthers in this spot getting 4 points at home. A big part of what seems to be plaguing Carolina has a lot to do with Christian McCaffery’s absence. All indications point to CMC playing this week which should fix a lot of what ails them. 

There is a potential that Sam Darnold misses this game but in the grand scheme of things the fall off to PJ Walker is minimal at best. Especially with the running game hopefully returning to form.

New England comes into this game after an impressive road win in Los Angeles against the Chargers. Now they have to travel again to face the Panthers.  

With two very average teams playing, I will happily back the home team getting points.

Pick: Panthers +4

Houston Texans +6 at Miami Dolphins

The Houston Texans head to Miami this week to take on a Dolphins team that has lost 7 in a row including failing to cover in 5 straight. Now they are going to be a favorite of almost a TD? What are we doing! 

The Dolphins have been favorites in 2 games this season and lost both on the field. Now their WR core is even more depleted as Devante Parker will miss this game.

On the Texans side, they will get Tyrod Taylor back under center. He adds a level of maturity that Houston has been lacking. He should allow the offense to poses the ball, help take some pressure off of the defense and keep the game well within the number. In fact, I wouldn’t fault anyone who looked at the Texans on the ML this week. Both of these teams stink, back the one getting the points.

Pick: Texans +6

Green Bay Packers +7.5 at the Kansas City Chiefs

We are heading into Week 9 talking about yet another get right spot for the Kansas City Chiefs. They have issues on both sides of the ball failing to look anything like the team who made 2 straight super bowl appearances.

In fact, they are just 4-4 on the season with 3 wins coming against the NFC Lease who are a combined 7-17. From a betting perspective its even worst as KC has only covered twice all season long.

On the other side will be a Green Bay Packers team that was a favorite until Aaron Rodgers was ruled out. Granted, the difference between he and Jordan Love or even Blake Bortles if we get there is massive. 

But 8 plus point swing seems like a lot. Did we not learn anything from Cooper Rush, Mike White and others.Obviously for the long term success of the team they need Rodgers back sooner than later but for one game with two reliable RBs against a putrid rush defense a cover is absolutely in play.

Back the road team to keep this one close and cover the number on the road.

Pick: Packers +7.5

Good look in Week 9!

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