The guys are back for another batch of ATS Picks and Props for NFL Week 8. Aaron is carrying the load with another 3-0 week while i ride the struggle bus to a 1-2 week. For this week I am back on my prop game with a couple QB rushing props as well as an ATS pick. Aaron on the other hand looks to stay hot as he offers up 3 ATS and hits you with another teaser for Week 8.
So who do we like?
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Aaron’s Week 8 Picks
Week 7 was another smashing success… including our first teaser in the article! My teaser of the Raiders +4.5, Dolphins +8, and Giants +8.5 won easily! I also recommended moving some of these down due to the lines, so props to you if you took that for the extra 20% winnings.
The Titans absolutely handled the Chiefs. I also called the under in that game due to the Titans improving defense… didn’t expect the Chiefs to score 3 points, but it goes without saying that the under hit easily.
Final pick was the Bengals +6 and we all know how that game went. I did say the Bengals could pull off the upset, so it was nice to see that come through and build up my ego even more this year.
We’re approaching fade territory with how hot we have been, but I think we’re just really in tune with the league, and the public, this year so let’s keep the hot streak going.
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Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
What an ugly game to be betting on here between two of the worst teams in the league. The Lions have to be looking at their ROS schedule and telling themselves “this is our win, boys”. Detroit has been close in a lot of games this year and they are truly battling for wins. After this week, the Lions appear to only have 2-3 more shots at wins this year (Bears on 11/25 and the Broncos/Falcons on 12/12 and 12/26).
The Eagles are down Miles Sanders for this game, and although he hasn’t lit the world on fire this year, they are down one of their few playmakers. Kenneth Gainwell has had a quietly good rookie season and I expect him to have a solid fantasy day, but this offense does all it’s work in the 2nd half / 4th quarter in garbage time. Swift should feast on this matchup and help make this a close game where I think the Lions win outright. Getting 3.5 is just way too juicy to pass up in case the Eagles win by a last second field goal.
Pick: Lions +3.5
Seattle -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I grabbed this game at -3 which I feel much better about, but I cannot get away from the Seahawks in their home environment. Geno Smith hasn’t lit the world on fire since taking over the reigns, but he has to step up this week to keep the Seahawks in playoff contention for Russel Wilson’s return. The Seahawks will be extremely motivated to blowout the Jaguars to prove they have what it takes to compete in their division and within the NFC this year.
My first main for the Seahawks here is Pete Carrol vs. Urban Meyer. When teams have severe coaching advantages at home, I treat it as an extra couple of points on the line. Secondly, this will be the toughest environment of Trevor Lawrences young career. He is used to playing at an extremely quiet, and warm, stadium in Jacksonville and travels West to one of the loudest stadiums in the league with the Legion of Boom crazies residing within it.
Pick: Seahawks -3.5
Cincinnati Bengals -11 @ New York Jets
I’m just going to leave the Bengals here as my #3 pick again this week. I’m finding it hard to find a solid 3rd game, so I’m going to go with the trend of new QB’s starting and getting absolutely destroyed by good teams. The Bengals are legit and yes, this is definitely a potential let down spot for them this week against a lowly Jets team.
Even with the large line and potential let down, the possibility of a 30-0 blowout seems very high when looking at this logically. The Bengals aren’t a team that has been good for years and has nothing to prove. This is their breakout. They want to prove to the world that they are for real – Zac Taylor has to be spouting this to his team all week and on gameday.
I think the team rallies here to continue to show the world they are legit contenders out of the AFC and absolutely roll the Jets.
Pick: Bengals -11
Kyle’s Week 8 Picks
Daniel Jones OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards
Daniel Jones rushing prop this week is incredibly appealing. He has already gone for 27 rushing yards in all but 2 games this season. The only two games where he did not go over were the game against the Cowboys where he got hurt and his first game back against the Rams where the Giants got crushed.
Jones also faces the Chiefs this week, a team that has been vulnerable to rushing QBs. While they haven’t been rushed in the last two weeks, giving up 47 or more rushing yards to opposing QBs in 3 of 4 weeks prior. Josh Allen went for 59 yards, Jalen Hurts had 47 yards and Lamar Jackson had 107 yards.
Jones will smash the over this week against the Chiefs.
Pick: OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins OVER 48.5
I love the Buffalo Bills this week and would happily back them -14 this week but for this pick I am going with the over. Since Josh Allen has taken over as the guy for the Bills, Buffalo has crushed Miami including 35-0 and 56-26. The return of Tua Tagovailoa has brought some life back to the Dolphins passing game. While I dont expect them to score the points required to keep it close, they can definitely do their part.
As for the Bills, they have scored at least 31 points in each of their last 5 contests averaging 37.4 PPG. They have also averaged 38 PPG against the Dolphins in their last 5 contests. If they can get to this number the Dolphins, who have regressed defensively especially in the secondary, they would need Miami to add 11 points which seems incredibly reasonable.
Pick: OVER 48.5
Patrick Mahomes OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards
We are closing my picks the same way we started with a QB rushing prop. We are going to take the over on 20.5 rushing yards for Patrick Mahomes. He has been smashing this number each of the past 5 weeks including 61 yards against the Bills averaging 39.6 yards per game over that span.
There has been a clear shift in the way defenders are playing the Chiefs giving Mahomes plenty of opportunities to rush with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman are no longer running as free in the secondary.
While this game could be a big game for the Chiefs offense there should still be plenty of opportunities for Mahomes to scramble for 21 or more yards.
Pick: Mahomes OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards