Monkey Knife Fight Week 4 NFL Picks

The 3-0 Las Vegas head to Los Angles to take on 2-1 Chargers. The Week 4 NFL Picks on Monkey Knife Fight takes a look at their Monday Night contest. We target the starting QBs in More or Less. Then we get ready to celebrate with the Touchdown Dance contest.

For those new to Monkey Knife Fight, it is a fun and easy way to play NFL DFS. Games like Rapid Fire and More or Less allow you to make quick picks and only compete against yourself. You can choose player props or fantasy points with each contest requiring you to pick 2 or more options much like a parlay. You can also add more picks for a chance at a bigger pay day!

If you haven’t given Monkey Knife Fight a try, click here or use our promo code “PIGSKIN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100 and a free $5 contest.

More or Less

With More or Less, players must select an over or under for two players. In this contest, we will target the starting quarterbacks picking More or Less for their passing yard totals. Let’s dig in!

Justin Herbert LESS than 305.5

Despite a spread of just 3 points and an Over/Under of 51 or so, I expect Justin Herbert to throw for LESS than 305.5 yards. It’s a bit of a scary proposition as the Raiders have yet to see a passing game like the one Los Angeles will display.  Jacoby Brissett and Lamar Jackson didn’t get close to this number against Las Vegas, but the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger did when he threw for 295 yards.

For me, this play is more about game script and expectation. The total is getting 87% of the money despite getting only 36% of the bets per Action Network. That tells me the money is expecting this game to stay under the total of 51 points. Now that doesn’t guarantee Herbert to throw for LESS than 305.5 passing yards but should be a good indicator.

If you believe the Chargers win a lower scoring game like I do, take LESS with Herbert.

Derek Carr LESS than 294.5

Despite how impressive Derek Carr has been to start the year, including throwing for 380 or more passing yards in each of his first 3 games, I will take LESS than 294.5 against the Chargers.

On the season, the Chargers defense is allowing 201 passing yards to opposing passers. That average includes games against Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott. 

How do you attack the Chargers defense? With the ground game. Antonio Gibson racked up 90 rushing yards in Week 1. This was followed up by Dallas rushing for 170 yards between Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Even Clyde Edwards-Helaire got of the schnide against Los Angeles rushing for 100 yards.

Jon Gruden doesn’t need an excuse to lean heavily on the run game but an effective one is the cheese this mouse needs. Even if Josh Jacobs can’t go, expect to see a heavy dose of Peyton Barber along with Kenyan Drake and Alec Ingold.

The under becomes even more attractive when you consider sportsbooks have set Carr’s passing yardage prop between 281.5 and 284.5, a full 10 yards below the line set bu MKF. Don’t get cute and go with LESS here!

Touchdown Dance

Darren Waller, Mike Williams and Peyton Barber

Touchdown Dance is a fun and unique way to play Monkey Knife Fight. For this contest, you need to select three players, at least one from each team, who you think can score a TD. You then need to decide if you want to go OVER 1.5, 2.5 or 3.5. 

For this contest I am going with Mike Williams, Darren Waller and Peyton Barber to go with 2.5 TDs. This contest will provide a 4X payout if you get 3 TDs or more with the trio of players.

For me, Mike Williams was the easy choice to start with. He has 4 TDs through through his first 3 games. His role has changed this season and Williams is finally becoming the player many thought he could be. He is currently around even money to score a TD against the Raiders this week.

My next choice was Darren Waller who is currently 4th in the league in targets despite only playing 3 games. He was also 16th prior to Monday Night in red zone targets with 7. I expect Waller to get plenty of volume and have a great chance to score at least 1 TD. Sportsbooks currently have Waller between +125 and +140 to score.

Lastly I chose Peyton Barber. He is currently +105 at Points Bet and +115 at FanDuel. There is some chatter that Josh Jacobs could see work tonight assuming he passes pregame tests. All this points to a limited role for Jacobs. A week ago Barber saw plenty of volume. If he sees anywhere near the 23 carries he saw a week ago he should have a great opportunity to score.

If you want to get a bit riskier you can look at the OVER 3.5 for a 6x payout. All 3 of these players have a legitimate shot at scoring multiple TDs themselves. 4 or more TDs is absolutely within the realm of possibility this week.

Remember to use promo code Pigskin for 100% match deposit up to $100 plus the free $5 game.

Good luck on Monday Night!


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