Week 1 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Levels

John Bush
September 10, 2021

Week 1 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Levels

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Week 1 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Levels focuses on my simple analysis of PPR rankings with uncertainity levels estimated for each player. My PPR rankings (FSPR) have been modified to a scaled 0 (worst) to 100 (best). I added colorization as well for visual impacts of red to green. The Uncertainity levels measure the range of outcomes within the ranking number. For, example a player with a 80 FSPR High Unc vs 80 FSPR Low Unc means the High Unc player has a higher chance of being a “failure” than that player with Low Unc. This meteric is a good tiebreaker for lineups and DFS plays.

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PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Video Lesson. I link in my video narrative of this article for deeper learning.

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PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Levels Table. This table is sortable and contains the following information

Team
Position
Player
—–
High UNC FSPR Ranking
AVG UNC FSPR Ranking
LOW UNC FSPR Ranking
—–
FSPR Ranking

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TEAM	POS	PLAYER NAME	HIGH UNC	AVG UNC	LOW UNC	Average of FSPR
ARI	DST	Arizona Cardinals		19		19
ARI	K	Matt Prater	67			67
ARI	QB	Kyler Murray			93	93
ARI	RB	Chase Edmonds		52		52
ARI	RB	Eno Benjamin	6			6
ARI	RB	James Conner	36			36
ARI	RB	Jonathan Ward			0	0
ARI	TE	Darrell Daniels		7		7
ARI	TE	Maxx Williams		12		12
ARI	WR	A.J. Green	35			35
ARI	WR	Andy Isabella	5			5
ARI	WR	Christian Kirk		32		32
ARI	WR	DeAndre Hopkins	93			93
ARI	WR	Rondale Moore			45	45
ATL	DST	Atlanta Falcons		30		30
ATL	K	Younghoe Koo			98	98
ATL	QB	Matt Ryan	74			74
ATL	RB	Mike Davis	67			67
ATL	RB	Wayne Gallman Jr.		13		13
ATL	TE	Hayden Hurst		27		27
ATL	TE	Kyle Pitts			65	65
ATL	WR	Calvin Ridley		97		97
ATL	WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	18			18
ATL	WR	Olamide Zaccheaus		22		22
ATL	WR	Russell Gage			48	48
ATL	WR	Tajae Sharpe	3			3
BAL	DST	Baltimore Ravens			54	54
BAL	K	Justin Tucker		100		100
BAL	QB	Lamar Jackson		97		97
BAL	RB	Latavis Murray	35			35
BAL	RB	Le'Veon Bell	25			25
BAL	RB	Treton Cannon	20			20
BAL	RB	Ty'Son Williams	59			59
BAL	TE	Josh Oliver			5	5
BAL	TE	Mark Andrews	73			73
BAL	TE	Nick Boyle			7	7
BAL	WR	Devin Duvernay	11			11
BAL	WR	Marquise Brown	50			50
BAL	WR	Sammy Watkins	36			36
BAL	WR	Tylan Wallace			9	9
BUF	DST	Buffalo Bills			49	49
BUF	K	Tyler Bass			74	74
BUF	QB	Josh Allen			90	90
BUF	RB	Devin Singletary	32			32
BUF	RB	Matt Breida	12			12
BUF	RB	Zack Moss		31		31
BUF	TE	Dawson Knox		31		31
BUF	WR	Cole Beasley			43	43
BUF	WR	Emmanuel Sanders		42		42
BUF	WR	Gabriel Davis			34	34
BUF	WR	Isaiah McKenzie			15	15
BUF	WR	Stefon Diggs			93	93
CAR	DST	Carolina Panthers			43	43
CAR	K	Ryan Santoso			36	36
CAR	QB	Sam Darnold	68			68
CAR	RB	Christian McCaffrey			100	100
CAR	RB	Chuba Hubbard			16	16
CAR	RB	Royce Freeman	3			3
CAR	TE	Dan Arnold			25	25
CAR	TE	Ian Thomas	13			13
CAR	TE	Tommy Tremble			0	0
CAR	WR	Brandon Zylstra	2			2
CAR	WR	D.J. Moore	73			73
CAR	WR	Robby Anderson	70			70
CAR	WR	Terrace Marshall Jr.			40	40
CHI	DST	Chicago Bears		22		22
CHI	K	Cairo Santos			24	24
CHI	QB	Andy Dalton	45			45
CHI	QB	Justin Fields			5	5
CHI	RB	Damien Williams			20	20
CHI	RB	David Montgomery			64	64
CHI	RB	Khalil Herbert			4	4
CHI	TE	Cole Kmet		33		33
CHI	TE	Jimmy Graham			23	23
CHI	WR	Allen Robinson II	73			73
CHI	WR	Breshad Perriman	11			11
CHI	WR	Damiere Byrd	13			13
CHI	WR	Darnell Mooney			46	46
CHI	WR	Marquise Goodwin			7	7
CIN	DST	Cincinnati Bengals	8			8
CIN	K	Evan McPherson			31	31
CIN	QB	Joe Burrow		73		73
CIN	RB	Chris Evans			5	5
CIN	RB	Joe Mixon		80		80
CIN	RB	Samaje Perine			13	13
CIN	TE	C.J. Uzomah			18	18
CIN	TE	Drew Sample	14			14
CIN	WR	Auden Tate	14			14
CIN	WR	Ja'Marr Chase			56	56
CIN	WR	Tee Higgins			71	71
CIN	WR	Tyler Boyd	70			70
CLE	DST	Cleveland Browns		8		8
CLE	K	Chase McLaughlin	24			24
CLE	QB	Baker Mayfield		70		70
CLE	RB	D'Ernest Johnson	0			0
CLE	RB	Kareem Hunt		53		53
CLE	RB	Nick Chubb			70	70
CLE	TE	Austin Hooper		39		39
CLE	TE	David Njoku		16		16
CLE	TE	Harrison Bryant		10		10
CLE	WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones		26		26
CLE	WR	Jarvis Landry		51		51
CLE	WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	63			63
CLE	WR	Rashard Higgins			19	19
DAL	DST	Dallas Cowboys	3			3
DAL	K	Greg Zuerlein			52	52
DAL	QB	Dak Prescott			78	78
DAL	RB	Ezekiel Elliott	68			68
DAL	RB	Tony Pollard		26		26
DAL	TE	Blake Jarwin	32			32
DAL	TE	Dalton Schultz			19	19
DAL	WR	Amari Cooper	73			73
DAL	WR	Cedrick Wilson		2		2
DAL	WR	CeeDee Lamb			74	74
DAL	WR	Michael Gallup		49		49
DEN	DST	Denver Broncos		65		65
DEN	K	Brandon McManus			57	57
DEN	QB	Drew Lock		0		0
DEN	QB	Teddy Bridgewater		62		62
DEN	RB	Javonte Williams			43	43
DEN	RB	Melvin Gordon III		49		49
DEN	TE	Albert Okwuegbunam			16	16
DEN	TE	Noah Fant	56			56
DEN	WR	Courtland Sutton	55			55
DEN	WR	Jerry Jeudy	61			61
DEN	WR	KJ Hamler		30		30
DEN	WR	Tim Patrick			19	19
DET	DST	Detroit Lions	3			3
DET	K	Austin Seibert	5			5
DET	QB	Jared Goff	54			54
DET	RB	D'Andre Swift			63	63
DET	RB	Jamaal Williams		37		37
DET	RB	Jermar Jefferson			4	4
DET	TE	Darren Fells	6			6
DET	TE	T.J. Hockenson	63			63
DET	WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown			33	33
DET	WR	Kalif Raymond	16			16
DET	WR	Quintez Cephus		29		29
DET	WR	Tyrell Williams			35	35
GB	DST	Green Bay Packers		41		41
GB	K	Mason Crosby	67			67
GB	QB	Aaron Rodgers			84	84
GB	RB	Aaron Jones		81		81
GB	RB	AJ Dillon		31		31
GB	RB	Kylin Hill			2	2
GB	TE	Robert Tonyan			49	49
GB	WR	Allen Lazard		28		28
GB	WR	Amari Rodgers			15	15
GB	WR	Davante Adams			100	100
GB	WR	Marquez Valdes-Scantling		32		32
GB	WR	Randall Cobb			32	32
HOU	DST	Houston Texans	19			19
HOU	K	Joey Slye		0		0
HOU	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn		33		33
HOU	QB	Tyrod Taylor	61			61
HOU	RB	David Johnson		32		32
HOU	RB	Mark Ingram II	20			20
HOU	RB	Phillip Lindsay	25			25
HOU	RB	Rex Burkhead			11	11
HOU	TE	Brevin Jordan			7	7
HOU	TE	Jordan Akins	22			22
HOU	TE	Pharaoh Brown			11	11
HOU	WR	Anthony Miller	20			20
HOU	WR	Brandin Cooks			59	59
HOU	WR	Chris Conley		18		18
HOU	WR	Nico Collins			32	32
IND	DST	Indianapolis Colts			38	38
IND	K	Rodrigo Blankenship		67		67
IND	QB	Carson Wentz		62		62
IND	RB	Jonathan Taylor			75	75
IND	RB	Jordan Wilkins		4		4
IND	RB	Marlon Mack	16			16
IND	RB	Nyheim Hines			46	46
IND	TE	Jack Doyle		23		23
IND	TE	Kylen Granson			11	11
IND	TE	Mo Alie-Cox		17		17
IND	WR	Ashton Dulin	1			1
IND	WR	Keke Coutee		14		14
IND	WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	51			51
IND	WR	Mike Strachan			11	11
IND	WR	Parris Campbell	37			37
IND	WR	Zach Pascal			31	31
JAC	DST	Jacksonville Jaguars	35			35
JAC	K	Josh Lambo		48		48
JAC	QB	Trevor Lawrence			75	75
JAC	RB	Carlos Hyde			22	22
JAC	RB	Dare Ogunbowale	7			7
JAC	RB	Devine Ozigbo	3			3
JAC	RB	Duke Johnson Jr.	4			4
JAC	RB	James Robinson			74	74
JAC	TE	Chris Manhertz	3			3
JAC	TE	Jacob Hollister			4	4
JAC	TE	James O'Shaughnessy		12		12
JAC	TE	Luke Farrell			0	0
JAC	WR	D.J. Chark Jr.	54			54
JAC	WR	Jamal Agnew	5			5
JAC	WR	Laviska Shenault Jr.		63		63
JAC	WR	Marvin Jones Jr.		51		51
JAC	WR	Tyron Johnson			11	11
KC	DST	Kansas City Chiefs		30		30
KC	K	Harrison Butker	98			98
KC	QB	Patrick Mahomes II		100		100
KC	RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	68			68
KC	RB	Darrel Williams		18		18
KC	RB	Jerick McKinnon	14			14
KC	TE	Blake Bell	1			1
KC	TE	Noah Gray			2	2
KC	TE	Travis Kelce			100	100
KC	WR	Byron Pringle			22	22
KC	WR	Demarcus Robinson		28		28
KC	WR	Marcus Kemp		0		0
KC	WR	Mecole Hardman		42		42
KC	WR	Tyreek Hill			100	100
LAC	DST	Los Angeles Chargers	51			51
LAC	K	Tristan Vizcaino			33	33
LAC	QB	Justin Herbert			76	76
LAC	RB	Austin Ekeler	79			79
LAC	RB	Joshua Kelley	17			17
LAC	RB	Justin Jackson		14		14
LAC	RB	Larry Rountree III			13	13
LAC	TE	Donald Parham Jr.		14		14
LAC	TE	Jared Cook	34			34
LAC	WR	Jalen Guyton		7		7
LAC	WR	Josh Palmer			24	24
LAC	WR	K.J. Hill Jr.	0			0
LAC	WR	Keenan Allen	83			83
LAC	WR	Mike Williams	47			47
LAR	DST	Los Angeles Rams			81	81
LAR	K	Matt Gay			69	69
LAR	QB	Matthew Stafford	77			77
LAR	RB	Darrell Henderson		57		57
LAR	RB	Jake Funk			12	12
LAR	RB	Sony Michel		24		24
LAR	TE	Brycen Hopkins	1			1
LAR	TE	Jacob Harris			4	4
LAR	TE	Tyler Higbee		47		47
LAR	WR	Cooper Kupp	77			77
LAR	WR	DeSean Jackson	30			30
LAR	WR	Robert Woods	81			81
LAR	WR	Tutu Atwell			9	9
LAR	WR	Van Jefferson	27			27
LV	DST	Las Vegas Raiders	0			0
LV	K	Daniel Carlson			43	43
LV	QB	Derek Carr		65		65
LV	RB	Josh Jacobs	58			58
LV	RB	Kenyan Drake		34		34
LV	RB	Peyton Barber		0		0
LV	TE	Darren Waller			93	93
LV	TE	Foster Moreau		10		10
LV	WR	Bryan Edwards	39			39
LV	WR	Henry Ruggs III	39			39
LV	WR	Hunter Renfrow	33			33
LV	WR	Willie Snead IV		4		4
LV	WR	Zay Jones	10			10
MIA	DST	Miami Dolphins			32	32
MIA	K	Jason Sanders			64	64
MIA	QB	Tua Tagovailoa	65			65
MIA	RB	Malcolm Brown	18			18
MIA	RB	Myles Gaskin			60	60
MIA	RB	Salvon Ahmed			21	21
MIA	TE	Durham Smythe			6	6
MIA	TE	Hunter Long			3	3
MIA	TE	Mike Gesicki			41	41
MIA	WR	Albert Wilson			20	20
MIA	WR	DeVante Parker	47			47
MIA	WR	Jakeem Grant Sr.		4		4
MIA	WR	Jaylen Waddle			47	47
MIA	WR	Preston Williams		17		17
MIN	DST	Minnesota Vikings	35			35
MIN	K	Greg Joseph			36	36
MIN	QB	Kirk Cousins			71	71
MIN	RB	Alexander Mattison		24		24
MIN	RB	Dalvin Cook			94	94
MIN	TE	Chris Herndon IV	20			20
MIN	TE	Tyler Conklin			25	25
MIN	WR	Adam Thielen		74		74
MIN	WR	Ihmir Smith-Marsette			4	4
MIN	WR	Justin Jefferson			86	86
MIN	WR	K.J. Osborn		11		11
NE	DST	New England Patriots		59		59
NE	K	Quinn Nordin			26	26
NE	QB	Mac Jones			56	56
NE	RB	Damien Harris		53		53
NE	RB	J.J. Taylor	3			3
NE	RB	James White	32			32
NE	RB	Rhamondre Stevenson			18	18
NE	TE	Devin Asiasi	1			1
NE	TE	Hunter Henry	36			36
NE	TE	Jonnu Smith	45			45
NE	WR	Gunner Olszewski		3		3
NE	WR	Jakobi Meyers		49		49
NE	WR	Kendrick Bourne		27		27
NE	WR	Nelson Agholor			39	39
NO	DST	New Orleans Saints			19	19
NO	QB	Jameis Winston	67			67
NO	QB	Taysom Hill			25	25
NO	RB	Alvin Kamara			93	93
NO	RB	Dwayne Washington		1		1
NO	RB	Tony Jones Jr.	47			47
NO	RB	Ty Montgomery	4			4
NO	TE	Adam Trautman		23		23
NO	TE	Juwan Johnson	19			19
NO	WR	Deonte Harris		17		17
NO	WR	Lil'Jordan Humphrey		6		6
NO	WR	Marquez Callaway		50		50
NO	WR	Tre'Quan Smith	39			39
NYG	DST	New York Giants		27		27
NYG	K	Graham Gano		38		38
NYG	QB	Daniel Jones	60			60
NYG	RB	Devontae Booker		18		18
NYG	RB	Gary Brightwell			2	2
NYG	RB	Saquon Barkley	71			71
NYG	TE	Evan Engram	19			19
NYG	TE	Kaden Smith	9			9
NYG	TE	Kyle Rudolph	25			25
NYG	WR	Darius Slayton	35			35
NYG	WR	Kadarius Toney			17	17
NYG	WR	Kenny Golladay	49			49
NYG	WR	Sterling Shepard		49		49
NYJ	DST	New York Jets	24			24
NYJ	K	Matt Ammendola			12	12
NYJ	QB	Zach Wilson			63	63
NYJ	RB	La'Mical Perine	10			10
NYJ	RB	Michael Carter			28	28
NYJ	RB	Tevin Coleman	30			30
NYJ	RB	Ty Johnson		21		21
NYJ	TE	Tyler Kroft		18		18
NYJ	WR	Corey Davis			57	57
NYJ	WR	Denzel Mims	17			17
NYJ	WR	Elijah Moore			47	47
NYJ	WR	Jamison Crowder			31	31
NYJ	WR	Keelan Cole Sr.		27		27
PHI	DST	Philadelphia Eagles		27		27
PHI	K	Jake Elliott	40			40
PHI	QB	Jalen Hurts			82	82
PHI	RB	Boston Scott	18			18
PHI	RB	Jordan Howard	3			3
PHI	RB	Kenneth Gainwell			18	18
PHI	RB	Miles Sanders	63			63
PHI	TE	Dallas Goedert	54			54
PHI	TE	Zach Ertz	34			34
PHI	WR	DeVonta Smith			56	56
PHI	WR	Greg Ward			12	12
PHI	WR	Jalen Reagor	36			36
PHI	WR	Quez Watkins			28	28
PHI	WR	Travis Fulgham		7		7
PIT	DST	Pittsburgh Steelers			27	27
PIT	K	Chris Boswell	26			26
PIT	QB	Ben Roethlisberger		66		66
PIT	RB	Benny Snell Jr.		13		13
PIT	RB	Kalen Ballage			9	9
PIT	RB	Najee Harris			75	75
PIT	TE	Eric Ebron		32		32
PIT	TE	Pat Freiermuth			13	13
PIT	WR	Chase Claypool			57	57
PIT	WR	Diontae Johnson		72		72
PIT	WR	James Washington		20		20
PIT	WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster		64		64
SEA	DST	Seattle Seahawks		35		35
SEA	K	Jason Myers		67		67
SEA	QB	Russell Wilson		79		79
SEA	RB	Alex Collins			9	9
SEA	RB	Chris Carson		67		67
SEA	RB	DeeJay Dallas		6		6
SEA	RB	Rashaad Penny	20			20
SEA	RB	Travis Homer		4		4
SEA	TE	Gerald Everett			38	38
SEA	TE	Will Dissly		13		13
SEA	WR	D.K. Metcalf		84		84
SEA	WR	D'Wayne Eskridge			23	23
SEA	WR	Freddie Swain	9			9
SEA	WR	Tyler Lockett	77			77
SF	DST	San Francisco 49ers		100		100
SF	K	Robbie Gould	76			76
SF	QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	67			67
SF	QB	Trey Lance			20	20
SF	RB	Elijah Mitchell			3	3
SF	RB	JaMycal Hasty	3			3
SF	RB	Kyle Juszczyk			9	9
SF	RB	Raheem Mostert	62			62
SF	RB	Trey Sermon			39	39
SF	TE	George Kittle		83		83
SF	TE	Ross Dwelley		3		3
SF	WR	Brandon Aiyuk			72	72
SF	WR	Deebo Samuel	68			68
SF	WR	Mohamed Sanu		12		12
SF	WR	Trent Sherfield		6		6
TB	DST	Tampa Bay Buccaneers			54	54
TB	K	Ryan Succop		74		74
TB	QB	Tom Brady			87	87
TB	RB	Giovani Bernard		27		27
TB	RB	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	6			6
TB	RB	Leonard Fournette		38		38
TB	RB	Ronald Jones II		49		49
TB	TE	Cameron Brate			10	10
TB	TE	O.J. Howard			23	23
TB	TE	Rob Gronkowski		37		37
TB	WR	Antonio Brown			67	67
TB	WR	Chris Godwin		78		78
TB	WR	Mike Evans			74	74
TB	WR	Scotty Miller		16		16
TB	WR	Tyler Johnson		11		11
TEN	DST	Tennessee Titans	22			22
TEN	K	Sam Ficken	50			50
TEN	QB	Ryan Tannehill			81	81
TEN	RB	Derrick Henry			82	82
TEN	RB	Javian Hawkins			4	4
TEN	RB	Jeremy McNichols		3		3
TEN	RB	Mekhi Sargent			1	1
TEN	TE	Anthony Firkser	34			34
TEN	TE	Geoff Swaim			10	10
TEN	WR	A.J. Brown			86	86
TEN	WR	Chester Rogers			5	5
TEN	WR	Josh Reynolds		28		28
TEN	WR	Julio Jones	80			80
WAS	DST	Washington Football Team			57	57
WAS	K	Dustin Hopkins		38		38
WAS	QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick		69		69
WAS	RB	Antonio Gibson		69		69
WAS	RB	J.D. McKissic			31	31
WAS	RB	Jaret Patterson			6	6
WAS	TE	Logan Thomas			58	58
WAS	WR	Adam Humphries		18		18
WAS	WR	Cam Sims			6	6
WAS	WR	Curtis Samuel			46	46
WAS	WR	Dyami Brown			16	16
WAS	WR	Terry McLaurin	83			83

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This figure presents the tabular meterics and bargraph of all 32 NFL Teams “Power Scores” based on my match-ups, uncertainity rankings, and PPR rankings. Green teams are the strongest while red are the weakest teams for this week.

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This table presents each team’s players by their UNC levels of High, AVG, or Low as well as total players ranked from that team this week. The ratio of High and Avg vs Low UNC players is also shown ((H+A+)/L. The highest numbers represent high uncertaianity teams while the low numbers are of the low UNC teams.

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The bargraph of the UNC counts and Ratio Levels by team. The Left RED teams have week1 high UNC vs. Right Green teams has low UNC. Use for tiebreaking and DFS cash and tournment plays for week 1.

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These following tables are positional based week 1 FSPR Rankings with their UNC levels highlighted. Use in the context of your descsions needed. These are just parts of the puzzle.