Time to Shine or Ride the Pine: Week 14 Start or Sit

Well that was interesting. Week 13 gave us the Steelers first loss and the Jets first vict… LOL! almost. The Browns flexed their might in Nashville, the Giants entered the playoff picture, and Josh Allen reemerged as an MVP candidate.

Despite Mitchell Trubisky, David Montgomery found the end zone twice. The Raiders pulled the Rugg(s) out from under the Jets with a hail mary. Tyler Boyd scored but it was his only catch, and I promise, I won’t bad mouth Wayne Gallman again. As we’ve reached the fantasy playoffs, I hope I’ve helped along the way and look forward to getting us one step closer to the trophy. Here is week 14 start or sit!

Time to Shine

Collin Johnson (Ten@Jax 1pm est)

Hook em Horns! The former Texas standout has been a revelation for the Jags over the last 2 weeks. Since Mike Glennon has taken over at QB, it has been Johnson that has benefited most. He is 2nd with 14 targets, and leads team with 8 receptions for 162 yards. He is also averaging a beautiful 11 yards/target. Johnson and Glennon now face Tennessee who just let Baker Mayfield torch them for 4 td’s in the first half. On the season they’ve allowed 196 receptions (31st), 2278 yards (28th), and 34.6 fpts/gm (28th). Johnson will have plenty of chances to produce big against this terrible Titans pass defense.

Prediction: 5 rec 91 yards 1 TD: 17.6 pts

Michael Pittman (Ind@LV 4:05pm est)

Since week 9, Pittman has played over 80% of the snaps in every game. He has also played the most snaps of all Colts WR’s in 4 straight. Michael also leads the team in targets in 3 of the last 5 games. When Indy has to pass, he is option 1B at worst and they’ll do just that in week 14. 

The Colts face off against the Raiders who just allowed 2 TD’s to Jets receivers which continued their poor play. They have given up a score in 8 of 9, and 5 straight games to the position. The Las Vegas defense is just bad, as they’re giving up 30 pts/gm in 2020 and are bottom 10 in overall pass defense. Indianapolis will find success through the air, with Michael Pittman having his way against the less than stellar Raiders db’s.

Prediction: 5 rec 84 yards 1 TD: 16.9 pts

Todd Gurley (Atl@LAC 4:25pm est)

The former fantasy superstar was having a surprisingly good 2020 over his first 9 games in Atlanta. Gurley was 5th in the NFL with 584 rushing yards to go along with 9 total touchdowns. Since that nice start, he has totaled just 16 carries for 42 yards over his last 2 games while also missing week 12 with knee issues. His recent lack of success doesn’t exactly breed confidence going into the fantasy playoffs, but his week 14 opponent does.

TG3’s next matchup is against the Chargers who have been the 2nd worst defense vs. RB’s since week 4. LA is allowing 5.15 ypc and a total of 1019 yards to RB’s over that span. They have either surrendered 100+ yards or 1 touchdown in 7 straight and in 8 of their last 9 games. Overall they’re D is giving up 32 pts/gm over their last 9 games. That bad defense is a beautiful sight for Gurley. He saw all 4 of Atlanta’s carries in the red zone last week, and should get a handful of chances this week. He may not be the Gurley of old but Todd is set up to succeed in week 14.

Prediction: 14 car 53 yards 1 TD, 1 rec 4 yards: 12.2 pts

KYLE TERADA/USA TODAY SPORTS

Ride the Pine

DeVante Parker (KC@Mia 1pm est)

DeVante resurrected his career last season finishing with 72 catches, 1200 yards and 9 touchdowns. He began 2020 with 4 straight games of 4+ receptions and 5 straight with 47 or more yards. He has also been the clear in terms of targets, leading the team with 87, and 25 more than Mike Gesicki. Parker has been held back by a decrease in touchdowns to just 4 through 12 games. Finding the End Zone won’t be any easier this week against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Both Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward have fared well against opposing wide-outs limiting them to less than 10 yards/catch and just over a 55% catch rate respectively. If Miami is forced to throw here it only means bad things for the Dolphins so look for them to exploit KC’s weakness against the rush. Parker will still see a decent amount of looks, but success from them may be limited.

Prediction: 5 rec 56 yards: 8.1 pts

Broncos RB’s (Den@Car 1pm est)

Both Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay have been seeing enough work to warrant flex consideration. They’re both averaging over 12 carries the last 3-4 games with Gordon reaching 15 twice in that span. Last week saw the latter reach a season high 131 yards rushing but over half came on one 65 yard burst. Each other’s presence has and will continue to limit their individual production and this week’s game garners even more worry.

The Broncos are visiting Carolina in week 14, and the Panthers have been surprisingly good against the RB position lately. Over their last 5 games, Carolina has allowed just 3 total touchdowns. Minus a 98 yard explosion by Ronald Jones, they’re also allowing just 70 yds/gm. RB’s have also been shut down receiving against the Panthers recently. They’ve given up just 16 catches for 86 yards (3 rec 17 yds/gm) over their last 5 contests. With Gordon and Lindsay combining for just 3 scores over the last 6 games, any plans of advancing in the fantasy playoffs do not include the Broncos backfield.

Prediction: Neither over 60 rush or 30 receiving yards with ZERO TD’s

Miles Sanders (NO@Phi 4:25pm est)

Any hopes of Sanders getting a real three down workload were all but crushed after he was injured on a season long 74 yard rush against Baltimore. Prior to the injury, he was seeing around 80% of the team’s snaps and averaging around 18 touches per game. Philly has since added former starter Jordan Howard to go along with Boston Scott, and both figure to see ample snaps suited to their strengths. If dealing with touch thiefs isn’t enough, Miles and the Eagles now play the NFL’s best defense against RB’s.

New Orleans has seen it’s defense rise from the ashes since week 5. Over this time, the Saints haven’t allowed a single touchdown, and are surrendering just 10.2 fpts/gm to the position. The fantasy playoffs isn’t the time to be contrarian especially with rookie Jalen Hurts making his first start. Stay Miles away from Sanders in week 14 for any hopes of winning.

Prediction: 12 car 36 yards, 3 rec 18 yards: 6.9 pts

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: