Week 11 Targets and Touches

 

Week 11 Targets and Touches

Week 11 Targets and Touches. My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

  • Snaps per Second of Offensive Possession. See Below
  • Snaps Report for this Week
  • Targets and Touches
  • Vegas Over-Under Lines
  • Defense Against the Position
  • My Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. (Coming Saturday)

We must deal with decisions under uncertainty in fantasy football.

**A range of potential futures can be identified at level three uncertainty. A limited number of key variables (See Above) define that range, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere within it. There are no natural discrete scenarios.

** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty#

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Weeks 6 to 11 Team Target Averages 

Week 11 Targets and Touches. I always begin in a top-down approach, and, n this case, I focus on the top target generating teams. Clear value in PPR scoring! 

Additionally, I scaled the team target averages to the league average. How does each team stack-up to the league average?

Firstly, I colored the top teams with Green colorization. LAR/PIT/CIN/LAC/CHI/WAS/DEN/DAL/TB/BUF/HOU are the top targeting teams.

Secondly, I note LV/MIA/BAL/CLE/TEN/NYG/NO/MIN/IND/NYJ/DET/NE are the lower targeting teams.

Move to the deeper WRs in the top teams and avoid fringe pass-catcher in the lower targeting teams. 

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Bar Graph of Team Scaled Target Averages Weeks 6 to 11 Differences

Week 11 Targets and Touches. The visual view of the team targets is shown below.  Visual views seem to stay with me more than columns of numbers. I focus for our information the differences. 

To begin, team targeting activity (Late vs Early) is compared weeks 9th to 11th vs weeks 6th to 8th. I like to move toward teams that are improving vs declining (green vs red bars).

Next, what has been going in last 2 games that teams played (2 WK Diffs).

The teams that have double improved recently are BUF/CAR/NE

Additionally, consider why? What is going on in the top and bottom teams? Game Scripts etc. and is there a change this week? 

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I noted the left hand vs right hand teams as to targeting. I also noted the improving vs declining teams. Move toward the improving teams. 

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Target Efficiency Weeks 6 to 11

The Metrics are shown in the table below, which contains: 

Team Name with High/Low Designations by color: 

  • Weekly Average of Team Target Efficiency. High to Low-Blue to Red
  • Total Average of Targeting Efficiency – Targets per Second. 
  • Late vs Early Differences
  • 2 Weeks Differences

Firstly, the top target efficiency teams-green stained- are TB/DEN/JAX/LAR/CHI/PHI/PIT/DET.  These teams use their targets well. 

Secondly, the lower efficiency teams are LV/BAL/NO/ATL/MIA/NYG/CLE. Caution

Finally, the improving teams have a high LATE/EARLY DIFFs and 2 WEEKs DIFFs. TB seem to be improving even losing? BUF also had a double positive DIFFs. NO/IND/SEA/DAL are the double declining by differences

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Visual Landscapes of Targets and Efficiency

I begin with establishing the high vs low team efficiencies. Left vs Right hand of the Bar Graph. TB/BUF are the double positives vs NO/IND/DAL.

Additionally, I also see JAX/LAR/MIN/TEN/ATL seem to be moving to the negatives.  

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Summary Team Target Average vs Efficiency with Annotation

I give you a nice colorful view of the teams.

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HIGH/HIGH TEAMS

I note the High/High Teams PIT/LAR/CHI/DEN – green X. Also the first section notes teams with a single high level or either targets or efficiency. 

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Average/Average Teams

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Low/Low Teams Caution

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Team Positional Player Week 6 to 11 Targets, Target Averages, and DIFFs

Week 11 Targets and Touches. I next drill down into these metrics within each Team. Fantasy Football is a weekly Team based game!

Secondly, I added the player usages within their teams for the “pecking order” and DIFFs to catch improving or declining players. 

These sorted tables contain:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Targets Week  6 to 11                         ( High to Low – Green to Red)
  • Target Averages                                   ( High to Low – Blue to Red)
  • Late vs. Early DIFFs                            (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)
  • 2 Weeks DIFFs                                       (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)

I like to use these metrics as a reference in the context of Vegas and DAPs. Is the pecking order real? Is the production real, and will be replicated this week? Find the unusual and extreme. 

My Week 12 Rankings coming, FYI. 

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Visual Analysis of Team Targets 

Learning Through Visuals | Psychology Today

A large body of research indicates that visual cues help us to better retrieve and remember information …. Words are abstract and rather difficult for the brain to retain, whereas visuals are concrete and, as such, more easily remembered.

FYI-The reason I add colorization to my number tables to help visual learning. 

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These visuals include:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Target Averages WK 6 to 11

My Process would be to slow scan each and note extremes. Then focus and consider for week 12 DFS and lineups. 

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Running Back Touches with % Rushing vs. Receiving (ATTs vs. Targets)

Week 11 Targets and Touches.  RBs are the most difficult position in fantasy football to calculate because they both rush and catch. That fact then opens more possibilities within the game. Therefore, we must consider that extra dimension for RBs, especially in PPR leagues. 

The easy RB to figure is one that does both catch and rush. The harder RBs are the pass-catcher only types as they are game script dependent. Thus if you have a pass-catcher RB (i.e., Edmonds 71% catching), you must consider the way that game might go. See Vegas and DAPs as a foundation for your thinking. 

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Team Level RB Rushing Attempts vs. Targets with Rush/Pass Ratios

Week 11 Targets and Touches.  We must understand the nature of each team towards its use of RBs in rushing and passing.

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Week 6 to 11 RB Rushing Attempts, Averages, 2 Week Differences

All Rushing Teams Stained GREEN – DAL/ARI/CLE/JAC/TB/DEN/MIN

Opposite Teams – Lower Rushing. PIT (Connor?)/CAR (Injury CMC)/SF (Parade of Injuries)/NYG (Injury)/KC (Why?)/NE(?)/SEA (Injury?)

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Week 6 to 11 RB Passing Targets, Averages, and 2 Week Differences

All Pass-Catching Teams Stained Blue WAS/NO/JAC/TB/LAC/ARI/CHI/GB/IND

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TEAM RB Rush/Target Ratios

Firstly, I calculated each Team’s Rush/Pass Ratio and Sorted all teams by that metric. Next, I note extreme in RB ratios. I highlighted the extremes using RRR vs. TTT. Finally, use these metrics for actionable data for Week 12 DFS.

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Green vs Red Colorization 

TEAM RB Targets Differences Last 2 Weeks

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TEAM RB Rushing Differences Last 2 Weeks

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Team Level Rushing Attempts vs Targets with Averages Tables/Bar Graphs 

It is important to determine each RBs activity in rushing vs. pass-catching. Observing the trends is essential for considering this week’s performance. I would stroll through to get a sense of the trends. 

These tables contain:

  • 4 Teams

  • RB Players

  • Rush ATTs Weeks 6 to 11

  • Targets Weeks 6 to 11

  • Obvious Players are shown as Rushers or Pass-catchers or Both. 

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Final Process

I go through all these data tables by asking questions and determining the answers. Each Player must be addressed.

Time intensive for sure. If you want it on a platter you are not reading this then. Its ok because I do these articles for me as well as my readers. It makes me do the work. I tell my students chop the wood then you get the fire not get the fire first then someone produces the wood? 

I consider the level of committee work in thinking about this week’s games. What is going to change? New Faces or New Levels of Activity?

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Week 11 Targets and Touches.

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