DK is offering a mini 3-game slate for the Thursday games. Houston currently projects as the highest scoring offense here with a 27.25 implied total. This game is where we will look to game stack and piece together players from the other games to fill out our lineups. I know most of this article is focused on chalk, but I do like differentiating WR around these plays I’ve laid out for you here. I hope everyone has a nice Thanksgiving however you spend it and hopefully we have a nice little sweat from the games too. Let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
QB
Deshaun Watson, $7400 Houston Texans
45.5% projected ownership
Watson looks to be the “chalkiest” QB on this small slate of games. I’ll eat the chalk here, given the high implied total of the Texans. Although the Lions have been a run funnel defense this season, ranking dead last in FPts allowed to opposing rushers, the Texans have been equally as bad in FPts earned to the position (31st ranked). Something must break here and I believe Watson will continue to lead the offense through the air. Watson ranks 6th in passing yards (2883), 9th in passing TD (20) and 2nd in Y/C (yards/completion 12.4.) Pair him up with Brandin Cooks and pass me the gravy.
RB
D’andre Swift, $6500, Detroit Lions
52.8% projected ownership
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Swift has looked good when given the chance for the Lions. Coming off an impressive 25.9 DKPt outing against a stingy Washington rush defense, Swift unfortunately missed Week 11 with a concussion. Having been a DNP on Monday, Swift was able to return for Tuesdays walkthrough as a limited participant. If he’s cleared by the team’s neurologist to go, he has a high ceiling in this matchup. The Texans rank 31st in rush DVOA according to Football Outsiders. This is clear given the fact that the Texans have allowed the most rushing attempts (315) and rushing yards (1593.) According to PlayerProfiler.com, Swift accounts for 38.3% of Detroit’s Red Zone Opportunity Share.
Chalk RB:
Zeke, Conner, Duke Johnson
WR
Brandin Cooks, $5300, Houston Texans
49.1% projected ownership
So yeah, there’s not a whole lot of ways of getting around chalk on such a small slate, but in situations like this, I will match the field. Given the reasons I laid out on my reasons for playing the Watson chalk, I will want to pair him with Cooks here. Although he is viewed as a 1B in the Texans’ offense, the difference is closer than you might think. Cooks accounts for 25.3% of the teams Air Yards (Fuller 30.9%), 22.3% target share (Fuller 20.7%) and Red Zone Target % (15.6) (Fuller 17.8%.) I do like the double stack here but also like the $900 saving as well.
Also Consider:
Diontae Johnson, Lamb, Marvin Jones, Terry
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TE:
Mark Andrews, $5200, Baltimore Ravens
34.5% projected ownership
Andrews is cheap and has the highest ceiling of any other player at the position. He is currently listed as questionable, but got in a limited practice in Tuesday’s walkthrough. Given the Covid-19 situation in the running back room, I’ll have a lot of interest in Andrews in this spot.
Also Consider:
Shultz, Hockenson
DST:
PIT, BAL, HOU
(My preference in that order)
