Week 6 Milly Maker Plays

Looking ahead to the Week 6, 11-game slate on Sunday, the only game in danger of missing is MIN/ATL with some Falcons’ COVID-19 positive tests. 11 teams are currently projected for 27+ implied team totals with NEP, MIA, IND, BAL all 7+ point favorites. As far as roster construction is concerned I’m wanting to spend down with some nice value QBs to fit the appropriately priced Mattison, in a smash spot start. I always like spending up at DST to be contrarian and the Colts DST is $4000 as -7.5 home favorites. Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

QB

Kirk Cousins, $5600, Minnesota Vikings

4.2% projected ownership

Captain Kirk comes in as this week’s, “play your QB against Atlanta,” play. This is less about Cousins and more about the defense he is facing. As a quick refresher, the Falcons allow the most DKPts to opposing QBs (33.1 gm/avg), the most passing TDs allowed (15), and the second most passing yards (1728.) This game is played in the dome and the Vikings have the highest implied team total on the slate (29.25.)  To quote Jay Z: “What more can I say?”  

Chalk QB:

Tanehill, Jackson

Let’s Get Weird QB:

Baker, Wentz

RB

David Montgomery, $5800, Chicago Bears

28.8% projected ownership

Sometimes you have to just eat the chalk when it’s too good and I believe this is likely one of those times. Since losing Tarik Cohen to a torn ACL in Week 3, the Bears have featured Montgomery in a lead role. In Weeks 4 and 5, Montgomery has seen 83% of his teams snaps (2nd highest), 68.1% of the teams market share rushing attempts (8th most) and 14 targets (5th most.)  For his elevated role he is simply too cheap to fade. 

Chalk RB:

Mattison, Henry, Mike Davis

Also Consider:

Aaron Jones, Ronald Jones, Gaskin

Let’s Get Weird RB:

Perine, Swift, Mixon

WR

Calvin Ridley, $7800, Atlanta Falcons

10.7% projected ownership

Ridley is a stud. He had one stinker game against GB in Week 4 but bounced back nicely against the Panthers last week. His targets this year have been elite with a 10.2 gm/avg (4th most among receivers) and 38.1% market share of Falcons red zone targets (5th best.)  The games’ 54.5 implied game total is second most and the spread is currently MIN -4.  Expect more of the same from the Falcons number one wideout (sorry Julio.)  

Chalk WR:

A.J. Brown, Thielen 

Also Consider:

Claypool (he has to be in your player pool for MME)

Let’s Get Weird WR:
Cobb, Landry, Marvin Jones, Jeudy

TE:

Mark Andrews, $6500, Baltimore Ravens

11.7% projected ownership

The Ravens have been a bit of a disappointment for the most part on offense having set such high expectations with last years’ barrage of point scoring.  Andrews, however, has been the one consistency fantasy owners have been able to rely on thusfar. Andrews ranks 3rd in DKPt (14.64 gm/avg) and 3rd in inside the 10 receiving touchdowns (3.) The Eagles’ defense gives up the 4th most DKPt to opposing TE (19.4 gm/avg.) Andrews also leads all TE in Air MS (27%) and Air Yards (356.) 

Also Consider:

Jonnu Smith, Hockenson 

Let’s Get Weird TE:

Ertz(I like Wentz/Ertz/Andrews contrarian game stack)

DST:

IND, BAL, NYG, MIA (this makes me nervous fwiw)

Let’s Get Weird DST:

NYJ, WAS

(My preference in that order)