It’s time for the real debate! No pandering and no nonsense. That’s right, during this CFB DFS preview I promise to offer a plan on the best way to move our lineups forward that all sides can agree on! As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 13 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|MEM@SMU 3:30PM ET|||1|||74.5|
|TA&[email protected]BAMA 3:30PM ET|||18|||52.5|
|OKST@KU 3:30PM ET|||22|||54|
|[email protected]UT 12:00PM ET|||12|||63|
|[email protected]UF 12:00PM ET|||17.5|||57|
|UNC@BC 3:30PM ET|||14|||54|
|[email protected]CINCY 3:30PM ET|||21.5|||46|
|[email protected]KSU 3:30PM ET|||2.5|||64|
|[email protected]UK 4:00PM ET|||6|||61.5|
|BAY@WVU 12:00PM ET|||3|||54|
|VT@DUKE 4:00PM ET|||12.5|||54|
|[email protected]PITT 12:00PM ET|||14|||47.5|
|[email protected]TENN 12:00PM ET|||12|||48|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Najee Harris and Chuba Hubbard at running back. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,350. This is the price range I will focus on each week. Before the world ends, let’s get to this week’s path toward CFB DFS greatness!
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Dazz Newsome | WR | North Carolina $5,400
I’ve caught them again! All the way back in Week 2, the Tar Heel offense was one of the chalkiest plays of the slate against Syracuse. Being arguably their most explosive player at any position, Mr. Newsome was priced accordingly in the upper 7k range. Unfortunately for many (including myself) who played Newsome, quarterback Sam Howell and the offense started slow and ended up leaning on the run game en route to a 31-7 snooze fest dub in their season opener.
Now, whatever wacked out algorithm DraftKings uses to price out their contests, it done fucked up right here. Newsome’s average line was 6-85-0.8 in UNC’s 12 games last season. His ceiling in some week’s has potential to reach the heights that Florida’s Kyle Pitts attained last week against the Ole’ Miss flying Kiffins.
Which I think makes this a good time to discuss the CFB DFS point we are at this season. With some teams now having two or three games in the books, pecking orders, depth charts, and backfield workloads are becoming more clear. Along with them, DK prices eventually catch up. It’s sad I know, but the glory days of seeing Jordan Addison and Deuce Vaughn under 4k are gone.
As this trend continues, finding value in that price range will be much more random week to week than identifying a simple misprice like Vaughn was. That’s why I think the 5k range will be more critical to target moving forward for potential blow up candidates. Because even if they don’t completely hit, they’ll likely have the higher floors on average statistically to keep your lineups competitive for cash lines. Speaking of this concept…
Ulysses Bentley IV | RB | SMU $5,900
All the way back in Week 1, I was one of probably 17 people on earth who watched SMU versus Texas St. and played the DK contest that day. Last season for SMU’s high octane offensive attack, Xavier Jones was the lead back that could do it all on the ground, in the air, and at the goal line. With him off to the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, this year’s projected lead back was sophomore TJ McDaniel. For obvious reasons, I paid up for him in that Week 1 contest at running back.
Of course, right away early in the game, SMU was in the red zone and McDaniel was on the sidelines–a perfect way to start my CFB DFS season. As I screamed expletive after expletive at my television watching Bentley score on a six yard run, I had to remind myself that these teams aren’t playing the same game that I am, and it’s probably time for me to get some semblance of an adult life.
After that sobering thought, I continued watching this redshirt freshman run with crazy ability and explosiveness wondering, “Is this guy just already their best option at running back?” Ultimately, Bentley IV finished his first game in college with a solid 11-49-2 line in the backup role to McDaniel. But, that role and the answer to my question would become much clearer in this Houston native’s second time out against North Texas two weeks later.
In that game, Bentley IV went nuts with a 19-227-3 line that included an 84 yard homerun score, and added a catch for 21 yards. He added another 104 yards and two scores on just six carries in cupcake dub over Stephen F. Austin in SMU’s next game. That only makes him the nation’s leading rusher with a YPC north of 10 yards, and tied for the nation’s lead in rushing touchdowns, coming into this week.
McDaniel absolutely still has a role, and it may even be the lead one. But, Bentley IV is the creme de la creme in this backfield. I would even argue their prices should be swapped, or at least much closer than this discrepancy. My expectation for UB4 is a 15 touch floor which is more than enough for him to do damage in a game that projects to be a back and forth shootout, with the highest total on the board. I also may get a goldfish just to name him Ulysses. Or, even Bentley for that matter.
CFB DFS Podcast
For my expanded thoughts on this slate, listen to my CFB DFS podcast below where I go through every game on the board. It is also available on every major podcast platform. Please share with anyone you think may be interested. Also, don’t forget to leave a review and subscribe. Enjoy!
Fading Quarterback Chalk
I was very surprised to see TCU quarterback Max Duggan in the backup role in their first game last week against Iowa St. I really liked how he improved as the starter throughout last season. Although his accuracy was erratic, he definitely displayed the arm strength required to be a big time college quarterback, and flashed some tantalizing ability with his legs, as well.
After doing some digging, I learned that the true sophomore had a medical procedure done to resolve a heart condition, and that he was still working himself back to full strength heading into their opening game. I’m assuming they were taking extra precautions with him because he did end up starting the second half, and almost led them to a comeback win. In those two quarters, Duggan went 16/19 for 241 yards (almost 13 yds/att), with three touchdown passes and one interception.
We all saw how vulnerable that Longhorn defense was against Texas Tech last week. If any word drops that he is cleared to start without any snap/series restrictions, he’s my quarterback this Saturday. In this same matchup last year, he lit Texas up for three total scores and 72 rushing yards.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
Unless it is someone like Bentley IV who has the ability to do a lot with a little, in what potentially is a crazy high scoring game, I detest paying for running backs in time shares. That is why Chuba and Najee will likely be everywhere for me. They have that tasty 20 plus touch floor, excellent matchup, passing catching ability, and run friendly game script combination that CFB DFS dollars desire.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 5 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.