Week 2 Thursday Night Game Analysis

Week 2 Thursday Night Game Analysis

Week 2 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Welcome to week 2 of 2020. This articles will focus you on my approach to fantasy football. I use Vegas metrics, defense against the positions, my fantasy sport professor’s rankings (FSPR) and my uncertainty analysis. 

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CLE

The figure below highlights the Vegas landscape of this game. 

• The Game Points are expected to be below average
• CLE is the favorite by a nice 12 points. 

Below the Vegas material is my Defense Against the Positions. Positive numbers suggest easy DAPs vs negative numbers mean a tougher DAPs.

The overall take away are both team should see easy defenses in rushing and passing. The CLE TE does fight a -4.2 TE DAP (tougher) while the CLE WRs face a -9 DAP (tougher). 

The trap for me is if these teams are easy then why did Vegas suggest a low scoring game. Vegas sees the easy defense but is “saying” these teams are not so good and both can not take advantage. 

Week 2 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Thursday Night Games always have great uncertainty and these two teams are no exceptions. I am using the only players who I have to. I am fading in DFS. This is not a game for gambles. 

CLE Analysis

This landscape I paint for CLE is shown below. These figures present:

• Team
• Positions (DST K QB RB TE and WR)
• FSPR (100 to 0)
• Player Uncertainty Level  * High * AVG  * Low
• Uncertainty implies the level of expectations are broad to narrow. 
• QB is 87 FSPR Low UNC
• RBs are both similarity ranked AVG to Low UNC
• TE is AVG UNC but lower ranked 
• WRs are OBJ and Landry at 87 and 82 FPSRs vs +6 WR DAP (ok)

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CIN

• Underdog 
• Expected to score 2 TDs? 
• Strong Caution

CIN Analysis

Week 2 Thursday Night Game Analysis.

• QB is Highly Uncertain and ranked at 42.
• Mixon is 90 ranked and low UNC (play if needed)
• CJ Uzomah is AVG UNC but 48. Some are using him as a play in DFS. He does see a nice +17 TE DAP? 
• Green and Boyd should be higher but the QB is holding them down. Both ranked near 80. Use if you have to. I am trying to find better WR2/3 types for this week. They face a -9 WR DAP! 

See my Week 2 Snaps Report

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2020/09/16/week-1-snaps-report-2/