Thursday Night Week 1 Rankings and Uncertainty Analysis.

Thursday Night Week 1

Thursday Night Week 1. The game tonight has KC vs. HOU. It is predicted to be a high scoring game with KC being favored by 10 points (37 vs. 17 KC vs. HOU). My methods are relatively straight forward.

I use VEGAS metrics to set the stage of scoring levels (High, Above Average, Below Average, or Low scoring).

Additionally, I use my own defense metrics based on 2019 data (first 3 weeks-ish). These are Defense against the Position (DAP) from a team’s defensive players. Therefore, If a team DAP is comfortable, they will have positive DAP numbers (green), or if severe, they will have negative numbers (red).

Thursday Night Week 1 Deep DAP Analysis 

Thursday Night Week 1. The figure below presents the overall DAP landscape for your thinking in setting line-ups and or Daily Fantasy Plays. I like the focus on the extremes in DFS. 

The figure below contains:

• Team
• Opponents
• Home vs. Away
• Rushing DAP
• Passing DAP
• Receiving DAP
• OFF DAP (Overall DAP all Positions)
• RB DAPs
• QB DAPs
• WR DAPs
• TE DAPs
• K DAPs
• DEF DAPs

DAP Summary

1. When HOU has the ball, they will have an easy time rushing.
2. When KC has the ball, they will have a rushing and passing success. 

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Fantasy Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis.

UNC Levels

Thursday Night Week 1. Remember, high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is enormous. Thus rankings of highly uncertain players should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked, but my rankings would be less accurate!

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 

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HOU

Thursday Night Week 1. In the past, many Thursday Night Games have been underwhelming for Fantasy purposes. Add the lack of preseasoning, and we could see a “messy” game. It does give me pause for DFS spending or using “tricky” players. I suggest conservative approaches may be in the next several weeks. 

QB and RBs

Watson is the highest-ranked player for HOU, but given the loss of Hopkins, I consider him high in uncertainty.

David Johnson 82.6 FSPR has the game script for an excellent rushing game as the KC DAPs for RBs are at a 15.6. I also have Duke as a potential short pass catcher at 58 FSPR. If you need to play them, but I might ease back. 

TEs

Interesting to note the KC is easy on TEs at a +24.2 DAP. In a TE premium league, Fells or Akins could deliver. In DFS showdowns, they might be the TE play as everyone is thinking of playing KC Kelce at TE. 

WRs

I have Fuller > Cooks due to injury issues, and Cooks is at an average uncertainty while Fuller is low. I also am watching Cobb, who was a free square in summer best balls for me. Look to see his targets. He has the pedigree to surprise. Stills and Coutee are longshot high reward plays in DFS.  They all have to fight a whopping -25 WR DAP from the KC DST. It could be a long night for the passing game from HOU. 

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KC

KC is favored by 10 points, and Vegas thinks KC produces points tonight

QB

Mahomes was drafted as the QB1 for 2020, and I have him at 100 FSPR. He gets to enjoy passing and hand-offs to the RBs. He may be on cruise control in the 4th quarter, and his fantasy points may not hit his peak.  He fights into a +9 QB DAP. 

RBs

The debut of CEH is tonight. I have him at average uncertainty but at a nice 88 FSPR number. He gets to go against an easy HOU DST giving out +10 RB DAP. CEH should have a great game.

If he does do well,  the public will anoint him for Canton already :).  Players are going to overreact and get ready to take advantage of trades etc. The other RBs are there for relief. 

TEs

Kelce was drafted 1 or 2 in 2020 drafts and is an always play. I rank him first this week at 100 FSPR low uncertainty. He gets an average DAP and should collect a TD or two? No surprises :). 

WRs 

The WRs are a fine crew and face an easy HOU DAP of +7. They should collect 2 to 3 scores. Hill is going to get his share plus as I rank him at 98 FSPR. The surprise might be Hardman at 58 or Watkins at 55. It is hard for me to choose between them, though. The game script could lead to more rushing late in the game, so the WRs might be a little light in scoring. 

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