NASCAR Best Bets: Geico 500

This week NASCAR rolls into Talladega Motor Speedway for the Geico 500 and just like Ricky Bobby, these drivers want to go fast. This week will have more to do with the car than the drivers ability to hug corners to feather the brake pedal.

So, who are my best bets for the Geico 500?

Betting odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook. Driver stats courtesy Driver Averages and Racing Reference.

Joey Logano – Win (+900)

I finally got on the Joey Logano train a week ago and he rewarded me with one of his worst races of the season. A pick that was only compounded by choosing him over Denny Hamlin, the eventual winner of the race.

That said, going back to Logano this week feels like the move. He has a history of success including two wins and five Top-5 finishes over his last seven trips to the track.

While he hasn’t found victory lane in his last three visits to Talladega Motor Speedway, he has finshed Top-5 in two races. Logano is also tied with Brad Keselowski for third most laps led over that timeframe.

This week let’s bet on Logano rebounding in a big way this week and performing well on track that he has dominated. A Top-3 bet is +275 and is a great way to look for a little less risk but still a solid payday.

Aric Almirola – Top 5 Finish (+375)

As of late, it has been wild ride for anyone backing Aric Almirola. He has been in contention in many of the races but issues keep creeping up causing his numbers to look worse than they should be. In fact, car trouble has caused him to not finish two of the last six races.

It seems as though Almirola may be finding his form after a fifth place finish a week ago. Now, he is heading to a track in Talladega that he has had success in the past.

Over his last three races, Almirola has a win, a Top-5 and a Top-10. Expand the data to the last seven races and you will see he has a Top-10 finish each time with 4 Top-5 finishes over that span.

This week I am targeting another Top-5 finish at +375. Backing him at +550 for a Top-3 finish and 20/1 for a win also makes a ton of sense this week if your’e willing to take on the risk.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Top 10 Finish (+125)

Like Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has a great history at Talladega. Over his last seven trips to the track, he has four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes. He has led the fifth most laps over that timeframe.

His recent performance has left a lot to be desired but I expect him to get back on track this week. Like Almirola, you can back him at +550 for a Top-3 and 20/1 for a win. Unlike Almirola, backing Stenhouse to win feels like a bridge too far. A Top-3 finish feels more viable especially if you’re looking for a bigger payday.

Good luck on Sunday and cash some tickets!

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