NASCAR gives us an extra race as they look to catch up from the shutdown. This week they roll into Martinsville Speedway. The Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 betting preview gives you three drivers who make compelling cases to back at their current price. They all have the ability to end up victory lane.
Start Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Date: Wednesday, June 10th, 2020
Laps: 500 (263 miles)
Watch: Fox Sports One and Fox Sports GO
So, who are the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Best Bets for Wednesday Night’s race?
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All odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook and the stats come via DriverAverages.com.
Martin Truex +550
While I typically don’t like to venture this far up the board, sometimes the market will dictate it’s the right play. This week Martin Truex makes a compelling case for backing. Last week Truex won two stages and probably should have won the race. Still a top 3 finish is still impressive.
Over the last six races his form has been great. He has a Top-5 average finish over that period with 5 Top-10’s, one of which was a Top-5. He has also led the 4th most laps over
Party Marty Truex has a history of success at Martinsville. Over his last four trips to the track he has three Top-5 finishes including a trip to victory lane. He also only trails Brad Keselowski for the most laps led over that period.
He will be starting in the 5th spot for Wednesday’s race. This should hopefully help him get out in front of the pack and run well.
Denny Hamlin +650
When the odds opened for Denny Hamlin on DraftKings Sportsbook, Denny Hamlin was 9/1 to win Wednesday’s race. A number that seemed off and one that I knew I would jump all over. However that number quickly disappeared as someone with influence moved that number quickly to 6.5/1. That is a sizable move especially when you consider it is a mid-week NASCAR race.
So why the Hamlin optimism? His recent form has been rock solid. Over his last 6 races, Hamlin has four Top-5 finishes including a win. He has the 5th best average finish and has led the 5th most laps.
At Martinsville, Hamlin has also performed well. Over his last four races, Hamlin is tied with Kyle Busch for third best average finish. He has led the 5th most laps over that time period.
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Even at his shortened odds, I am still bullish on backing Hamlin. I expect him to be in the mix as they approach the checkered flag. If the number moves inside 6/1 however I would look for alternate ways to back him. I would target overvalued drivers in match-up props.
Ryan Blaney +1000
Looking for the best odds on the board? Look no further than Ryan Blaney who is 10/1 to win and +275 for a Top-3 finish. Both bets will be on my card for Wednesday.
His recent form is right there with Hamlin and Truex but at twice the odds. He has three Top-5 finishes over his last six races. He has the 11th best average finishing position and has led the 10th most laps over that period.
As for at Martinsville, Blaney has done well there also. He has the 6th best average finishing position posting three Top-5 finishes over that period.
Blaney is due to take home a checkered flag and I think it comes Wednesday night. As I mentioned I will back him for an outright win and a Top-3 finish at his current odds.
It’s a Trap
Kevin Harvick +1100
While Kevin Harvick has been on fire of late, his lack of career success at Martinsville should give pause to anyone looking to back him this week. In 37 career starts at the track, Harvick only has 1 win and 5 Top-5 finishes. He does come into this week with 4 straight Top-10 finishes but only one Top-5.
This number has moved from 10/1 to 11/1 since posting. It seems like others are sharing some of my pessimism with Harvick. If you believe he will stay hot than by all means back him at this number but I would look elsewhere.
Joey Logano +850
Joey Logano once again finds himself priced at the top of the board this week at Martinsville. In fact, his number shrank, if only slightly from +900 to +850. The question becomes, should Logano be priced this short?
If you want to argue he should be, you would likely start with track history. He is one of four drivers to get a win at this track over the last four trips to Martinsville. He has also finished in the Top-10 five of his last eight races at the track.
However, Logano has not shown the form he is known for since the NASCAR season restarted. He has Top-10 finishes in only half of the six races since the restart and no Top-5 finishes. Only once this season has he improved on his starting position. You could argue a driver as talented as Logano is poised to break out and it could easily come this week. However I have concern that the lack of practice time to get the car tuned could be leading to recent form.
Like with Harvick, I wouldn’t blame anyone who wanted to back him but I will be looking elsewhere this week.
Good luck on Wednesday and make sure to return to Fake Pigskin later this week as we get ready for Sunday’s race at Homestead in Miami. Also check out the Angle of Pursuit on YouTube prior to race day for all the NASCAR race betting previews.